In vitro to in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) for next-generation risk assessment (NGRA) of chemicals requires computational modeling and faces unique challenges. Using mitochondria-related toxicity data of troglitazone (TGZ), a prototype drug known for liver toxicity, from HepaRG, HepG2, HC-04, and primary human hepatocytes, we explored inherent uncertainties in IVIVE, including cell models, cellular response endpoints, and dose metrics. A human population physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for TGZ was developed to predict in vivo doses from in vitro point-of-departure (POD) concentrations. Compared to the 200–800 mg/d dose range of TGZ where liver injury was observed clinically, the predicted POD doses for the mean and top one percentile of the PBPK population were 28–372 and 15–178 mg/d respectively based on Cmax dosimetry, and 185–2552 and 83–1010 mg/d respectively based on AUC. In conclusion, although with many uncertainties, integrating in vitro assays and PBPK modeling is promising in informing liver toxicity-inducing TGZ doses. 相似文献
ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to investigate the association between morphological variation and postsurgical pulmonary vein (PV) stenosis (PPVS) in patients with cardiac total anomalous pulmonary venous connection (TAPVC).MethodsThis single-center, retrospective study included 168 pediatric patients who underwent surgical repair of cardiac TAPVC from 2013 to 2019 (connection to the coronary sinus [CS], n = 136; connection directly to the right atrium [RA], n = 32). Three-dimensional computed tomography modeling and geometric analysis were performed to investigate the morphological features; their relevance to the PPVS was examined.ResultsThe connection type had no association with PPVS (CS type: 18% vs right atrial type: 19%; P = .89) but there was a higher incidence of PPVS in patients with a single PV orifice than > 1 orifice (P < .001). Confluence-to-total PV area ratio (hazard ratio, 4.78, 95% CI, 1.86-12.32; P = .001) and length of drainage route (hazard ratio, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.14-1.31; P < .001) had a 4- and 1-fold increase in the risk for PPVS in the CS type after adjustment for age and preoperative pulmonary venous obstruction. In the right atrial type, those with anomalous PV return to the RA roof were more likely to develop PPVS than to the posterior wall of the RA (P < .001).ConclusionsThe number of inter-junction PV orifice correlated with PPVS development in cardiac TAPVC. The confluence-to-total PV ratio, length of drainage route, and anomalous PV return to the RA roof are important predictors for PPVS. Morphological subcategorization in this clinical setting can potentially assist in surgical decision-making. 相似文献
Payers frequently rely on budget impact model (BIM) results to help determine drug coverage policy and its effect on their bottom line. It is unclear whether BIMs typically overestimate or underestimate real-world budget impact.
Objective
We examined how different modeling assumptions influenced the results of 6 BIMs from the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER).
Study Design
Retrospective analysis of pharmaceutical sales data.
Methods
From ICER reports issued before 2016, we collected estimates of 3 BIM outputs: aggregate therapy cost (ie, cost to treat the patient population with a particular therapy), therapy uptake, and price. We compared these against real-world estimates that we generated using drug sales data. We considered 2 classes of BIM estimates: those forecasting future uptake of new agents, which assumed “unmanaged uptake,” and those describing the contemporaneous market state (ie, estimates of current, managed uptake and budget impact for compounds already on the market).
Results
Differences between ICER's estimates and our own were largest for forecasted studies. Here, ICER's uptake estimates exceeded real-world estimates by factors ranging from 7.4 (sacubitril/valsartan) to 54 (hepatitis C treatments). The “unmanaged uptake” assumption (removed from ICER's approach in 2017) yields large deviations between BIM estimates and real-world consumption. Nevertheless, in some cases, ICER's BIMs that relied on current market estimates also deviated substantially from real-world sales data.
Conclusions
This study highlights challenges with forecasting budget impact. In particular, assumptions about uptake and data source selection can greatly influence the accuracy of results. 相似文献
Purpose: To study, with computational models, the utility of power modulation to reduce tissue temperature heterogeneity for variable nanoparticle distributions in magnetic nanoparticle hyperthermia.
Methods: Tumour and surrounding tissue were modeled by elliptical two- and three-dimensional computational phantoms having six different nanoparticle distributions. Nanoparticles were modeled as point heat sources having amplitude-dependent loss power. The total number of nanoparticles was fixed, and their spatial distribution and heat output were varied. Heat transfer was computed by solving the Pennes’ bioheat equation using finite element methods (FEM) with temperature-dependent blood perfusion. Local temperature was regulated using a proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller. Tissue temperature, thermal dose and tissue damage were calculated. The required minimum thermal dose delivered to the tumor was kept constant, and heating power was adjusted for comparison of both the heating methods.
Results: Modulated power heating produced lower and more homogeneous temperature distributions than did constant power heating for all studied nanoparticle distributions. For a concentrated nanoparticle distribution, located off-center within the tumor, the maximum temperatures inside the tumor were 16% lower for modulated power heating when compared to constant power heating. This resulted in less damage to surrounding normal tissue. Modulated power heating reached target thermal doses up to nine-fold more rapidly when compared to constant power heating.
