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Forensic age estimation generally involves considerable amounts of uncertainty. Forensic age indicators such as teeth or skeleton images predict age only approximately, and this is likely to remain true even for future forensic age indicators. Thus, forensic age assessment should aim to make the best possible decisions under uncertainty. In this paper, we apply mathematical theory to make statistically optimal decisions to age assessment. Such an application is fairly straightforward assuming there is a standardized procedure for obtaining age indicator information from individuals, assuming we have data from the application of this procedure to a group of persons with known ages, and assuming the starting point for each individual is a probability distribution describing prior knowledge about the persons age. The main problem is then to obtain such a prior. Our analysis indicates that individual priors rather than a common prior for all persons may be necessary. We suggest that caseworkers, based on individual case information, may select a prior from a menu of priors. We show how information may then be collected over time to gradually increase the robustness of the decision procedure. We also show how replacing individual prior distributions for age with individual prior odds for being above an age limit cannot be recommended as a general method. Our theoretical framework is applied to data where the maturity of the distal femur and the third molar is observed using MRI. As part of this analysis we observe a weak positive conditional correlation between maturity of the two body parts.

  相似文献   
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Delayed contrast enhancement after injection of a gadolinium-chelate (Gd-chelate) is a reference imaging method to detect myocardial tissue changes. Its localization within the thickness of the myocardial wall allows differentiating various pathological processes such as myocardial infarction (MI), inflammatory myocarditis, and cardiomyopathies. The aim of the study was first to characterize benign myocarditis using quantitative delayed-enhancement imaging and then to investigate whether the measure of the extracellular volume fraction (ECV) can be used to discriminate between MI and myocarditis.In 6 patients with acute benign myocarditis (32.2 ± 13.8 year-old, subepicardial late gadolinium enhancement [LGE]) and 18 patients with MI (52.3 ± 10.9 year-old, subendocardial/transmural LGE), myocardial T1 was determined using the Modified Look-Locker Imaging (MOLLI) sequence at 3 Tesla before and after Gd-chelate injection. T1 values were compared in LGE and normal regions of the myocardium. The myocardial T1 values were normalized to the T1 of blood, and the ECV was calculated from T1 values of myocardium and blood pre- and post-Gd injection.In both myocarditis and MI, the T1 was lower in LGE regions than in normal regions of the left ventricle. T1 of LGE areas was significantly higher in myocarditis than in MI (446.8 ± 45.8 vs 360.5 ± 66.9 ms, P = 0.003) and ECV was lower in myocarditis than in MI (34.5 ± 3.3 vs 53.8 ± 13.0 %, P = 0.004).Both inflammatory process and chronic fibrosis induce LGE (subepicardial in myocarditis and subendocardial in MI). The present study demonstrates that the determination of T1 and ECV is able to differentiate the 2 histological patterns.Further investigation will indicate whether the severity of ECV changes might help refine the predictive risk of LGE in myocarditis.  相似文献   
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Background

Current blunt cerebrovascular injury (BCVI) grading grossly differentiates injury characteristics such as luminal stenosis (LS) and aneurysmal disease. The effect of increasing degree of LS beyond the current BCVI grading scale on stroke formation is unknown.

Study Design

BCVI over a 3-year period were retrospectively reviewed. To investigate influence of LS beyond the BCVI grading scale within aneurysmal and non-aneurysmal BCVI, grade 2 BCVI were subdivided into BCVI with ≥ 25% and ≤ 50% LS and BCVI with > 50% and ≤ 99% LS. Grade 3 BCVI were subdivided into BCVI with pseudoaneurysm (PSA) without LS and BCVI with PSA and LS. We hypothesized increased LS beyond the current BCVI grade distinctions would be associated with higher rates of stroke formation.

Results

312 BCVI were included, of which 140 were carotid BCVI and 172 vertebral BCVI. Sixteen carotid BCVI underwent endovascular intervention (EI) and 19 suffered a stroke. In carotid BCVI stroke rates increased sequentially with BCVI grade except in grade 3. There was a stroke rate of 12% in grade 1 carotid BCVI, 18% in grade 2, 6% in grade 3, and 31% in grade 4. In subgroup analysis for grade 2 carotid BCVI, BCVI with > 50% and ≤ 99% LS had higher rates of stroke (22% vs. 15%, p?=?0.44) than BCVI with ≥ 25% and ≤ 50% LS. In subgroup analysis of grade 3 carotid BCVI, BCVI with PSA and LS had higher rates of stroke (9% vs. 4%, p?=?0.48) than BCVI with PSA without LS. Higher rates of EI in grade 2 carotid BCVI with > 50% and ≤ 99% LS (22% vs. 5%, p?=?0.14) and grade 3 carotid BCVI with PSA and LS (35% vs. 4%, p?=?0.01) were noted in subgroup analysis.

Conclusion

Higher percentage LS beyond the currently used BCVI grading scale has a non-significantly increased rate of stroke in both aneurysmal and non-aneurysmal BCVI. Grade 3 BCVI with PSA and LS seems to be a high-risk subgroup. Use of EI confounds modern measurement of stroke risk in higher LS BCVI.  相似文献   
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