Predicting Survival after Trauma: a Comparison of TRISS and ASCOT in the Netherlands

Background: Evaluating the performance of a trauma system may be attempted by comparing outcome in different trauma populations. Controlling for injury severity is a necessity for such evaluations. We compare two current models for doing so: the “Trauma and Injury Severity Score” (TRISS) and “A Severity Characterization Of Trauma” (ASCOT). Material and Methods: This study of high-energy trauma victims took place in Leiden, the Netherlands, between 1993 and 1998. Using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis, the TRISS and ASCOT models were compared for calibration and discrimination. Results: 1,024 patients, with an average Injury Severity Score (ISS) of 13.5, were eligible for inclusion. Blunt trauma was the predominant cause of injuries. Both models gave accurate, though pessimistic, results in predicting the actual number of fatalities (n = 71). The HL test indicated a sufficient fit for the ASCOT model (p = 0.28) and an insufficient fit (p = 0.02) for TRISS. The ROC curves were nearly identical (0.97). Including age as a linear variable, instead of using the current age groups, resulted in an improved discriminative power of the models. Conclusions: The ASCOT model proved superior over TRISS in its accuracy to estimate of survival chances. This difference was most evident for victims with an estimated survival chance of 60–90%. Future national trauma researchers should therefore collect ASCOT data. Improved ASCOT models could be developed, with age as a linear variable. Received: April 25, 2002; revision accepted: September 17, 2002 Correspondence Address Prof. Arie B. van Vugt, MD, PhD, Department of General Surgery and Traumatology, Erasmus MC Rotterdam, Dr. Molewaterplein 40, Postbus 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam, The Netherlands, Phone (+31/10) 463-5735, Fax -4757, e-mail: vanvugt@hlkd.azr.nl     

Predictive testing for complex diseases using multiple genes: Fact or fiction?

PURPOSE: There is ongoing debate about whether testing low-risk genes at multiple loci will be useful in clinical care and public health. We investigated the usefulness of multiple genetic testing using simulated data. METHODS: Usefulness was evaluated by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), which indicates the accuracy of genetic profiling in discriminating between future patients and nonpatients. The AUC was investigated in relation to the number of genes assumed to be involved, the risk allele frequency, the odds ratio of the risk genotypes, and to the proportion of variance explained by genetic factors as an approximation of the heritability of the disease. RESULTS: We demonstrated that a high (AUC > 0.80) to excellent discriminative accuracy (AUC > 0.95) can be obtained by simultaneously testing multiple susceptibility genes. A higher discriminative accuracy is obtained when genetic factors play a larger role in the disease, as indicated by the proportion of explained variance. The maximum discriminative accuracy of future genetic profiling can be estimated at present from the heritability and prevalence of disease. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic profiling may have the potential to identify individuals at higher risk of disease depending on the prevalence and heritability of the disease.     

The use of natural interferon alpha conjugated to a monoclonal antibody anti mammary epithelial mucin (Mc5) for the treatment of human breast cancer xenografts

Summary An immunoconjugate composed of natural interferon (nIFN) bound in a noncleavable fashion to a monoclonal antibody (MoAb) recognizing a breast epithelial membrane mucin (Mc5) was used to treat xenografts of a human mammary carcinoma cell line (MCF-7) growing in nude mice. The immunoconjugate (nIFN/Mc5) was administered as 20 intralesional (i.l.) injections to 1 of 2 xenografts in each animal. It was found that nIFN/Mc5 produced a significant enhancement of the growth inhibitory actions of nIFN on the injected tumors. Further enhancement was obtained when nIFN or nIFN together with Mc5 (at a dose 10 times larger than that present in nIFN/Mc5) were added to the immunoconjugate. Biodistribution experiments showed that the uptake of¹²⁵I-nIFN/Mc5 by the tumors was greater and its elimination slower than for¹²⁵I-nIFN alone or conjugated to irrelevant mouse IgG₁. In addition, the immunoconjugate up-regulated the antigenic expression of a breast epithelial membrane mucin by the carcinoma cells, an up-regulation which was not significantly different from that produced by nIFN alone. The contralateral noninjected tumors exposed to systemic levels of the immunoconjugate showed an enhancement of antitumor effects, but to a lesser extent than the injected tumors. These findings suggest that the enhancement of the growth inhibitory action of the immunoconjugate was related to the specific binding of Mc5 which targeted the IFN to the carcinoma cells and impeded its elimination. It is likely that the targeting was favored by the IFN-mediated up-regulation of antigenic expression by the carcinoma cells, thereby producing a cascade of interrelated effects. The results of this study point out the feasibility and potential usefulness of IFN treatment by means of immunoconjugates as well as the worth of pursuing and improving this form of therapy.     