Conclusions: Controlling the temperature at the tumor-healthy tissue boundary by modulating the heating power of magnetic nanoparticles demonstrably compensates for a variable nanoparticle distribution to deliver effective treatment. 相似文献
This study aimed at deriving occupational thresholds of toxicological concern for inhalation exposure to systemically-acting organic chemicals using predicted internal doses. The latter were also used to evaluate the quantitative relationship between occupational exposure limit and internal dose. Three internal dose measures were identified for investigation: (i) the daily area under the venous blood concentration vs. time curve, (ii) the daily rate of the amount of parent chemical metabolized, and (iii) the maximum venous blood concentration at the end of an 8-hr work shift. A dataset of 276 organic chemicals with 8-hr threshold limit values-time-weighted average was compiled along with their molecular structure and Cramer classes (Class I: low toxicity, Class II: intermediate toxicity, Class III: suggestive of significant toxicity). Using a human physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model, the three identified dose metrics were predicted for an 8-hr occupational inhalation exposure to the threshold limit value for each chemical. Distributional analyses of the predicted dose metrics were performed to identify the percentile values corresponding to the occupational thresholds of toxicological concern. Also, simple linear regression analyses were performed to evaluate the relationship between the 8-hr threshold limit value and each of the predicted dose metrics, respectively. No threshold of toxicological concern could be derived for class II due to few chemicals. Based on the daily rate of the amount of parent chemical metabolized, the proposed internal dose-based occupational thresholds of toxicological concern were 5.61?×?10?2 and 9?×?10?4 mmol/d at the 10th percentile level for classes I and III, respectively, while they were 4.55?×?10?1 and 8.5?×?10?3 mmol/d at the 25th percentile level. Even though high and significant correlations were observed between the 8-hr threshold limit values and the predicted dose metrics, the one with the rate of the amount of chemical metabolized was remarkable regardless of the Cramer class (r2 = 0.81; n = 276). The proposed internal dose-based occupational thresholds of toxicological concern are potentially useful for screening-level assessments as well as prioritization within an integrated occupational risk assessment framework. 相似文献
In the Netherlands, safe and sufficient drinking water is provided to the general population by ten drinking water companies. To guarantee safe drinking water the World Health Organization (WHO) developed a Water Safety Plan (WSP), a Risk Assessment and a Risk Management (RA/RM) framework. The objective of the study was to identify legally required RA approaches, to document application of RA/RM activities at Dutch drinking water companies and to determine to what extent these RA/RM activities as a whole cover all the elements of the WHO WSP approach. This study could be of interest to both managers of large water utilities and decision makers.The assessment was performed by means of a policy review and interviews with two to four staff members involved in RA/RM from all ten Dutch drinking water companies combined with a joint workshop. The drinking water companies are well aware of the potential hazards and risks that can influence the drinking water quality. To guarantee the supply of safe and sufficient drinking water, the Dutch drinking water sector uses six different legally required RA/RM approaches. This study shows that by using the six legally required RA/RM approaches, all WSP steps are covered. WSP entails a generic risk assessment for identifying all hazards and hazardous events from source to tap, whereas the six legally required RA/RM each focus on specific risks at an advanced level. Each risk assessment provides information on specific hazards and hazardous events covering a part of the water supply chain. These legal requirements are complemented with additional RA/RM activities at sector and water company level such as codes of practices and standard operating procedures. The outcomes of all RA/RM approaches combined provide information from source to tap. When using multiple RA/RM approaches, it is crucial to share and combine information derived from the different activities. 相似文献
Studies on the exposure of children to sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) at an early age may contribute to better understand the common causes and the temporal order of the relationships between obesity and asthma in early childhood. The objective of this study was to estimate the association between SSB and child asthma traits in the 2nd year of life, modeling direct and indirect pathways mediated by the highest BMI-z of the child and allergic inflammation. Data from the BRISA cohort, São Luís-MA, Brazil (n = 1140), were obtained from the baseline and from the follow-up performed at the 2nd year of life. The main explanatory variable was the calories from added sugars in SSBs as a percentage of the total daily energy intake. The outcome child asthma traits was a latent variable deduced from four indicators: medical diagnosis of asthma, wheezing, emergency visit due to intense wheezing, and medical diagnosis of rhinitis. A high percentage of daily calories from sugars added to SSBs was directly associated with higher values of child asthma traits (standardized coefficient (SC = 0.073; P = .030)). High levels of eosinophils were also directly associated with child asthma traits (SC = 0.118; P = .049). No mediation pathways were observed via greater BMI-z or eosinophil counts. Therefore, early exposure of children to SSB may contribute to increased risk of childhood asthma, preceding the link between sugar consumption and overweight/obesity, not yet evident in children in the first 2 years of life. 相似文献