Validation of PATHFx 2.0: An open-source tool for estimating survival in patients undergoing pathologic fracture fixation

Treatment decisions in patients with metastatic bone disease rely on accurate survival estimation. We developed the original PATHFx models using expensive, proprietary software and now seek to provide a more cost-effective solution. Using open-source machine learning software to create PATHFx version 2.0, we asked whether PATHFx 2.0 could be created using open-source methods and externally validated in two unique patient populations. The training set of a well-characterized, database records of 189 patients and the bnlearn package within R Version 3.5.1 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing), was used to establish a series of Bayesian belief network models designed to predict survival at 1, 3, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. Each was externally validated in both a Scandinavian (n = 815 patients) and a Japanese (n = 261 patients) data set. Brier scores and receiver operating characteristic curves to assessed discriminatory ability. Decision curve analysis (DCA) evaluated whether models should be used clinically. DCA showed that the model should be used clinically at all time points in the Scandinavian data set. For the 1-month time point, DCA of the Japanese data set suggested to expect better outcomes assuming all patients will survive greater than 1 month. Brier scores for each curve demonstrate that the models are accurate at each time point. Statement of Clinical Significance: we successfully transitioned to PATHFx 2.0 using open-source software and externally validated it in two unique patient populations, which can be used as a cost-effective option to guide surgical decisions in patients with metastatic bone disease.     

Bb2Bb3 regulation of murine Lyme arthritis is distinct from Ncf1 and independent of the phagocyte nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate oxidase

Several quantitative trait loci regulating murine Lyme arthritis severity have been mapped, including a highly significant linkage found on chromosome 5, termed Bb2Bb3. Within this region, the Ncf1 gene of the phagocyte nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate (NADPH) oxidase has recently been identified as a major regulator of arthritis severity in rodent models of rheumatoid arthritis, an effect attributed to protective properties of reactive oxygen species. To assess the role of Ncf1 in Lyme arthritis, we introgressed Bb2Bb3 from severely arthritic C3H/He mice onto mildly arthritic C57BL/6 mice. This increased Lyme arthritis severity, whereas the reciprocal transfer conferred protection from disease. A single nucleotide polymorphism was identified in the Ncf1 gene that did not influence the protein sequence or expression of Ncf1. Although polymorphonuclear leukocytes from C57BL/6 mice generated a greater oxidative burst than polymorphonuclear leukocytes from C3H/He mice, studies with the Bb2Bb3 congenic mice demonstrated this difference was not linked to Ncf1 alleles. Furthermore, Lyme arthritis severity was not altered in mice lacking either the Ncf1 or Gp91phox subunits of the NADPH oxidase complex. Together, these results argue that Ncf1 is not a candidate gene for regulation of Lyme arthritis and reveal Lyme arthritis to be independent of NADPH oxidase activity, distinguishing it from other models of rheumatoid arthritis.     

IL-4-deficient mice develop less acute but more chronic relapsing collagen-induced arthritis

Rheumatoid arthritis as well as collagen-induced arthritis (CIA) is thought to involve T cell autoimmunity of the Th1 type and the Th2 cytokine IL-4 has been proposed to play a suppressive role. To exclude a possible skewing role of the mycobacteria used in the complete Freund's adjuvant (CFA) we induced CIA with type II collagen (CII) in incomplete Freund's adjuvant (IFA). Our results show that IL-4 deficiency leads to a lesser susceptibility to arthritis and lower B and T cell responses if induced with CII/IFA but not if induced with CII/CFA. In addition, IL-4-deficient mice were less susceptible to arthritis induced with monoclonal anti-CII antibodies. However, mice immunized with CII/IFA later developed a chronic relapsing disease, which was promoted by IL-4 deficiency. We conclude that IL-4 plays different roles depending on the type of adjuvant used and the phase (acute or chronic) of the clinical disease.     

Assessing the consequences of quarantines during a pandemic

The European Journal of Health Economics - This paper analyzes the epidemiological and economic effects of quarantines. We use a basic epidemiological model, a SEIR-model, that is calibrated to...     

The major T cell epitope on type II collagen is glycosylated in normal cartilage but modified by arthritis in both rats and humans

Type II collagen (CII) is a target for autoreactive T cells in both rheumatoid arthritis and the murine model collagen-induced arthritis. The determinant core of CII has been identified as CII260-270, and the alteration of this T cell epitope by posttranslational modifications is known to be critical for development of arthritis in mice. Using CII-specific T cell hybridomas we have now shown that the immunodominant T cell epitope in the normal (healthy) human and rat joint cartilage is O-glycosylated at the critical T cell receptor recognition position 264 with a mono- or di-saccharide attached to a hydroxylysine. In contrast, in the arthritic human and rat joint cartilage there are both glycosylated and non-glycosylated CII forms. Glycosylated CII from normal cartilage could not be recognized by T cells reactive to peptides having only lysine or hydroxylysine at position 264, showing that antigen-presenting cells could not degrade the O-linked carbohydrate. Thus, the variable forms of the glycosylated epitope are determined by the structures present in cartilage, and these vary during the disease course. We conclude that the chondrocyte determines the structures presented to the immune system and that these structures are different in normal versus arthritic states.     

