Challenges with Forecasting Budget Impact: A Case Study of Six ICER Reports

Background

Payers frequently rely on budget impact model (BIM) results to help determine drug coverage policy and its effect on their bottom line. It is unclear whether BIMs typically overestimate or underestimate real-world budget impact.

Analysis of relative effectiveness of high-dose versus standard-dose influenza vaccines using an instrumental variable method

Background

Observational studies of the relative effectiveness of influenza vaccines are essential for public health decision making. Their estimates, however, are subject to bias due to unmeasured confounders. Instrumental variable (IV) methods can control for observed and unobserved confounders.

Defenses of the hamster lung against human neutrophil and porcine pancreatic elastase

Instillation of human neutrophil elastase (HNE) into hamster lungs produces milder emphysema but more pulmonary hemorrhage than an equivalent amount of porcine pancreatic elastase (PPE), whether equivalence is determined by elastolytic units or moles. We undertook a study of the mechanisms of these differences. 125I-HNE or 3H-PPE were instilled intratracheally into hamsters. The partitioning of radioactivity between bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BAL) and lung tissue was similar for HNE and PPE as were the half-lives, 45 and 51 min, respectively, for uncomplexed, enzymatically active HNE and PPE. In BAL there was preferential binding and inactivation of HNE by the hamsters' alpha-1-protease inhibitor (a-1-PI) whereas PPE was preferentially bound by alpha-2-macroglobulin (a-2-M). This was also observed in vitro when HNE and PPE were incubated with plasma from untreated hamsters. Nevertheless, when the sum of the elastase binding capacity of a-1-PI and a-2-M was considered, hamster plasma had similar binding capacities for HNE and PPE. It is known that the enzymatic activity of elastases is inhibited by formation of a stable complex with a-1-PI. On the other hand, elastases bound to a-2-M are protected against a-1-PI inhibition but can free themselves by proteolysis and exhibit elastolytic activity. Preferential inactivation of HNE by a-1-PI may be one mechanism that accounts for the lesser emphysema-inducing potency of HNE than of PPE.     

Doppler evaluation of normalized peak filling rate in normal children and children with left ventricular outflow obstruction.

To evaluate the early diastolic peak filling rate of the left ventricle, three groups of children (normal children, patients with aortic valvular stenosis, and patients with aortic coarctation) were examined with the peak filling rate normalized to stroke volume calculated from the mitral valve inflow Doppler recording as the peak E velocity divided by the velocity time integral. The normal value for this index in children was 6.78 +/- 0.99 SV/sec and did not vary with age, weight, body surface area, or heart rate. Compared with normal subjects, both patients with aortic stenosis and patients with coarctation had increased left ventricular mass, but patients with aortic stenosis had decreased normalized peak filling rates (5.3 +/- 0.84 SV/sec, p < 0.01), while patients with coarctation had normal rates (6.79 +/- 0.98 SV/sec, p = 0.97). Compared with patients with aortic coarctation, patients with aortic stenosis had higher Doppler gradients. Thus the Doppler index of peak filling rate normalized to stroke volume is particularly useful in children because it is independent of heart rate, age, weight, and body surface area. Patients with coarctation may have normal peak filling rates normalized to stroke volume despite increased left ventricular mass because of milder obstruction or better coronary artery perfusion compared with that of patients with aortic stenosis.     

Assessment of Seasonal Variability of Cytochemical Responses to Contaminant Exposure in the Blue Mussel <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mytilus edulis</Emphasis> (Complex)

A selected suite of cytochemical parameters in Mytilus edulis are altered in response to field and laboratory exposure to chemical contaminants. These biomarkers include lysosomal stability, nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate (NADPH)–ferrihemoprotein reductase activity, liposfuscin deposition, and accumulation of lysosomal and cytoplasmic unsaturated neutral lipid. Normal variations in physiological processes (influenced by exogenous seasonal changes in temperature, salinity, food availability, etc.) may alter the sensitivity of these biomarkers to contaminant exposure. To address this issue, M. edulis (complex) were sampled monthly from a reference nonurban site (Coupeville, Penn Cove) and a polluted urban site (Seacrest, Elliott Bay) in Puget Sound, WA, for a period of 15 months. Physiological measurements including total length, total weight, somatic and mantle weights (an indication of gonadal development and reproductive status), condition index, and the presence or absence of hemic neoplasia (HN, or leukemia) were recorded. Significant differences in lysosomal stability, lysosomal and cytoplasmic unsaturated neutral lipids, lipofuscin deposition, and NADPH–ferrihemoprotein reductase activity in cells of the digestive gland or digestive tubules were generally found in mussels taken throughout the year from Seacrest compared to mussels sampled from Coupeville, consistent with exposure to chemical contaminants. No seasonally influenced suppression of the entire suite of parameters as measures of contaminant exposure was evident. Therefore these biomarkers can be used to evaluate contaminant exposure in mussels throughout the entire year. Received: 16 December 2001/Accepted: 30 May 2002     

