Lifetime fracture risk: an approach to hip fracture risk assessment based on bone mineral density and age

Hip fractures occur late in life following a substantial reduction in skeletal mass. If risk for such fractures could be predicted early, efforts to prevent excessive bone loss would be more successful and could be directed at the individuals most likely to be affected. With this objective in mind, we devised an approach to estimating the lifetime risk of a proximal femur fracture based on age and on current femoral bone mineral density, using population-based data from ongoing studies of osteoporosis and fractures among Rochester, Minnesota, women. Our calculations indicate that, at any given age, the lifetime risk of a proximal femur fracture rises as current bone density diminishes. At any given level of femoral bone density, lifetime risk rises with younger age and increasing life expectancy. While these trends seem robust, estimates of risk vary substantially with the assumptions that underlie the model. Consequently, these assumptions must be validated before our findings can be applied clinically to predict risk for individual patients.     

A phase I-II trial of 4'-deoxydoxorubicin (esorubicin) in refractory or relapsed acute leukemia

In a phase I-II study, 21 patients with relapsed or refractory acute leukemia were treated with 4'-deoxydoxorubicin (esorubicin), the 4'-deoxy derivative of doxorubicin. Four of 14 evaluable patients with acute nonlymphocytic leukemia (ANLL) in relapse or refractory to other anthracyclines achieved partial response (28.5%). Pharmacokinetics were similar to those of the parent compound, doxorubicin. Esorubicin has activity in ANLL and has pharmacologic properties comparable to those of other anthracyclines. Dose-limiting toxicity occurs in the form of mucositis, which may limit its use in combination with other antileukemic drugs.     

Effect of blockade of TNF-alpha and interleukin-1 action on bone resorption in early postmenopausal women.

After acute estrogen withdrawal in postmenopausal women, administration of anakinra or etanercept, specific blockers of IL-1 and TNF-alpha, respectively, reduced the rise in bone resorption markers to about one half of that in controls. This is consistent with an important role for these immune cytokines in mediating the effect of estrogen deficiency on bone. INTRODUCTION: Studies in rodents have implicated increased production of interleukin (IL)-1 beta and TNF-alpha as mediators of bone loss after ovariectomy, but their roles are unclear in humans whose immune system differs markedly from that of rodents. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We administered transdermal estradiol, 0.1 mg/d, for 60 days to 42 early postmenopausal women. Estrogen treatment was discontinued, and subjects were randomly assigned to intervention groups receiving 3 wk of injections with 0.9% saline, anakinra 100 mg/d, or etanercept 25 mg/twice weekly. Bone turnover was assessed by measuring serum carboxyl-terminal telopeptide of type 1 collagen (CTX) and amino-terminal telopeptide of type 1 collagen (NTX), markers for bone resorption, and serum amino-terminal propeptide of type 1 collagen (P1NP), a marker for bone formation. Results were expressed as percent change in markers from baseline (last 2 days of estrogen treatment and days 20 and 21 of intervention). RESULTS: The percent changes from baseline during intervention for serum CTX, urine NTX, and serum PINP, respectively, were 43.3 +/- 8.0%, 12.0 +/- 7.1%, and -41.0 +/- 2.5% for the control group; 25.9 +/- 6.3%, 9.5 +/- 4.0%, and -37.8 +/- 3.0% for the anakinra group; and 21.7 +/- 5.0%, 0.32 +/- 3.82%, and -34.5 +/- 3.9% for the etanercept group. Compared with the control group, the blunting of the increase in serum CTX fell just below the level of significance (p=0.10) after anakinra treatment, whereas the blunting of the increase in serum CTX (p=0.034) and in urine NTX (p=0.048) were significant after etanercept treatment. Other changes were not significant. CONCLUSIONS: The data are consistent with a role for TNF-alpha, and possibly for IL-1 beta, in mediating increased bone resorption during estrogen deficiency in women. Although either cytokine blocker reduced serum CTX by about one half, the effect of combined blockade could not be tested because of concerns about toxicity. The data do not exclude direct or indirect contributory roles for RANKL or for other cytokines.     

