The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 epidemic growth in the 37 OECD member states

We estimated the impact of a comprehensive set of non-pharmeceutical interventions on the COVID-19 epidemic growth rate across the 37 member states of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic and between October and December 2020. For this task, we conducted a data-driven, longitudinal analysis using a multilevel modelling approach with both maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation. We found that during the early phase of the epidemic: implementing restrictions on gatherings of more than 100 people, between 11 and 100 people, and 10 people or less was associated with a respective average reduction of 2.58%, 2.78% and 2.81% in the daily growth rate in weekly confirmed cases; requiring closing for some sectors or for all but essential workplaces with an average reduction of 1.51% and 1.78%; requiring closing of some school levels or all school levels with an average reduction of 1.12% or 1.65%; recommending mask wearing with an average reduction of 0.45%, requiring mask wearing country-wide in specific public spaces or in specific geographical areas within the country with an average reduction of 0.44%, requiring mask-wearing country-wide in all public places or all public places where social distancing is not possible with an average reduction of 0.96%; and number of tests per thousand population with an average reduction of 0.02% per unit increase. Between October and December 2020 work closing requirements and testing policy were significant predictors of the epidemic growth rate. These findings provide evidence to support policy decision-making regarding which NPIs to implement to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.

     

Willingness to pay for cataract surgery is much lower than actual costs in Zamfara state,northern Nigeria

Purpose: Direct medical and non-medical costs incurred by those undergoing subsidised cataract surgery at Gusau eye clinic, Zamfara state, were recently determined. The aim of this study was to assess the willingness to pay for cataract surgery among adults with severe visual impairment or blindness from cataract in rural Zamfara and to compare this to actual costs.

Methods: In three rural villages served by Gusau eye clinic, key informants helped identify 80 adults with bilateral severe visual impairment or blindness (<6/60), with cataract being the cause in at least one eye. The median amount participants were willing to pay for cataract surgery was determined. The proportion willing to pay actual costs of the (i) subsidised surgical fee (US$18.5), (ii) average non-medical expenses (US$25.2), and (iii) average total expenses (US$51.2) at Gusau eye clinic were calculated. Where participants would seek funds for surgery was determined.

Results: Among 80 participants (38% women), most (n = 73, 91%) were willing to pay something, ranging from <US$1 to US$186 (median US$18.5, interquartile range 6.2–31.1). Approximately half of the participants (n = 41) were willing to pay US$18.5 (78% men), one-third (n = 26) were willing to pay US$25.2 (77% men); and 11% (n = 9) were willing to pay US$51.2 (all men). Only six participants (8%) already had the money to pay; one quarter (n = 20) would need to sell possessions to raise the funds.

Conclusion: Willingness to pay for cataract surgery among adults with operable cataract in rural Zamfara state is far lower than current costs of undergoing surgery. People who were widowed—most of whom were women—were willing to pay least. Further financial support is required for cataract surgery to be universally accessible.