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Background

Payers frequently rely on budget impact model (BIM) results to help determine drug coverage policy and its effect on their bottom line. It is unclear whether BIMs typically overestimate or underestimate real-world budget impact.

Objective

We examined how different modeling assumptions influenced the results of 6 BIMs from the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER).

Study Design

Retrospective analysis of pharmaceutical sales data.

Methods

From ICER reports issued before 2016, we collected estimates of 3 BIM outputs: aggregate therapy cost (ie, cost to treat the patient population with a particular therapy), therapy uptake, and price. We compared these against real-world estimates that we generated using drug sales data. We considered 2 classes of BIM estimates: those forecasting future uptake of new agents, which assumed “unmanaged uptake,” and those describing the contemporaneous market state (ie, estimates of current, managed uptake and budget impact for compounds already on the market).

Results

Differences between ICER's estimates and our own were largest for forecasted studies. Here, ICER's uptake estimates exceeded real-world estimates by factors ranging from 7.4 (sacubitril/valsartan) to 54 (hepatitis C treatments). The “unmanaged uptake” assumption (removed from ICER's approach in 2017) yields large deviations between BIM estimates and real-world consumption. Nevertheless, in some cases, ICER's BIMs that relied on current market estimates also deviated substantially from real-world sales data.

Conclusions

This study highlights challenges with forecasting budget impact. In particular, assumptions about uptake and data source selection can greatly influence the accuracy of results.  相似文献   
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Hypoxia is related to poor prognosis because it is associated to chemo-and radioresistance. During recent years the evolution of imaging methods like PET/CT and MRI has meant the appearance of new perspectives with direct implications in radiation therapy. We discuss previous experiences in staging, planning and in the follow-up process with these techniques for measuring tumour hypoxia.  相似文献   
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Purpose To perform an audit of paediatric surgical patients in a provincial general surgical unit. Methodology Data was prospectively recorded using a standardized proforma on all children aged up to 15 yrs, seen between 11th December 2005 and 11th December 2006. Results There were 209 admissions (194 children), median age 8 yrs (6 wks–15 yrs) with 153 (73%) acutes. 37 children (18%) were under 2 yrs. Male : female ratio was 3 : 2. Procedures (n = 119) were appendicectomy (35), inguinal herniotomy (30), skin procedures (29), endoscopy (10), testicular (10) and others (5). The commonest acute and elective operations were appendicectomy and inguinal herniotomy respectively. 51% of operations were acute. There were 10 tertiary hospital transfers (5%) for burns (4), pyloric stenosis (3), intussusseption (1), neonatal inguinal hernia (1) and pyoderma gangrenosum (1). Median age of transfers was 11 months (6 wks–14 yrs). Complications were wound infection (1), post‐operative ileus (2) and infarcted ovary (1). Conclusion There are increasing moves towards centralization in paediatric surgery. 1 With only 4 paediatric tertiary centres in NZ, many general surgeons routinely perform paediatric surgery. A large number of children presented to our surgical department. Around half of these children required surgery and half of operations were acute. There is still a significant need for general paediatric surgery in the provinces and hence close collaboration with specialist paediatric surgeons.  相似文献   
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Measurement of ultrasonographic parameters provides information concerning not only bone density but also bone architecture. We investigated the usefulness of ultrasonographic parameters and bone mineral density (BMD) to evaluate the probability of Colles' fracture. Two-hundred eighty-nine postmenopausal women (62.3 +/- 8.7 yr) with (n = 76) and without (n = 213) Colles' fracture were studied. BMD of lumbar spine and proximal femur was evaluated in all women by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and speed of sound (SOS), broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA), and stiffness in the calcaneus were measured by a Sahara ultrasonometer (Hologic). Patients suffering from Colles' fracture had lower values of BMD adjusted by height at the lumbar spine, L2-L4 (0.797 g/cm2 vs 0.860 g/cm2), femoral neck (0.685 g/cm2 vs 0.712 g/cm2 ), SOS (1518 m/sg vs 1525 m/sg), and stiffness (74.6 vs 77.7) (p < 0.05). Nevertheless, BUA values were similar in both groups. After stepwise logistic regression analysis, the area found under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves was 0.60 for L2L4 and 0.63 for a formula combining L2L4 and height. Our data suggest that patients suffering from Colles' fracture have lower values of BMD by DXA, SOS, and stiffness. However, the ability of these techniques to discriminate is low because the values for the area under ROC curve are 0.60 for L2-L4 and 0.63 for a formula derived of the combination of L2-L4 and height.  相似文献   
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Toxicity testing of sediment samples from the Rio Santiago and its main tributaries was performed using a battery of tests that included the ECHA dipstick biocide monitor, the MetPad test, the lettuce seed germination and the root elongation test, the nematode test, spot plate test, and the SOS Chromotest. Assessment was carried out on organic extracts, pore water, and direct sediment. Results of bioassays showed toxicity sources from tributaries and canals flowing into the river and areas being degraded by insults from industrial spills. © by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.  相似文献   
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Abstract Pericardial tamponade remains a diagnostic challenge to the clinician especially when the patient is well compensated hemodynamically. We report an unusual case who sought medical help 1 month after having been stabbed in his chest. An investigation revealed a perforation of the myocardium and a pericardial tamponade. The patient survived thanks to a large organized clot that plugged the perforation. The patient was exposed to increased risk due to delayed onset, recognition, and therapy of the tamponade. Most reports on this subject deal with acute pericardial tamponade. Only few cases of delayed pericardial tamponade have been reported. A review of the relevant literature and the therapeutic approaches are discussed.  相似文献   
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A study of some antiparasitic properties of several homoallylamines and related tetrahydroquinolines and quinolines, previously described, was carried out using in vitro activity assays against the epimastigote form of Trypanosoma cruzi and against Trichomonas vaginalis. Unspecific cytotoxicity against murine macrophages was also studied. Although the antichagasic and trichomonacidal activities are not comparable to those of the standard drugs, nifurtimox and metronidazole, some of the compounds exhibit an interesting specific antiparasitic activity.  相似文献   
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