Proteína C reactiva y escala SOFA: una simple escala como factor predictivo temprano de la necesidad de cuidados críticos en los pacientes con neumonía causada por COVID-19 en España

ObjectiveTo identify potential markers at admission predicting the need for critical care in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.Material and methodsAn approved, observational, retrospective study was conducted between March 15 to April 15, 2020. 150 adult patients aged less than 75 with Charlson comorbidity index ≤ 6 diagnosed with COVID-19 pneumonia were included. Seventy-five patients were randomly selected from those admitted to the critical care units (critical care group [CG]) and seventy-five hospitalized patients who did not require critical care (non-critical care group [nCG]) represent the control group. One additional cohort of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 were used to validate the score.Measurements and main resultsMultivariable regression showed increasing odds of in-hospital critical care associated with increased C-reactive protein (CRP) (odds ratio 1.052 [1.009-1.101]; P = .0043) and higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (1.968 [1.389-2.590]; P < .0001), both at the time of hospital admission. The AUC-ROC for the combined model was 0.83 (0.76-0.90) (vs AUC-ROC SOFA P < .05). The AUC-ROC for the validation cohort was 0.89 (0.82-0.95) (P > 0.05 vs AUC-ROC development).ConclusionPatients COVID-19 presenting at admission SOFA score ≥ 2 combined with CRP ≥ 9,1 mg/mL could be at high risk to require critical care.     

Machine learning-based scoring system to predict in-hospital outcomes in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

BackgroundThe evolution of patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is still hard to predict, even after several months of dealing with the pandemic.AimsTo develop and validate a score to predict outcomes in patients hospitalized with COVID-19.MethodsAll consecutive adults hospitalized for COVID-19 from February to April 2020 were included in a nationwide observational study. Primary composite outcome was transfer to an intensive care unit from an emergency department or conventional ward, or in-hospital death. A score that estimates the risk of experiencing the primary outcome was constructed from a derivation cohort using stacked LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator), and was tested in a validation cohort.ResultsAmong 2873 patients analysed (57.9% men; 66.6 ± 17.0 years), the primary outcome occurred in 838 (29.2%) patients: 551 (19.2%) were transferred to an intensive care unit; and 287 (10.0%) died in-hospital without transfer to an intensive care unit. Using stacked LASSO, we identified 11 variables independently associated with the primary outcome in multivariable analysis in the derivation cohort (n = 2313), including demographics (sex), triage vitals (body temperature, dyspnoea, respiratory rate, fraction of inspired oxygen, blood oxygen saturation) and biological variables (pH, platelets, C-reactive protein, aspartate aminotransferase, estimated glomerular filtration rate). The Critical COVID-19 France (CCF) risk score was then developed, and displayed accurate calibration and discrimination in the derivation cohort, with C-statistics of 0.78 (95% confidence interval 0.75–0.80). The CCF risk score performed significantly better (i.e. higher C-statistics) than the usual critical care risk scores.ConclusionsThe CCF risk score was built using data collected routinely at hospital admission to predict outcomes in patients with COVID-19. This score holds promise to improve early triage of patients and allocation of healthcare resources.     

Coagulofibrinolytic changes in patients with disseminated intravascular coagulation associated with post-cardiac arrest syndrome― Fibrinolytic shutdown and insufficient activation of fibrinolysis lead to organ dysfunction

Introduction

Post-cardiac arrest syndrome (PCAS) is often associated with disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC), thus leading to the development of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS). The aim of this study was to examine the pathophysiological relationships between coagulation, fibrinolysis and fibrinolytic shutdown by evaluating the levels of coagulofibrinolytic markers, including soluble fibrin, thrombin-activatable fibrinolysis inhibitor (TAFI), tissue plasminogen activator-plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 complex (tPAIC), plasmin-alpha2 plasmin inhibitor complex (PPIC), neutrophil elastase and fibrin degradation product by neutrophil elastase (EXDP).

Materials and Methods

Fifty-two resuscitated patients were divided into two groups: 22 DIC and 30 non-DIC patients.

Results

The levels of soluble fibrin, PPIC, tPAIC, EXDP and neutrophil elastase in the DIC patients with PCAS were significantly higher than those observed in the non-DIC patients. The values of the tPAIC and JAAM DIC scores were found to be independent predictors of increased SOFA scores in the DIC patients. The MODS patients demonstrated significantly higher levels of soluble fibrin and tPAIC; however, the levels of TAFI and EXDP were identical between the patients with and without MODS. In addition, positive correlations were observed between the levels of tPAIC and EXDP in the patients with non-MODS; however, no correlations were observed between these markers in the MODS patients.

Conclusions

Thrombin activation and fibrinolytic shutdown play important roles in the development of organ dysfunction in PCAS patients. Neutrophil elastase-mediated fibrinolysis cannot overcome the fibrinolytic shutdown that occurs in DIC patients with PCAS, thus resulting in the development of MODS.     