Insight opinion to surgically treated metastatic bone disease: Scandinavian Sarcoma Group Skeletal Metastasis Registry report of 1195 operated skeletal metastasis

The number of cancer patients living with metastatic disease is growing. The increased survival has led to an increase in the number of cancer-induced complications, such as pathologic fractures due to bone metastases. Surgery is most commonly needed for mechanical complications, such as fractures and intractable pain. We determined survival, disease free interval and complications in surgically treated bone metastasis. Data were collected from the Scandinavian Skeletal Metastasis Registry for patients with extremity skeletal metastases surgically treated at eight major Scandinavian referral centres between 1999 and 2009 covering a total of 1195 skeletal metastases in 1107 patients. Primary breast, prostate, renal, lung, and myeloma tumors make up 78% of the tumors. Number of complications is tolerable and is affected by methods of surgery as well as preoperative radiation therapy. Overall 1-year patient survival was 36%; however, mean survival was influenced by the primary tumor type and the presence of additional visceral metastases. Patients with impending fracture had more systemic complications than those with complete fracture. Although surgery is usually only a palliative treatment, patients can survive for years after surgery. We developed a simple, useful and reliable scoring system to predict survival among these patients. This scoring system gives good aid in predicting the prognosis when selecting the surgical method. While it is important to avoid unnecessary operations, operating when necessary can provide benefit.     

Skeletal muscle magnesium content is correlated with plasma glucose concentration in patients with essential hypertension treated with lisinopril or bendrofluazide

The association between change in glucose metabolism and change in skeletal muscle magnesium (Mg) concentration induced by antihypertensive treatment was evaluated in 37 patients with essential hypertension randomly treated with either lisinopril or bendrofluazide. Before and after 6 months of treatment, skeletal muscle biopsies were performed, glucose tolerance was determined by oral (OGTT) and intravenous glucose tolerance tests (IVGTT), and insulin sensitivity was assessed by the hyperinsulinemic euglycemic clamp technique. An inverse relationship was found between the treatment-induced change in fasting plasma glucose concentration and change in skeletal muscle Mg concentration (r = -0.39, P < .05). However, there was no significant correlation between skeletal muscle Mg content and either insulin sensitivity measured by the hyperinsulinemic euglycemic clamp test or glucose tolerance evaluated by IVGTT and OGTT. In conclusion, an increased circulating glucose concentration was correlated with a decreased Mg concentration in skeletal muscle during antihypertensive treatment. However, the Mg concentration in skeletal muscle did not significantly predict the insulin sensitivity or glucose tolerance.     

Epitope-specific recognition of type II collagen by rheumatoid arthritis antibodies is shared with recognition by antibodies that are arthritogenic in collagen-induced arthritis in the mouse

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the fine specificity of IgG autoantibodies in sera from rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients for type II collagen (CII) epitopes that are arthritogenic in collagen-induced arthritis (CIA), a relevant murine model of RA. METHODS: For enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) analysis of conformation-dependent autoantibody binding, recombinant chimeric collagens that harbor the respective CII epitopes as an insertion within the frame of a constant type X collagen triple helix were constructed. In addition, synthetic peptides mimicking the native collagen structures were applied for the first time in the ELISA assessment of humoral CII autoimmunity. RESULTS: The pathogenicity of IgG responses to certain CII determinants in CIA was demonstrated by arthritis development in BALB/c mice upon the combined transfer of 2 mouse monoclonal antibodies specific for precisely mapped conformational CII epitopes (amino acid residues 359-369 [C1(III)] and 551-564 [J1]), whereas antibodies to another epitope (F4) were not arthritogenic. To test whether human autoimmune responses are similarly directed to these conserved CII determinants, serum IgG was analyzed. The prevalence of sera with increased IgG binding to the C1(III) epitope was significantly higher in RA compared with sera from healthy donors or from patients with other rheumatic conditions, e.g., osteoarthritis (OA), systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), or relapsing polychondritis (RP), whereas levels of antibodies specific for the nonarthritogenic F4 epitope were associated with OA rather than RA. CONCLUSION: Autoimmunity to CII, although detectable in different rheumatic conditions, differs in fine specificity between distinct disease entities. In RA, in contrast to degenerative joint disease, RP, and SLE, autoantibody responses are directed to an evolutionary conserved CII structure that is also targeted by pathogenic autoimmune responses in murine models of arthritis.