Sample size re-estimation for clinical trials with longitudinal negative binomial counts including time trends

In some diseases, such as multiple sclerosis, lesion counts obtained from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are used as markers of disease progression. This leads to longitudinal, and typically overdispersed, count data outcomes in clinical trials. Models for such data invariably include a number of nuisance parameters, which can be difficult to specify at the planning stage, leading to considerable uncertainty in sample size specification. Consequently, blinded sample size re-estimation procedures are used, allowing for an adjustment of the sample size within an ongoing trial by estimating relevant nuisance parameters at an interim point, without compromising trial integrity. To date, the methods available for re-estimation have required an assumption that the mean count is time-constant within patients. We propose a new modeling approach that maintains the advantages of established procedures but allows for general underlying and treatment-specific time trends in the mean response. A simulation study is conducted to assess the effectiveness of blinded sample size re-estimation methods over fixed designs. Sample sizes attained through blinded sample size re-estimation procedures are shown to maintain the desired study power without inflating the Type I error rate and the procedure is demonstrated on MRI data from a recent study in multiple sclerosis.     

Transplanting the Highly Sensitized Patient: The Emory Algorithm

Renal transplant patients sensitized to HLA antigens comprise nearly one-third of the UNOS wait-list and receive 14% of deceased donor (DD) transplants, a rate half that of unsensitized patients. Between 1999 and 2003, we performed 492 adult renal transplants from DD; 120 patients (approximately 25%) had a panel reactive antibody (PRA) of >30%, with nearly half (n = 58) having a PRA of >80%. Our approach is based upon high-resolution solid-phase HLA antibody analysis to identify class I/II antibodies and a 'virtual crossmatch' to predict compatible donor/recipient combinations. Recipients are excluded from the United Network for Organ Sharing match run if donors possess unacceptable antigens. Thus, when sensitized patients appear on the match run, they have a high probability of a negative final crossmatch. Here, we describe our 5-year experience with this approach. Five-year graft survival ranged from 66% to 70% among unsensitized (n = 272), moderately sensitized (PRA < 30%, n = 100) and highly sensitized (>30% PRA; n = 120) patients, equal to the average national graft survival (65.7%). The application of this approach (the Emory Algorithm) provides a logical and systematic approach to improve the access of sensitized patients to DD organs and promote more equitable allocation to a highly disadvantaged group of patients awaiting renal transplantation.     

The Multimedia activity recall for children and adolescents (MARCA): development and evaluation

Background  

Self-report recall questionnaires are commonly used to measure physical activity, energy expenditure and time use in children and adolescents. However, self-report questionnaires show low to moderate validity, mainly due to inaccuracies in recalling activity in terms of duration and intensity. Aside from recall errors, inaccuracies in estimating energy expenditure from self-report questionnaires are compounded by a lack of data on the energy cost of everyday activities in children and adolescents. This article describes the development of the Multimedia Activity Recall for Children and Adolescents (MARCA), a computer-delivered use-of-time instrument designed to address both the limitations of self-report recall questionnaires in children, and the lack of energy cost data in children.     

Spleen sizing by ultrasound in polycythaemia and thrombocythaemia: comparison with SPECT

Detection of non-palpable early splenic enlargement may aid diagnosis of primary polycythaemia (PP) and primary thrombocythaemia (PT). In this study linear spleen sizing by ultrasound has been compared with spleen volume estimation by single photon emission computerized tomography (SPECT) in 26 patients. Spleen length by ultrasound correlated well with SPECT volume estimation.
Ultrasound spleen length was also measured in 60 normal control subjects where the upper limit of the 95% reference range was 11.6 cm. Changes in spleen length with both age and body weight were substantial and overshadowed the imperfect reproducibility of this method. Therefore, interpretation of an individual's measured spleen length should be in relation to that predicted for adults of the same age and weight, particularly at the extremes of the younger, heavier patients and also the older, lighter patients.
Ultrasound spleen lengths of different patient groups (21 PP, 26 PT, 17 idiopathic erythrocytosis, 12 secondary polycythaemia, nine apparent polycythaemia) were compared both using the measured overall reference range and the differences from the values predicted for their age and weight. The comparison showed that almost all patients with PP whose spleens were not palpable had spleen lengths greater than the upper limit for the normal control group, but separation from the other patient groups was incomplete.
Detection of non-palpable splenomegaly by ultrasound length should remain a 'minor' criterion amongst the 'proposed modified diagnostic criteria' of PP.     

Lithium inhibits human sperm motility in vitro.

Lithium is a widely prescribed drug used for the treatment of bipolar affective illness. Previous reports on its effects on sperm motility and male fertility are conflicting. The effect of lithium on human sperm motility was examined in vitro using the modified transmembrane migration method. This technique takes account of the dilution of lithium that occurs during the incubation. Lithium inhibits human sperm motility in vitro in concentrations comparable with those reported to be achieved in semen after oral administration.