Correlations in uncertainty analysis for medical decision making: an application to heart-valve replacement.

A Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis with correlations between parameters is applied to a Markov-chain model that is used to support the choice of a replacement heart-valve. The objective is to quantify the effects of uncertainty in and of correlations between probabilities of valve-related events on the life expectancies of four valve types. The uncertainty in the logit- and log-transformed parameters-mostly representing probabilities and durations-is modeled as a multivariate normal distribution. The univariate distributions are obtained through values for the median and the 0.975 quantile of each parameter. Correlations between parameters are difficult to quantify. A sensitivity analysis is suggested to study their influences on the uncertainty in valve preference prior to further elicitation efforts. The results of the uncertainty analysis strengthen the conclusions from a preceding study, which did not include uncertainty in the model parameters, where the homograft turned out to be the best choice. It is concluded that the influence of correlations is limited in most cases. Preference statements become more certain when the correlation between valve types increases.     

Predictors of occult metastasis in clinical stage I nonseminoma: a systematic review.

PURPOSE: Patients with clinical stage I nonseminomatous testicular germ cell tumor should ideally receive adjuvant therapy only when they are at high risk for occult metastasis. We aimed to quantify the importance of predictors for occult metastasis by performing a systematic review of the relevant literature. In addition, we reviewed published multivariable models and risk-adapted treatment policies. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We identified 23 publications between 1979 and 2001, reporting a total of 2,587 patients. Twenty-nine percent of the patients (759 of 2,587 patients) had occult metastases, which was diagnosed either at retroperitoneal lymph node dissection (n = 193) or during follow-up (n = 566). Odds ratios (OR) were pooled using meta-analysis techniques. RESULTS: The presence of vascular invasion of the primary tumor cells had the strongest effect (OR, 5.2; 95% CI, 4.0 to 6.8). Immunohistochemical staining of the primary tumor cells with the MIB-1 monoclonal antibody showing proliferative activity was a promising predictor (OR, 4.7; 95% CI, 2.0 to 11). Intermediate effects were found for embryonal carcinoma in the primary tumor (OR, 2.9; 95% CI, 2.0 to 4.4) and a high pathologic stage of the tumor (OR, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.8 to 3.8). Size of the primary tumor and age of the patient had weaker though also statistically significant associations with occult metastasis. Until now, multivariable models often included vascular invasion and embryonal carcinoma with one or two weaker predictors. None of the published risk-adapted treatment policies included MIB-1 staining. CONCLUSION: Several strong predictors for occult metastasis were identified. A risk-adapted treatment policy should be developed that incorporates all relevant predictors so that adjuvant therapy is targeted better to those with occult metastases.     

Informed consent, parental awareness, and reasons for participating in a randomised controlled study

BACKGROUND: The informed consent procedure plays a central role in randomised controlled trials but has only been explored in a few studies on children. AIM: To assess the quality of the informed consent process in a paediatric setting. METHODS: A questionnaire was sent to parents who volunteered their child (230 children) for a randomised, double blind, placebo controlled trial of ibuprofen syrup to prevent recurrent febrile seizures. RESULTS: 181 (79%) parents responded. On average, 73% of parents were aware of the major study characteristics. A few had difficulty understanding the information provided. Major factors in parents granting approval were the contribution to clinical science (51%) and benefit to the child (32%). Sociodemographic status did not influence initial participation but west European origin of the father was associated with willingness to participate in future trials. 89% of participants felt positive about the informed consent procedure; however, 25% stated that they felt obliged to participate. Although their reasons for granting approval and their evaluation of the informed consent procedure did not differ, relatively more were hesitant about participating in future. Parents appreciated the investigator being on call 24 hours a day (38%) and the extra medical care and information provided (37%) as advantages of participation. Disadvantages were mainly the time consuming aspects and the work involved (23%). CONCLUSIONS: Parents' understanding of trial characteristics might be improved by designing less difficult informed consent forms and by the investigator giving extra attention and information to non-west European parents. Adequate measures should be taken to avoid parents feeling obliged to participate, rather than giving true informed consent.