ARIMA模型在医院卫生消耗材料需求量预测中的应用

目的 阐述ARIMA模型拟合时间序列的方法和步骤,并将其应用于医院卫生消耗材料需求量的预测,为医院设备管理人员提供决策依据。方法 利用SAS软件系统,求解适宜的ARIMA模型,据所得误差评价预测效果。结果 通过对3种卫生消耗材料需求量的预测,相对误差在10％左右,预测效果较为可靠。结论 医院卫生消耗材料需求量的近期预测中引入时间序列的ARIMA模型分析方法,能够对实际工作产生积极的指导意义。     

Effets de Capsicum frutescens L. (Solanaceae) et de Zingiber officinale (Zingiberaceae) sur la croissance de Phoma sabdariffae (Phomaceae) au Gabon

Phoma sabdariffae is the main roselle pathogenic fungus agent in Gabon. The present study was undertaken in order to experiment a biological strategy to eradicate this pathology. Hence, spice and ginger essential oils were extracted (rotavapor) and incorporated in PDA medium, constituting 3 concentrated (1/4, 1/2 and 3/4) samples. Fungus growth was measured after culture with a gradual ruler. The results showed all spice and ginger extracts inhibited significantly Phoma sabdariffae mycelium growth. Fungus inhibition rates were proportional to plant extracts’ concentrations. But for a same concentration the effects between the 2 plants’ essential oils weren’t different. Hence, the use of spice- and ginger-concentrated crude extracts may be envisaged against Phoma sabdariffae pathogenic agent.     

Knee septic arthritis: 100 cases report in intertropical zone

The authors report 100 cases of knee septic arthritis seen during ten years among 2298 patients admitted in the rheumatology department of Brazzaville university teaching hospital. Bone and joint infection is the first hospitalisation cause in this service. Knee is the first septic localization with 42% of cases coming before hip 25%, sacro-iliac 18% and shoulder 7%. Patients are 56 males and 44 females aged from 5 to 79 years old, average 35 years. Most frequently germs are Staphylococcus aureus in half cases, Mycobacterium tuberculosis in 30% of cases and gram-negative bacillus. Contributing factors are AIDS: 12 cases, diabetes mellitus: 7 cases, alcohol-tobacco intoxications: 4 cases, ickle-cell disease: 3 cases, gout and renal failure in 2 cases each. Late diagnosis and consultation, inadapted antibiotic drugs are responsible for important articular damages compromising further functional prognosis.     

Human immunodeficiency virus associated arthritis in Congo Brazzaville

OBJECTIVE: The authors report epidemiologic, clinical, para clinical, and evolutive aspects of arthritis related to HIV in an AIDS endemic country. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A retrospective study was made in the rheumatology department of the Brazzaville University Teaching Hospital during 15 years and 6 months, on 3.042 in-patients among whom 306 (10%) were positive for HIV, 220 (7.2%) presented with a rheumatologic manifestation, and 158 (71.8%) with HIV related arthritis. RESULTS: The 158 patients included 91 men (57.6%), 67 women (42.4%), average 34.5 years of age, ranging from 15 to 61, all heterosexual. 99 patients (62.7%) were in the B stage, 40 (25.3%) in the C stage, and 19 (12.2%) in the A stage. Arthritis was polyarthritis (83.5%) or oligoarthritis (16.5%), symmetrical (97.5%), prevailing on the lower limbs (99.3%) with involvement of the great toe in 23% of cases. There was an important inflammatory syndrome with an erythrocyte sedimentation rate exceeding 100 mm for the 1st hour in 63.3% of the cases. Rhumatoid factors were negative. Synovial fluid was sterile, without microcrystals, and inflammatory. X-rays were normal. This non-destructive arthritis, evolved by successive bouts, and resolved in 2 to 5 weeks with NSAIDs and did not meet Amor nor European spondyloarthropathy criteria. CONCLUSION: Arthritis related to HIV represents the principal expression of nonseptic rheumatologic HIV manifestations in Congo.     

Carrier state for HBs antigen and HBc antibody in Brazzaville (congo): sero-epidemiological study in the hospital and non-hospital environment

In Brazzaville (Congo), the prevalence of chronic carriage of HBs Ag (7.31%) we observed, is similar to the ones previously reported in 1981, 1982 and 1988. The sero-prevalence of anti-HBc is 67.21%. Anti-HBc are considered to be very relevant for the screening of VHB infection. Our study clearly points out that the highest prevalence of HBs Ag was observed among midwives. In all, the frequency distribution of the two serological markers we studied was similar in health workers and general population.     

含缺失值时间序列的ARMA模型拟合

目的 给出一种有效的处理含缺失值时间序列的方法，完成缺失值的内插及ＡＲＭＡ模型的参数估计。方法 用状态空间的Ｍａｒｋｏｖ表达描述时间序列，进而采用Ｋａｌｍａｎ滤波技术。结果 实例分析表明，不仅可以完成缺失值的有效内插，模型拟合效果及预测结虹也甚为柒满意。结论 用基于状态空间表达的Ｋａｌｍａｎ滤波技术，可以实现平稳可逆时间序列中缺失值的内插及ＡＲＭＡ模型拟合。     

A Citrus Fruit Extract High in Polyphenols Beneficially Modulates the Gut Microbiota of Healthy Human Volunteers in a Validated In Vitro Model of the Colon

The effect of a Citrus Fruit Extract high in the polyphenols hesperidin and naringin (CFE) on modulation of the composition and activity of the gut microbiota was tested in a validated, dynamic in vitro model of the colon (TIM-2). CFE was provided at two doses (250 and 350 mg/day) for 3 days. CFE led to a dose-dependent increase in Roseburia, Eubacterium ramulus, and Bacteroides eggerthii. There was a shift in production of short-chain fatty acids, where acetate production increased on CFE, while butyrate decreased. In overweight and obesity, acetate has been shown to increase fat oxidation when produced in the distal gut, and stimulate secretion of appetite-suppressive neuropeptides. Thus, the data in the in vitro model point towards mechanisms underlying the effects of the polyphenols in CFE with respect to modulation of the gut microbiota, both in composition and activity. These results should be confirmed in a clinical trial.