Innovative Thinking on Endpoint Selection in Clinical Trials

ABSTRACT

In clinical trials, selection of appropriate study endpoints is critical for an accurate and reliable evaluation of safety and effectiveness of a test treatment under investigation. In practice, however, there are usually multiple endpoints available for measurement of disease status and/or therapeutic effect of the test treatment under study. For example, in cancer clinical trials, overall survival, response rate, and/or time to disease progression are usually considered as primary clinical endpoints for evaluation of safety and effectiveness of the test treatment under investigation. Once the study endpoints have been selected, sample size required for achieving a desired power is then determined. It, however, should be noted that different study endpoints may result in different sample sizes. In practice, it is usually not clear which study endpoint can best inform the disease status and measure the treatment effect. Moreover, different study endpoints may not translate one another although they may be highly correlated one another. In this article, we intend to develop an innovative endpoint namely therapeutic index based on a utility function to combine and utilize information collected from all study endpoints. Statistical properties and performances of the proposed therapeutic index are evaluated theoretically. A numerical example concerning a cancer clinical trial is given to illustrate the use of the proposed therapeutic index.     

A Very Long-term Longitudinal Study on the Evolution and Clinical Outcomes of Persistent Iatrogenic Atrial Septal Defect After Cryoballoon Ablation

Background

Persistent iatrogenic atrial septal defect (iASD) is a common but poorly characterized complication after cryoballoon (CB) pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) procedures. We therefore investigate its prevalence, evolution, risk factors, and clinical outcomes in a prospective longitudinal study.

Rethinking PICO in the Machine Learning Era: ML-PICO

Background  Machine learning (ML) has captured the attention of many clinicians who may not have formal training in this area but are otherwise increasingly exposed to ML literature that may be relevant to their clinical specialties. ML papers that follow an outcomes-based research format can be assessed using clinical research appraisal frameworks such as PICO (Population, Intervention, Comparison, Outcome). However, the PICO frameworks strain when applied to ML papers that create new ML models, which are akin to diagnostic tests. There is a need for a new framework to help assess such papers. Objective  We propose a new framework to help clinicians systematically read and evaluate medical ML papers whose aim is to create a new ML model: ML-PICO (Machine Learning, Population, Identification, Crosscheck, Outcomes). We describe how the ML-PICO framework can be applied toward appraising literature describing ML models for health care. Conclusion  The relevance of ML to practitioners of clinical medicine is steadily increasing with a growing body of literature. Therefore, it is increasingly important for clinicians to be familiar with how to assess and best utilize these tools. In this paper we have described a practical framework on how to read ML papers that create a new ML model (or diagnostic test): ML-PICO. We hope that this can be used by clinicians to better evaluate the quality and utility of ML papers.     

IFN-alpha1,8 inhibits tumor-induced angiogenesis in murine angiosarcomas.

Interferon-alpha (IFN-alpha) has proved effective in the treatment of hemangiomas, hemangioblastomas, and Kaposi's sarcoma. To investigate the ability of IFNs to inhibit angiosarcoma, we used two transformed murine endothelial cell lines that form angiosarcomas in vivo. SVR and MS1-VEGF cell lines express oncogenic H-ras or vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), respectively. IFN-alpha1,8, which is active against murine and human cells, inhibited SVR and MS1-VEGF proliferation in vitro by 40% at 10(3) U/mL (p = 0.028). In vivo, IFN-alpha1,8 inhibited SVR tumor volume by 71% (p = 0.047) and MS1-VEGF volume by 79% (p = 0.003). Tumor-induced angiogenesis was decreased in SVR tumors by 52% (p = 0.005) and in MS1-VEGF tumors by 58% (p = 0.001). Sera from IFN-alpha1,8-treated mice bearing either SVR or MS1-VEGF tumors demonstrated a 5-fold increase in IP-10/CXCL10 (p = 0.001), an IFN-induced antiangiogenic protein. Both recombinant IP-10 and IFN-alpha1,8 inhibited human umbilical vein endothelial cell (HUVEC) vessel formation in the fibrin gel assay, a three-dimensional culture model of angiogenesis, by 56% at 25 ng/mL and 50% at 1.2 ng/mL, respectively (p < 0.001). An IP-10 blocking antibody restored vessel formation to 80% of untreated controls (p = 0.001). Given the magnitude of the in vivo response, these data suggested that the antitumor effects of IFN-alpha1,8 were likely mediated through angiogenesis inhibition rather than solely by direct inhibition of tumor cell proliferation.     

Probable gas embolism during operative hysteroscopy caused by products of combustion

PURPOSE: Gas embolism is a rare but well documented entity during operative hysteroscopy, with an incidence of 10-50%. Catastrophic outcomes occur at a rate of three in 17,000 procedures. The purpose of this report is to present a non-fatal case of gas embolism probably caused by the gaseous products of combustion. CLINICAL FEATURES: A 50-yr-old woman with a history of menorrhagia was scheduled for hysteroscopy and endometrial ablation and polypectomy. Fifteen minutes into the procedure, with the patient in lithotomy position, 20 degree head down tilt, and breathing spontaneously, a sudden oxygen desaturation occurred from 97% to 87%. The patient's end-tidal carbon dioxide dropped from 46 mmHg to 27 mmHg. The patient's breathing pattern remained normal, respiratory rate remained 11-12 breaths x min(-1) but amplitude of the reservoir bag movement was increased. Cardiovascular variables remained stable. She responded rapidly to 100% oxygen and made an uneventful recovery. Having ruled out other possible causes, we concluded gas embolism was responsible for the fall in oxygen saturation and end-tidal CO(2). CONCLUSION: With all the precautions in place to minimize the likelihood of fluid overload and ambient air embolism occurring, we surmised that products of combustion were the cause of the gas embolism. During endometrial ablation, gaseous products of combustion, mainly carbon dioxide, accumulate. The gases may then contribute to the rise in uterine pressure that occurs as irrigation fluid enters the uterus and this rise in pressure in turn encourages passage of gas into the open venous sinuses.