Temporal neural networks for downscaling climate variability and extremes.

This paper presents an application of temporal neural networks for downscaling global climate models (GCMs) output. Because of computational constraints, GCMs are usually run at coarse grid resolution (in the order of 100s of kilometres) and as a result they are inherently unable to present local sub-grid scale features and dynamics. Consequently, outputs from these models cannot be used directly in many climate change impact studies. This research explored the issues of 'downscaling' the outputs of GCMs using a temporal neural network (TNN) approach. The method is proposed for downscaling daily precipitation and temperature series for a region in northern Quebec, Canada. The downscaling models are developed and validated using large-scale predictor variables derived from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data set. The performance of the temporal neural network downscaling model is also compared to a regression-based statistical downscaling model with emphasis on their ability in reproducing the observed climate variability and extremes. The downscaling results for the base period (1961-2000) suggest that the TNN is an efficient method for downscaling both daily precipitation as well as daily maximum and minimum temperature series. Furthermore, the different model test results indicate that the TNN model mostly outperforms the statistical models for the downscaling of daily precipitation extremes and variability.     

Affinity of Macrocyclic Pyridinophanes and Their Acyclic Analogs to Peripheral Benzodiazepine CNS Receptors

Pharmaceutical Chemistry Journal -     

Clinical and biological evolution of HIV-1 seroconverters in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire, 1997-2000

OBJECTIVE: To describe the clinical and biologic evolution of HIV-1 infection in Africa. METHODS: One hundred four HIV-1-infected individuals were identified prospectively from regular blood donors in Abidjan, C?te d'Ivoire. The date of seroconversion was estimated from results of sequential serologic tests. Biologic and clinical follow-up was performed every 6 months, starting as early as possible after seroconversion. Case management followed national guidelines. RESULTS: The median interval between estimated seroconversion and study inclusion was 9.7 months, and the median window of seroconversion was 2.8 months. At baseline, all but two patients were asymptomatic; the median CD4 + cell count was 527/mm 3 (interquartile range [IR], 395-684), and the median plasma HIV RNA level was 4.6 log 10 copies/ml (IR, 3.8-4.9). The median follow-up was 23.9 months, and 95% of the patients received primary prophylaxis with co-trimoxazole for opportunistic infections. Of the patients, 1 presented with wasting syndrome, 3 developed tuberculosis, and 17 had a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention category B-defining event. The 3-year AIDS-free and symptom-free probabilities were 96.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 87.0-99.2] and 79.3% (95% CI, 67.5-87.2), respectively. During the first 3 years of follow-up, we observed that the median plasma viral load stabilized at >4 log 10 copies/ml and that the median CD4 + cell count declined by 20 to 25/mm 3 per year. CONCLUSION: These African seroconverters were moderately immunosuppressed. The median HIV RNA level was high and varied very little during the first 3 years, and there were few clinical events.     

The role of bacterial diarrhea in developing countries

Bacterial diarrheas in developing countries remain a major public health problem. Cholera is endemo-endemic since 1970. Clusters of Shigella infections are commonly observed during the rainy season. Other enteropathogen cause nosocomial infections and foodborne diseases. The HIV epidemic determined the emergence of a new trend of enteric diseases caused by opportunistic bacteria such as Salmonella Enteritidis, S. Typhimurium. The risk factors associated with these infections remains almost unknown. Treatment failure is related to an incre of high level resistance strains.     

Malaria infection during childbirth and in newborns in Bécédi (Ivory Coast)]

Authors studied the parasitological and serological status of 108 new-born children from 102 deliveries during the 2nd term of 1987 at the Bécédi Maternity Hospital in Ivory Coast. The parasitism frequency of different studied bloods (mother, cord, delivery) is varying from 8 to 14%, antibodies have been found in 81 to 83% cases. The parity has an effect on the placental lesions frequency but not on the parasitism frequency. Children born with a pathogenic placenta have a lower birth weight. The retrospective study of 11,070 deliveries from last years shows that birth weight are lower while the two first pregnancies.     

Hemorrhagic forms of Rift Valley fever in Mauritania

During and after a Rift Valley fever (RVF) epidemic in Southern Mauritania, we collected 600 clinical observations. 348 were confirmed to be RVF cases. Among the 5 clinical forms we observed, some are benign but others, especially those with hemorrhagic signs are serious. We observed 48 icterohemorrhagic forms with 25 deaths. An icterus was associated with hemorrhagic signs, varying from gingivorrhagia to abundant bleeding. Biological hepato-nephritis was always present in major hemorrhagic forms. Fulminant forms, spectacular and characteristic are excellent markers for epidemiological studies in the field.     

The nonreplicating smallpox candidate vaccines defective vaccinia Lister (dVV-L) and modified vaccinia Ankara (MVA) elicit robust long-term protection

Current smallpox vaccines are live vaccinia viruses that replicate in the vaccinee inducing immunity against the deadly disease smallpox. Replication resulting in virus spread within the host, however, is the major cause of severe postvaccinal adverse events. Therefore, attenuated strains such as modified vaccinia Ankara (MVA) or LC16m8 are candidates as next generation vaccines. These strains are usually grown in primary cells in which mass production is difficult and have an unknown protective potential in humans. Proven vaccine strains of defined origin and modern production techniques are therefore desirable. In this study, defective vaccinia virus (dVV) lacking a gene essential for replication (derived from the Lister vaccine in a complementing cell line) was compared with the Wyeth smallpox vaccine strain and with MVA in mouse animal models using cowpox and ectromelia virus challenge. Similar to MVA, prime-boost immunizations with defective vaccinia induced robust long-term immunity, suggesting it as a promising next generation smallpox vaccine.     

Investigation d’un foyer épidémique de bilharziose urinaire dans l’école primaire du village de Guébo 2, Abidjan,Côte d’Ivoire

We report the results of an outbreak investigation of urinary schistosomiasis in 2012 among school children at Guébo 2. Among the 250 school children, 107 (42.8%) had confirmed urinary schistosomiasis. Age ≥ 10y (OR = 2.6 [1.1 to 6.2]) and self-reported bathing in the river (OR = 14.0 [4.7 to 42.5]) were associated with the presence of S.h. in the adjusted analyses. A massive deworming of the population of Guébo-1&2 was conducted as epidemicresponse.     

A longitudinal communication approach in advanced lung cancer: A qualitative study of patients’, relatives’ and staff's perspectives

Communication and the care of patients with advanced cancer are a dynamic, interactive and challenging process, often characterised in every day practice by discontinuity and lack of coordination. The objective of this study was to explore the patients’ and family‐caregivers’ needs and preferences regarding communication, quality of life and care over the trajectory of disease. The second aim was to assess health professionals’ views on a longitudinally structured, forward‐thinking communication approach based on defined milestones. A qualitative approach was chosen incorporating semi‐structured interviews with nine patients with metastatic lung cancer and nine relatives, and focus groups with 15 healthcare providers from different professions involved in the care of these patients. Patients and relatives described a situation of shock and coping deficits with moments of insufficient communication and lack of continuity in care. Healthcare providers reported the strong need for improvement in communication within the team and between patients and professionals and welcomed the implementation of a longitudinal communication approach. Requirements for the implementation of a longitudinal communication approach include specific communication training with focus on the process that patients and relatives are involved in. Team‐building measures and the necessary flexibility to respect individuality in life should be incorporated.