PREDICT-GTN 1: Can we improve the FIGO scoring system in gestational trophoblastic neoplasia?

Gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN) patients are treated according to the eight-variable International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) scoring system, that aims to predict first-line single-agent chemotherapy resistance. FIGO is imperfect with one-third of low-risk patients developing disease resistance to first-line single-agent chemotherapy. We aimed to generate simplified models that improve upon FIGO. Logistic regression (LR) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) modelling (n = 4191) generated six models (M1-6). M1, all eight FIGO variables (scored data); M2, all eight FIGO variables (scored and raw data); M3, nonimaging variables (scored data); M4, nonimaging variables (scored and raw data); M5, imaging variables (scored data); and M6, pretreatment hCG (raw data) + imaging variables (scored data). Performance was compared to FIGO using true and false positive rates, positive and negative predictive values, diagnostic odds ratio, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, Bland-Altman calibration plots, decision curve analysis and contingency tables. M1-6 were calibrated and outperformed FIGO on true positive rate and positive predictive value. Using LR and MLP, M1, M2 and M4 generated small improvements to the ROC curve and decision curve analysis. M3, M5 and M6 matched FIGO or performed less well. Compared to FIGO, most (excluding LR M4 and MLP M5) had significant discordance in patient classification (McNemar's test P < .05); 55-112 undertreated, 46-206 overtreated. Statistical modelling yielded only small gains over FIGO performance, arising through recategorisation of treatment-resistant patients, with a significant proportion of under/overtreatment as the available data have been used a priori to allocate primary chemotherapy. Streamlining FIGO should now be the focus.     

Polyvictimization and Psychiatric Sequelae Associated with Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting (FGM/C)

Female Genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) is associated with enduring psychiatric complications. In this study, we investigate the rates of co-morbid abuses and polyvictimization experienced by survivors of FGM/C. This is a sub-analysis of a cohort study examining the patient population at the EMPOWER Center for Survivors of Sex Trafficking and Sexual Violence in New York City. A retrospective chart-review of electronic medical records was conducted for all consenting adult patients who had FGM/C and had an intake visit between January 16, 2014 and March 6, 2020. Of the 80 participants, ages ranged from 20 to 62 years with a mean of 37.4 (SD?=?9.1) years. In addition to FGM/C, participants were victims of physical abuse (43; 53.8%), emotional abuse (35; 43.8%), sexual abuse (35; 43.8%), forced marriage (20; 25%), child marriage (13; 16.3%), and sex trafficking (1; 1.4%). There was a high degree of polyvictimization, with 41 (51.2%) experiencing 3 or more of the aforementioned abuses. Having FGM/C on or after age 13 or having a higher total abuse score was also found to be strong predictors of depression and PTSD. The high rates of polyvictimization among survivors of FGM/C are associated with development of depression and PTSD. Despite co-morbid abuses, patients still attribute substantial psychiatric symptoms to their FGM/C. Health care providers should understand the high risk of polyvictimization when caring for this patient population.

     

Intervention for arch obstruction after the Norwood procedure: Prevalence,associated factors,and practice variability

Objective

Arch obstruction after the Norwood procedure is common and contributes to mortality. We determined the prevalence, associated factors, and practice variability of arch reintervention and assessed whether arch reintervention is associated with mortality.

Factors influencing choice of medical vs. surgical treatment of pediatric appendicitis

PurposeTo examine what proportion of caregivers, if given a choice, would choose medical versus surgical treatment of appendicitis and what factors would be important in their decision.MethodsA survey was devised and given to the caregivers of children presenting to the pediatrician for a routine visit in community and academic pediatric clinics. The survey presented a summary of outcomes after medical (non-operative) and surgical treatment of uncomplicated appendicitis. Participants were then asked to choose medical versus surgical treatment if their child were to develop appendicitis. They were also asked to rate the importance of certain factors in their decision ? 1 being “not important” and 5 being “very important”.ResultsFour hundred surveys were distributed with an 86.2% (345/400) response rate. Six percent (21/342) of respondents reported a history of appendicitis and 49.4% (168/340) reported having known someone who had appendicitis. The majority of respondents, 85.3% (284/333), were mothers. A minority of respondents, 41.7% (95% CI: 36.7, 47.0), chose medical treatment over surgery for appendicitis. There was no statistical difference in the proportion of mothers (41.6%) versus fathers who chose medical treatment (41.3%). Caregivers who chose medical treatment were more likely to rate time in hospital (p = .008) and time out of school (p = 05) as important in decision making when compared with those who chose surgery. Those who chose surgical treatment were more likely to rate risk of recurrent appendicitis (p < .001) as important to decision making. In the multivariate analysis, those who rated time in hospital as very important had more than twice the odds of choosing medical therapy (OR 2.20, p = 0.02) when compared with those who rated it as less important. Not knowing someone who has had appendicitis was significantly associated with choosing medical therapy when compared with those who do know someone who has had appendicitis, OR 2.3, p = .002. Rating pain as very important was also significantly associated with choosing medical therapy, when compared to those rating pain 1–3, OR 3.38, p = .03.ConclusionsIn this survey of caregivers of children presenting for routine care, 41.7% would choose medical, or non-operative, therapy for their children with acute appendicitis. The risk of recurrence, time in hospital, and time out of school, pain, and knowing someone who has had appendicitis were all important factors that families may consider when making a decision. These data may be useful for surgeons counseling patients on which treatment to pursue.     

Treatment sequence network meta-analysis in Crohn’s disease: a methodological case study

Objective: Several biologic therapies are available for the treatment of mild-to-moderate Crohn’s disease (CD). This network meta-analysis (NMA) aimed to assess the comparative efficacy of ustekinumab, adalimumab, vedolizumab and infliximab in the maintenance of clinical response and remission after 1?year of treatment.

Methods: A systematic literature search was performed to identify relevant randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Key outcomes of interest were clinical response (CD activity index [CDAI] reduction of 100 points; CDAI-100) and remission (CDAI score under 150 points; CDAI < 150). A treatment sequence Bayesian NMA was conducted to account for the re-randomization of patients based on different clinical definitions, the lack of similarity of the common comparator for each trial and the full treatment pathway from the induction phase onwards.

Results: Thirteen RCTs were identified. Ustekinumab 90?mg q8w was associated with statistically significant improvement in clinical response relative to placebo and vedolizumab 300?mg. For clinical remission, ustekinumab 90?mg q8w was associated with statistically significant improvement relative to placebo and vedolizumab 300?mg q8w. Findings from sub-population analyses had similar results but were not statistically significant.

Conclusions: The NMA suggest that ustekinumab is associated with the highest likelihood of reaching response or remission at 1?year compared with placebo, adalimumab and vedolizumab. Results should be interpreted with caution because this is a novel methodology; however, the treatment sequence analysis may be the most methodologically sound analysis to derive estimates of comparative efficacy in CD in the absence of head-to-head evidence.