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Background

Payers frequently rely on budget impact model (BIM) results to help determine drug coverage policy and its effect on their bottom line. It is unclear whether BIMs typically overestimate or underestimate real-world budget impact.

Objective

We examined how different modeling assumptions influenced the results of 6 BIMs from the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER).

Study Design

Retrospective analysis of pharmaceutical sales data.

Methods

From ICER reports issued before 2016, we collected estimates of 3 BIM outputs: aggregate therapy cost (ie, cost to treat the patient population with a particular therapy), therapy uptake, and price. We compared these against real-world estimates that we generated using drug sales data. We considered 2 classes of BIM estimates: those forecasting future uptake of new agents, which assumed “unmanaged uptake,” and those describing the contemporaneous market state (ie, estimates of current, managed uptake and budget impact for compounds already on the market).

Results

Differences between ICER's estimates and our own were largest for forecasted studies. Here, ICER's uptake estimates exceeded real-world estimates by factors ranging from 7.4 (sacubitril/valsartan) to 54 (hepatitis C treatments). The “unmanaged uptake” assumption (removed from ICER's approach in 2017) yields large deviations between BIM estimates and real-world consumption. Nevertheless, in some cases, ICER's BIMs that relied on current market estimates also deviated substantially from real-world sales data.

Conclusions

This study highlights challenges with forecasting budget impact. In particular, assumptions about uptake and data source selection can greatly influence the accuracy of results.  相似文献   
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Introduction

Physician communication impacts patient outcomes. However, communication skills, especially around difficult conversations, remain suboptimal, and there is no clear way to determine the validity of entrustment decisions. The aims of this study were to 1) describe the development of a simulation-based mastery learning (SBML) curriculum for breaking bad news (BBN) conversation skills and 2) set a defensible minimum passing standard (MPS) to ensure uniform skill acquisition among learners.

Innovation

An SBML BBN curriculum was developed for fourth-year medical students. An assessment tool was created to evaluate the acquisition of skills involved in a BBN conversation. Pilot testing was completed to confirm improvement in skill acquisition and set the MPS.

Outcomes

A BBN assessment tool containing a 15-item checklist and six scaled items was developed. Students' checklist performance improved significantly at post-test compared to baseline (mean 65.33%, SD = 12.09% vs mean 88.67%, SD = 9.45%, P < 0.001). Students were also significantly more likely to have at least a score of 4 (on a five-point scale) for the six scaled questions at post-test. The MPS was set at 80%, requiring a score of 12 items on the checklist and at least 4 of 5 for each scaled item. Using the MPS, 30% of students would require additional training after post-testing.

Comments

We developed a SBML curriculum with a comprehensive assessment of BBN skills and a defensible competency standard. Future efforts will expand the mastery model to larger cohorts and assess the impact of rigorous education on patient care outcomes.  相似文献   
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Capillary malformation–arteriovenous malformation syndrome (CM‐AVM) is an autosomal dominant disorder caused by RASA1 mutations. The prevalence and phenotypic spectrum are unknown. Evaluation of patients with multiple CMs is challenging because associated AVMs can be life threatening. The objective of this study was to describe the clinical characteristics of children presenting with features of CM‐AVM to an academic pediatric dermatology practice. After institutional review board approval was received, a retrospective chart review was performed of patients presenting between 2009 and 2012 with features of CM‐AVM. We report nine cases. Presenting symptoms ranged from extensive vascular stains and cardiac failure to CMs noted incidentally during routine skin examination. All demonstrated multiple CMs, two had Parkes Weber syndrome, and two had multiple infantile hemangiomas. Seven patients had family histories of multiple CMs; three had family histories of large, atypical CMs. Six had personal or family histories of AVMs. Genetic evaluation was recommended for all and was pursued by six families; four RASA1 mutations were identified, including one de novo. Consultations with neurology, cardiology, and orthopedics were recommended. Most patients (89%) have not required treatment to date. CM‐AVM is an underrecognized condition with a wide clinical spectrum that often presents in childhood. Further evaluation may be indicated in patients with multiple CMs. This study is limited by its small and retrospective nature.  相似文献   
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We present the case of 7‐year‐old African American girl with loose anagen syndrome. Although this is a common cause of hair loss in Caucasian children, and there have been reports of cases occurring in dark‐skinned children of North African and Middle Eastern descent, to our knowledge there have been no cases reported in black children of sub‐Saharan African ancestry. We present this case to broaden the differential diagnosis of hair loss in African Americans.  相似文献   
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Infantile hemangiomas (IHs) are the most common benign tumor of infancy, characterized by a natural history of early proliferation in the first months of life to eventual involution during childhood, often with residual fibrofatty tissue. Once involution has been achieved, IHs do not typically recur. We present two cases of exogenous growth hormone therapy resulting in the recurrence of IHs in late childhood, supported by radiological, immunohistochemical, in vitro, and in vivo evidence.  相似文献   
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