血小板数量动态变化对脓毒症预后预测价值的初步探讨

摘要：目的　探讨血小板数量动态变化对脓毒症28 d病死率的预测价值。方法　回顾性研究2018年1月—2019年12月我院重症监护病房（ICU）连续收治的脓毒症患者,采集入ICU后14 d内血小板计数（PLT）动态数据。以第7天PLT较基线降低幅度大于20%为标准定义进行性血小板减少（PTCP）,绘制ROC曲线评价PTCP和序贯器官衰竭（SOFA）评分对脓毒症28 d病死率的预测价值。应用Logistic回归分析脓毒症28 d病死率的危险因素。采用Kaplan-Meier法对合并与未合并PTCP患者进行生存分析。结果　148例脓毒症患者纳入研究,死亡组30例,生存组118例,28 d病死率20.3%。与生存组相比,死亡组SOFA评分、高值D-二聚体（hD-dimer）占比、TCP、PTCP发生率显著升高（P＜0.01）。入院5 d后死亡组PLT呈进行性下降趋势,第7、10、14天生存组PLT高于死亡组,差异有统计学意义（P＜0.01）。PTCP、SOFA以及两者联合预测脓毒症死亡风险的ROC曲线下面积分别为0.683、0.691及0.778。Logistic回归显示,PTCP是脓毒症28 d死亡独立危险因素（P＜0.01）。Kaplan-Meier生存分析显示,合并PTCP时28 d生存率明显降低（P＜0.01）。结论　PTCP是脓毒症28 d死亡的独立危险因素;PTCP对脓毒症28 d病死率有一定预测价值,联合基线SOFA评分可提高预测效能。     

Validación de las escalas de APACHE II y SOFA en 2 cohortes de pacientes con sospecha de infección y sepsis,no ingresados en unidades de cuidados críticos

ObjectiveTo validate the APACHE II and SOFA scores in patients with suspected infection in clinical settings other than intensive care units.Materials and methodsA secondary analysis was performed on 2,530 adult patients participating in 2 cohort studies, with suspected infection as admission diagnosis within the first 24 h of hospitalization. The performance of both scoring systems was studied in order to set calibration and discrimination, respectively, on the outcomes such as mortality, admission to Intensive Care Unit, development of septic shock, or multiple organ dysfunctions.ResultsThe AUC-ROC values for mortality at discharge and on day 28 in the first cohort were around 0.50 for the SOFA and APACHE II scores; whereas for the second cohort the discrimination value was around 0.70. Calibration of both scoring systems for primary outcomes, according to Hosmer-Lemeshow test, showed p > .05 in the first cohort; while in the second cohort calibration it only showed a p > .05 in the case of the SOFA for mortality at hospital discharge.ConclusionThis validation study of SOFA and APACHE II scores in patients with suspected infection in-hospital units other than the Intensive Care Unit, showed no consistent performance for calibration and discrimination. Its application in emergency and in-hospital patients is limited.     

Admission Braden Skin Score Independently Predicts Mortality in Cardiac Intensive Care Patients

ObjectiveTo determine whether a low Braden skin score (BSS), reflecting increased risk for skin pressure injury, would predict lower survival in cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) patients after adjustment for illness severity and comorbidities.Patients and MethodsThis retrospective cohort study included consecutive unique adult patients admitted to a single tertiary care referral hospital CICU from January 1, 2007, through December 31, 2015, who had a BSS documented on CICU admission. The primary outcome was all-cause hospital mortality, using elastic net penalized logistic regression to determine predictors of hospital mortality. The secondary outcome was all-cause post-discharge mortality, using Cox proportional hazards models to determine predictors of post-discharge mortality.ResultsThe study included 9552 patients with a mean age of 67.4±15.2 years (3589 [37.6%] were females) and a hospital mortality rate of 8.3%. Admission BSS was inversely associated with hospital mortality (unadjusted odds ratio, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.68-0.72; P<.001; area under the receiver operator curve, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.78-0.82), with increased short-term mortality as a function of decreasing admission BSS. After adjustment for illness severity and comorbidities using multivariable analysis, admission BSS remained inversely associated with hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.85-0.92; P<.001). Among hospital survivors, admission BSS was inversely associated with post-discharge mortality after adjustment for illness severity and comorbidities (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.88-0. 90; P<.001).ConclusionThe admission BSS, a simple inexpensive bedside nursing assessment potentially reflecting frailty and overall illness acuity, was independently associated with hospital and post-discharge mortality when added to established multiparametric illness severity scores among contemporary CICU patients.     

Mortality and risk factor analysis for Candida blood stream infection: A multicenter study

Candida blood stream infection (candidemia) is severe systemic infection mainly develops after intensive medical cares. The mortality of candidemia is affected by the underlying conditions, causative agents and the initial management. We retrospectively analyzed mortality-related risk factors in cases of candidemia between April 2011 and March 2016 in five regional hospitals in Japan. We conducted bivariate and multivariate analysis of factors including causative Candida species, patients' predisposing conditions, and treatment strategies, such as empirically selected antifungal drug and time to appropriate antifungal treatment, to elucidate their effects on 30-day mortality. The study enrolled 289 cases of candidemia in adults. Overall 30-day mortality was 27.7%. Forty-nine cases (17.0%) were community-acquired. Bivariate analysis found advanced age, high Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, and prior antibiotics use as risk factors for high mortality; however community-acquired candidemia, C. parapsilosis candidemia, obtaining follow-up blood culture, and empiric treatment with fluconazole were associated with low mortality. Logistic regression revealed age ≥65 years (adjusted odds ratio, 2.13) and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score ≥6 (6.30) as risk factors for 30-day mortality. In contrast, obtaining follow-up blood culture (0.38) and empiric treatment with fluconazole (0.32) were found to be protective factors. The cases with candidemia in associated with advanced age and poor general health conditions should be closely monitored. Obtaining follow-up blood culture contributed to an improved prognosis.