Sample size re-estimation for clinical trials with longitudinal negative binomial counts including time trends

In some diseases, such as multiple sclerosis, lesion counts obtained from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are used as markers of disease progression. This leads to longitudinal, and typically overdispersed, count data outcomes in clinical trials. Models for such data invariably include a number of nuisance parameters, which can be difficult to specify at the planning stage, leading to considerable uncertainty in sample size specification. Consequently, blinded sample size re-estimation procedures are used, allowing for an adjustment of the sample size within an ongoing trial by estimating relevant nuisance parameters at an interim point, without compromising trial integrity. To date, the methods available for re-estimation have required an assumption that the mean count is time-constant within patients. We propose a new modeling approach that maintains the advantages of established procedures but allows for general underlying and treatment-specific time trends in the mean response. A simulation study is conducted to assess the effectiveness of blinded sample size re-estimation methods over fixed designs. Sample sizes attained through blinded sample size re-estimation procedures are shown to maintain the desired study power without inflating the Type I error rate and the procedure is demonstrated on MRI data from a recent study in multiple sclerosis.     

IgE-mediated regulation of IL-10 and type I IFN enhances rhinovirus-induced Th2 differentiation by primary human monocytes

Rhinovirus (RV) infections are linked to the development and exacerbation of allergic diseases including allergic asthma. IgE, another contributor to atopic disease pathogenesis, has been shown to regulate DC antiviral functions and influence T cell priming by monocytes. We previously demonstrated that IgE-mediated stimulation of monocytes alters multiple cellular functions including cytokine secretion, phagocytosis, and influenza-induced Th1 development. In this study, we investigate the effects of IgE-mediated stimulation on monocyte-driven, RV-induced T cell development utilizing primary human monocyte-T cell co-cultures. We demonstrate that IgE crosslinking of RV-exposed monocytes enhances monocyte-driven Th2 differentiation. This increase in RV-induced Th2 development was regulated by IgE-mediated inhibition of virus-induced type I IFN and induction of IL-10. These findings suggest an additional mechanism by which two clinically significant risk factors for allergic disease exacerbations—IgE-mediated stimulation and rhinovirus infection—may synergistically promote Th2 differentiation and allergic inflammation.