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Background

Payers frequently rely on budget impact model (BIM) results to help determine drug coverage policy and its effect on their bottom line. It is unclear whether BIMs typically overestimate or underestimate real-world budget impact.

Objective

We examined how different modeling assumptions influenced the results of 6 BIMs from the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER).

Study Design

Retrospective analysis of pharmaceutical sales data.

Methods

From ICER reports issued before 2016, we collected estimates of 3 BIM outputs: aggregate therapy cost (ie, cost to treat the patient population with a particular therapy), therapy uptake, and price. We compared these against real-world estimates that we generated using drug sales data. We considered 2 classes of BIM estimates: those forecasting future uptake of new agents, which assumed “unmanaged uptake,” and those describing the contemporaneous market state (ie, estimates of current, managed uptake and budget impact for compounds already on the market).

Results

Differences between ICER's estimates and our own were largest for forecasted studies. Here, ICER's uptake estimates exceeded real-world estimates by factors ranging from 7.4 (sacubitril/valsartan) to 54 (hepatitis C treatments). The “unmanaged uptake” assumption (removed from ICER's approach in 2017) yields large deviations between BIM estimates and real-world consumption. Nevertheless, in some cases, ICER's BIMs that relied on current market estimates also deviated substantially from real-world sales data.

Conclusions

This study highlights challenges with forecasting budget impact. In particular, assumptions about uptake and data source selection can greatly influence the accuracy of results.  相似文献   
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Hypoxia is related to poor prognosis because it is associated to chemo-and radioresistance. During recent years the evolution of imaging methods like PET/CT and MRI has meant the appearance of new perspectives with direct implications in radiation therapy. We discuss previous experiences in staging, planning and in the follow-up process with these techniques for measuring tumour hypoxia.  相似文献   
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Toxicity testing of sediment samples from the Rio Santiago and its main tributaries was performed using a battery of tests that included the ECHA dipstick biocide monitor, the MetPad test, the lettuce seed germination and the root elongation test, the nematode test, spot plate test, and the SOS Chromotest. Assessment was carried out on organic extracts, pore water, and direct sediment. Results of bioassays showed toxicity sources from tributaries and canals flowing into the river and areas being degraded by insults from industrial spills. © by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.  相似文献   
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Abstract Pericardial tamponade remains a diagnostic challenge to the clinician especially when the patient is well compensated hemodynamically. We report an unusual case who sought medical help 1 month after having been stabbed in his chest. An investigation revealed a perforation of the myocardium and a pericardial tamponade. The patient survived thanks to a large organized clot that plugged the perforation. The patient was exposed to increased risk due to delayed onset, recognition, and therapy of the tamponade. Most reports on this subject deal with acute pericardial tamponade. Only few cases of delayed pericardial tamponade have been reported. A review of the relevant literature and the therapeutic approaches are discussed.  相似文献   
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A study of some antiparasitic properties of several homoallylamines and related tetrahydroquinolines and quinolines, previously described, was carried out using in vitro activity assays against the epimastigote form of Trypanosoma cruzi and against Trichomonas vaginalis. Unspecific cytotoxicity against murine macrophages was also studied. Although the antichagasic and trichomonacidal activities are not comparable to those of the standard drugs, nifurtimox and metronidazole, some of the compounds exhibit an interesting specific antiparasitic activity.  相似文献   
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The reliability of antigliadin antibodies of IgA and IgG classes for the diagnosis and follow-up of coeliac disease was evaluated by ELISA tests. Forty coeliac patients, 41 patients with other gastrointestinal diseases and 50 healthy subjects were studied. IgA antigliadin antibodies were detected in all patients on unrestricted diet and in those on a challenge with a gluten-containing diet. A low incidence of positivities was found in patients on a gluten free-diet, while no positivity was found in controls or gastrointestinal patients. IgG determination, in contrast, showed poor specificity. Our data suggest that a positive IgA antigliadin test may be a reliable marker for the presence of active coeliac disease, which should be confirmed by intestinal biopsy; it is, moreover, a good marker for monitoring patients, since elevated values might suggest non-compliance with the diet.  相似文献   
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