Plasmacytic cutaneous pathology: A review

We review the spectrum of cutaneous disorders associated with inflammatory and neoplastic plasmacytic pathology. Because plasma cells are derived from B‐lymphocytes our overview includes discussion of certain lymphoplasmacytic proliferations. It is structured along histopathological lines, addressing conditions characterized by (a) cutaneous plasma cell infiltrates, (b) deposits of plasma cell products or their derivatives in the skin and (c) miscellaneous, poorly understood cutaneous complications of plasmacytic disorders. Lesions arising primarily in the skin and those due to cutaneous involvement by multisystem disorders are addressed. The range includes a spectrum of tumefactive and circulatory manifestations. We highlight key clinical and pathological features of the different conditions and outline recent advances in our understanding of these entities. By emphasizing the dermatopathological characteristics of this spectrum of disorders we hope to hone the diagnostic accuracy of practitioners in the field.     

Sample size re-estimation for clinical trials with longitudinal negative binomial counts including time trends

In some diseases, such as multiple sclerosis, lesion counts obtained from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are used as markers of disease progression. This leads to longitudinal, and typically overdispersed, count data outcomes in clinical trials. Models for such data invariably include a number of nuisance parameters, which can be difficult to specify at the planning stage, leading to considerable uncertainty in sample size specification. Consequently, blinded sample size re-estimation procedures are used, allowing for an adjustment of the sample size within an ongoing trial by estimating relevant nuisance parameters at an interim point, without compromising trial integrity. To date, the methods available for re-estimation have required an assumption that the mean count is time-constant within patients. We propose a new modeling approach that maintains the advantages of established procedures but allows for general underlying and treatment-specific time trends in the mean response. A simulation study is conducted to assess the effectiveness of blinded sample size re-estimation methods over fixed designs. Sample sizes attained through blinded sample size re-estimation procedures are shown to maintain the desired study power without inflating the Type I error rate and the procedure is demonstrated on MRI data from a recent study in multiple sclerosis.     

Predicting the initial spread of novel Asian origin influenza A viruses in the continental USA by wild waterfowl

Using data on waterfowl band recoveries, we identified spatially explicit hotspots of concentrated waterfowl movement to predict occurrence and spatial spread of a novel influenza A virus (clade 2.3.4.4) introduced from Asia by waterfowl from an initial outbreak in North America in November 2014. In response to the outbreak, the hotspots of waterfowl movement were used to help guide sampling for clade 2.3.4.4 viruses in waterfowl as an early warning for the US poultry industry during the outbreak . After surveillance sampling of waterfowl, we tested whether there was greater detection of clade 2.3.4.4 viruses inside hotspots. We found that hotspots defined using kernel density estimates of waterfowl band recoveries worked well in predicting areas with higher prevalence of the viruses in waterfowl. This approach exemplifies the value of ecological knowledge in predicting risk to agricultural security.     

Crowdsourced and crowdfunded: the future of forensic DNA?

ABSTRACT

Forensic DNA analysis is dependent on comparing the known and the unknown. Expand the number of known profiles, and the likelihood of a successful match increases. Forensic use of DNA is moving towards comparing samples of unknown origin with publicly available genetic data, such as the records held by genetic genealogy providers. Use of forensic genetic genealogy has yielded a number of recent high-profile successes but has raised ethical and privacy concerns. Navigating family trees is complex, even more so when combined with a comparison of genetic relationships. This intelligence-gathering process has led to occasional false leads, and its use also risks a public backlash, similar to concerns over Cambridge Analytica. A cautious approach to use of this technique is therefore warranted.