PREDICT-GTN 1: Can we improve the FIGO scoring system in gestational trophoblastic neoplasia?

Gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN) patients are treated according to the eight-variable International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) scoring system, that aims to predict first-line single-agent chemotherapy resistance. FIGO is imperfect with one-third of low-risk patients developing disease resistance to first-line single-agent chemotherapy. We aimed to generate simplified models that improve upon FIGO. Logistic regression (LR) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) modelling (n = 4191) generated six models (M1-6). M1, all eight FIGO variables (scored data); M2, all eight FIGO variables (scored and raw data); M3, nonimaging variables (scored data); M4, nonimaging variables (scored and raw data); M5, imaging variables (scored data); and M6, pretreatment hCG (raw data) + imaging variables (scored data). Performance was compared to FIGO using true and false positive rates, positive and negative predictive values, diagnostic odds ratio, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, Bland-Altman calibration plots, decision curve analysis and contingency tables. M1-6 were calibrated and outperformed FIGO on true positive rate and positive predictive value. Using LR and MLP, M1, M2 and M4 generated small improvements to the ROC curve and decision curve analysis. M3, M5 and M6 matched FIGO or performed less well. Compared to FIGO, most (excluding LR M4 and MLP M5) had significant discordance in patient classification (McNemar's test P < .05); 55-112 undertreated, 46-206 overtreated. Statistical modelling yielded only small gains over FIGO performance, arising through recategorisation of treatment-resistant patients, with a significant proportion of under/overtreatment as the available data have been used a priori to allocate primary chemotherapy. Streamlining FIGO should now be the focus.     

The role of the Black Church in the lives of young Black men who have sex with men

In the USA, the Black Church is among the most important institutions in the Black community, offering numerous spiritual, social and health benefits. Yet, the presence of homonegativity in many Black Churches may mitigate those effects for gay Black youth. This research examines the role of the Church in the lives of gay and bisexual Black youth to understand how they reconcile any tension between their religious and sexual identities. Through interviews with pastors of Black churches (n = 21) and young Black men who have sex with men (n = 30), we explored homonegativity and young men’s experiences within the Black Church. Findings reveal that despite the prevalence of homonegativity within Black churches, religious involvement remains important for young men and many remain involved in non-affirming churches. The importance of the Church for young men stems from their significant involvement as youth and the integration of religion, family and community. Young men may not be able to leave their religious homes as readily as other gay youth given the cultural relevance of the Church. As a result, young men made attempts to conceal their sexuality in church to avoid shame and gossip and find opportunities to balance their sexuality and religiosity.     

Training the Anesthesiologist Trainer: Enhancing the Quality of Feedback during Human Patient Simulations

An essential piece of anesthesiologist training is attending resident feedback sessions. Yet, few attending anesthesiologists have formal teaching education and little time to acquire it. In this field experiment, attending physicians were randomly assigned to a control group or to receive 30 minutes of feedback training inspired by Implicit Person Theory (IPT). As such, IPT training encouraged physicians to praise process-oriented learning while discouraging performance-oriented mindsets. Attending physicians then observed residents participate in a human patient simulation (HPS) activity and provided residents with feedback. Content and statistical analyses revealed trained attending physicians praised learning goals and challenged performance goals more often than untrained physicians during feedback sessions. Thus, the training provides a rapid method of enhancing the quality of attending physicians’ training communication.     

Challenges with Forecasting Budget Impact: A Case Study of Six ICER Reports

Background

Payers frequently rely on budget impact model (BIM) results to help determine drug coverage policy and its effect on their bottom line. It is unclear whether BIMs typically overestimate or underestimate real-world budget impact.

Prognostic tools for hypertrophic scar formation based on fundamental differences in systemic immunity

Unpredictable hypertrophic scarring (HS) occurs after approximately 35% of all surgical procedures and causes significant physical and psychological complaints. Parallel to the need to understanding the mechanisms underlying HS formation, a prognostic tool is needed. The objective was to determine whether (systemic) immunological differences exist between patients who develop HS and those who develop normotrophic scars (NS) and to assess whether those differences can be used to identify patients prone to developing HS. A prospective cohort study with NS and HS groups in which (a) cytokine release by peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) and (b) the irritation threshold (IT) after an irritant (sodium lauryl sulphate) patch test was evaluated. Univariate regression analysis of PBMC cytokine secretion showed that low MCP‐1, IL‐8, IL‐18 and IL‐23 levels have a strong correlation with HS (P < .010‐0.004; AUC = 0.790‐0.883). Notably, combinations of two or three cytokines (TNF‐a, MCP‐1 and IL‐23; AUC: 0.942, Nagelkerke R²: 0.727) showed an improved AUC indicating a better correlation with HS than single cytokine analysis. These combination models produce good prognostic results over a broad probability range (sensitivity: 93.8%, specificity 86.7%, accuracy 90,25% between probability 0.3 and 0.7). Furthermore, the HS group had a lower IT than the NS group and an accuracy of 68%. In conclusion, very fundamental immunological differences exist between individuals who develop HS and those who do not, whereas the cytokine assay forms the basis of a predictive prognostic test for HS formation, the less invasive, easily performed irritant skin patch test is more accessible for daily practice.