Sample size re-estimation for clinical trials with longitudinal negative binomial counts including time trends

In some diseases, such as multiple sclerosis, lesion counts obtained from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are used as markers of disease progression. This leads to longitudinal, and typically overdispersed, count data outcomes in clinical trials. Models for such data invariably include a number of nuisance parameters, which can be difficult to specify at the planning stage, leading to considerable uncertainty in sample size specification. Consequently, blinded sample size re-estimation procedures are used, allowing for an adjustment of the sample size within an ongoing trial by estimating relevant nuisance parameters at an interim point, without compromising trial integrity. To date, the methods available for re-estimation have required an assumption that the mean count is time-constant within patients. We propose a new modeling approach that maintains the advantages of established procedures but allows for general underlying and treatment-specific time trends in the mean response. A simulation study is conducted to assess the effectiveness of blinded sample size re-estimation methods over fixed designs. Sample sizes attained through blinded sample size re-estimation procedures are shown to maintain the desired study power without inflating the Type I error rate and the procedure is demonstrated on MRI data from a recent study in multiple sclerosis.     

Effects of acute liver injury on blood coagulation

Summary.  The mechanisms leading to the hemostatic changes of acute liver injury are poorly understood. To study these further we have assessed coagulation and immune changes in patients with acute paracetamol overdose and compared the results to patients with chronic cirrhosis and normal healthy controls. The results demonstrate that in paracetamol overdose coagulation factors (F)II, V, VII and X were reduced to a similar degree and were significantly lower than FIX and FXI (mean levels 0.28, 0.16, 0.13, 0.19, 0.51 and 0.72 IU mL⁻¹, respectively). In cirrhosis, by contrast, FII, FV, FVII, FIX and FX were equally reduced whilst FXI was lower than the other factors (mean levels 0.64, 0.69, 0.62, 0.60, 0.66 and 0.40 IU mL⁻¹, respectively). FVIII was raised in paracetamol overdose patients but normal in those with cirrhosis (mean levels 1.95 and 1.01 IU mL⁻¹, respectively). Interleukin-6 and tumor necrosis factor-α levels were raised in both patient groups, but higher levels were found in paracetamol overdose, compared to cirrhosis. Thrombin-antithrombin and soluble tissue factor levels were higher in those with acute liver injury but normal in cirrhosis. Antithrombin levels were reduced in both acute liver injury and cirrhosis. From these data we put forward a novel mechanism for the coagulation changes in acute paracetamol induced liver injury. We propose that immune activation leads to tissue factor-initiated consumption of FII, FV, FVII and FX, but that levels of FIX and FXI are better preserved because antithrombin inhibits the thrombin induced positive feedback loop that activates these latter factors.     

The Multimedia activity recall for children and adolescents (MARCA): development and evaluation

Background  

Self-report recall questionnaires are commonly used to measure physical activity, energy expenditure and time use in children and adolescents. However, self-report questionnaires show low to moderate validity, mainly due to inaccuracies in recalling activity in terms of duration and intensity. Aside from recall errors, inaccuracies in estimating energy expenditure from self-report questionnaires are compounded by a lack of data on the energy cost of everyday activities in children and adolescents. This article describes the development of the Multimedia Activity Recall for Children and Adolescents (MARCA), a computer-delivered use-of-time instrument designed to address both the limitations of self-report recall questionnaires in children, and the lack of energy cost data in children.