Retention of "safe" blood donors. The Retrovirus Epidemiology Donor Study

BACKGROUND: There are obvious advantages to increasing donor retention. However, for reasons of blood safety, certain donors may, in fact, be more desirable to retain than others. “Safe” donors are defined as those who provided a blood donation that was negative on all laboratory screening tests and who subsequently reported no behavioral risks in response to an anonymous survey. This study identifies the most important factors affecting the intention of “safe” donors to provide another donation. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: An anonymous survey asking about donation history, sexual history, injecting drug use, and recent donation experience was mailed to 50,162 randomly selected allogeneic donors (including directed donors) who gave blood from April through July or from October through December 1993 at one of the five United States blood centers participating in the Retrovirus Epidemiology Donor Study. Before mailing, questionnaires were coded to designate donors with nonreactive laboratory screening tests at their most recent donation. RESULTS: A total of 34,726 donors (69%) responded, with substantially higher response among repeat donors. According to reported intentions only, the vast majority of “safe” donors indicated a high likelihood of donating again within the next 12 months. Only 3.4 percent reported a low likelihood of donating again. A comparison of those likely to return and those unlikely to return reveals significant differences in demographics and in ratings of the donation experience. A higher proportion of those unlikely to return were first-time donors, minority-group donors, and donors with less education. The highest projected loss among “safe” donors was seen for those who gave a fair to poor assessment of their treatment by blood center staff or of their physical well-being during or after donating. CONCLUSION: These data suggest that efforts to improve donors' perceptions of their donation experience, as well as attention to the physical effects of blood donation, may aid in the retention of both repeat and first-time donors.     

Pulmonary complications after tricyclic antidepressant overdose

We studied 82 consecutive patients admitted to the ICU with predominant tricyclic antidepressant overdose (mean plasma tricyclic level, 1,025 ng/ml) to determine the nature and incidence of respiratory complications. The majority of patients (80.4 percent) had a decreased arterial to alveolar oxygen tension ratio (PaO2/PAO2) on initial emergency room arterial blood gas analysis (mean, 0.56). Mechanical ventilation was required in 76.8 percent of the patients for a mean duration of 46.2 h. Chest radiograph abnormalities developed during the first 48 h in 32/82 patients (39 percent). The group with radiographic abnormalities had higher mean drug levels than the group without (p less than 0.05). Of 82 patients, nine (11 percent) developed radiographic evidence of bilateral alveolar infiltrates suggestive of acute lung injury. This group had significantly higher mean drug levels than the groups with other types of radiographic abnormalities (p less than 0.001). Charcoal was recovered from the airway of 18/72 patients who received activated charcoal slurry by nasogastric tube in the emergency room after endotracheal intubation. The group who aspirated did not show statistically significant difference in the incidence of chest radiograph abnormalities, gas exchange, or survival compared with the group that did not aspirate.     

Effects of coenzyme athletic performance system as an ergogenic aid on endurance performance to exhaustion.

This study examined the effects of the Coenzyme Athletic Performance System (CAPS) on endurance performance to exhaustion. CAPS contains 100 mg coenzyme Q10, 500 mg cytochrome C, 100 mg inosine, and 200 IU vitamin E. Eleven highly trained male triathletes were given three daily doses of either CAPS or placebo (dicalcium phosphate) for two 4-week periods using a double-blind crossover design. A 4-week washout period separated the two treatment periods. An exhaustive performance test, consisting of 90 minutes of running on a treadmill (70% VO2max) followed by cycling (70% VO2max) until exhaustion, was conducted after each treatment period. The mean (+/- SEM) time to exhaustion for the subjects using CAPS (223 +/- 17 min) was not significantly different (p = 0.57) from the placebo trial (215 +/- 9 min). Blood glucose, lactate, and free fatty acid concentrations at exhaustion did not differ between treatments (p < 0.05). CAPS had no apparent benefit on exercise to exhaustion.     

Development of commissural neurons in the embryonic rat spinal cord.

Little is known about the development of the various populations of interneurons in the mammalian spinal cord. We have utilized the lipid-soluble tracer DiI in fixed tissue to study the migration and dendritic arborization of spinal neurons with axons in the ventral commissure in embryonic rats. Crystals of DiI were placed in various locations in the thoracic spinal cord in order to label commissural neurons within the dorsal horn, intermediate zone, and ventral horn at E13.5, E15, E17, and E19. Seven different groups of commissural interneurons are present in the spinal cord by E13.5. Migration is relatively simple with groups occupying a position along the dorsoventral axis roughly corresponding to their position of origin along the neuroepithelium. By E15, commissural cells are near their final locations and exhibit characteristic morphology. One striking feature is the tendency of cells with similar morphology to cluster in distinct groups. By E19, at least 18 different types of commissural interneurons can be identified on morphological grounds. Although the situation is complex, some generalities about dendritic morphology are apparent. Commissural neurons located in the dorsal horn are small and have highly branched dendrites oriented along the dorsoventral axis. In more ventral regions, commissural neurons are larger and possess dendritic arbors oriented obliquely or parallel to the mediolateral axis with long dendrites extending toward the lateral and ventral funiculi. The number of primary dendrites of most groups is set by E15 and dendritic growth occurs in the transverse plane by lengthening and branching of these primary processes. This study demonstrates that a large number of classes of commissural interneurons can be recognized on the basis of characteristic morphologies and locations within the dorsal horn, intermediate zone and ventral horn of the embryonic rat spinal cord. This finding is consistent with the fact that commissural neurons project to many different targets and mediate a variety of different functions. The demonstration that dendritic arbors of spinal interneurons with characteristic morphologies can be conveniently labelled with DiI should prove useful in future studies on the development of specific circuits in the mammalian spinal cord.