Effects of sex and age on bone microstructure at the ultradistal radius: a population-based noninvasive in vivo assessment.

In a population-based cross-sectional study, we examined effects of sex and age on bone microstructure at the wrist using high-resolution 3-D pQCT. Compared with women, men had thicker trabeculae in young adulthood and had less microstructural damage with aging. These findings may contribute to the virtual immunity of men to age-related increases in wrist fractures. INTRODUCTION: Although changes in bone microstructure contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD, it has not heretofore been possible to assess this noninvasively in population-based studies. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used high-resolution 3-D pQCT imaging (voxel size, 89 mum) to define, in a random sample of women (n = 324) and men (n = 278) 21-97 years of age, sex and age effects on bone microstructure at the wrist. RESULTS: Relative to young women (age, 20-29 years), young men had greater trabecular bone volume/tissue volume (BV/TV; by 26%, p = 0.001) and trabecular thickness (TbTh; by 28%, p < 0.001) but similar values for trabecular number (TbN) and trabecular separation (TbSp). Between ages 20 and 90 years, cross-sectional decreases in BV/TV were similar in women (-27%) and in men (-26%), but whereas women had significant decreases in TbN (-13%) and increases in TbSp (+24%), these parameters had little net change over life in men (+7% and -2% for TbN and TbSp, respectively; p < 0.001 versus women). However, TbTh decreased to a greater extent in men (-24%) than in women (-18%; p = 0.010 versus men). CONCLUSIONS: Whereas decreases with age in trabecular BV/TV are similar in men and women, the structural basis for the decrease in trabecular volume is quite different between the sexes. Thus, over life, women undergo loss of trabeculae with an increase in TbSp, whereas men begin young adult life with thicker trabeculae and primarily sustain trabecular thinning with no net change in TbN or TbSp. Because decreases in TbN have been shown to have a much greater impact on bone strength compared with decreases in TbTh, these findings may help explain the lower life-long risk of fractures in men, and specifically, their virtual immunity to age-related increases in distal forearm fractures.     

A potentially deleterious role of IGFBP-2 on bone density in aging men and women.

The role of the IGFs and IGFBPs on age-related changes in BMD in adult men and women is not well understood. Studying an age-stratified community based sample of 344 men and 276 women, we found higher IGFBP-2 levels to be associated with lower BMD. IGFBP-2, which increases with age in both men and women, was the strongest, most consistent predictor of BMD among the IGF/IGFBPs studied. INTRODUCTION: Insulin-like growth factors (IGFs) and their binding proteins (IGFBPs) are important regulators of tissue growth and metabolism, but their association with BMD in adult men and women is controversial. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In an age-stratified, random sample of the community population, we examined the role of serum levels of IGF-I, IGF-II, and IGFBP-1, -2, and -3 on BMD of the proximal femur (total hip), lateral spine, midshaft, and ultradistal radius as measured by DXA. We explored the association before and after adjustment for potential confounders, including age, bioavailable estradiol and testosterone, sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG), and measures of total fat and skeletal muscle mass. RESULTS: We studied 344 men (age, 23-90 years) and 276 women (age, 21-93 years; 166 postmenopausal) not on hormone replacement or oral contraceptives. In both men and women, IGF-I and IGFBP-3 levels fell with advancing age, whereas IGFBP-2 levels tended to rise with age. There was an inverse association of IGFBP-2 with BMD at most skeletal sites in men and both premenopausal and postmenopausal women, whereas lower IGF-I and IGFBP-3 were associated with lower BMD in men and postmenopausal women only. Lower IGF-II was associated with lower BMD in men only. There were no associations between IGFBP-1 and BMD in either sex. After adjustment for age, in most cases, we found no further associations between IGF-I, IGF-II, or IGFBP-3 and BMD. In contrast, after age adjustment, higher IGFBP-2 remained a predictor of lower BMD in men and postmenopausal women at all sites except for the lateral spine (for men: r = -0.21, -0.20, and -0.19, all p < 0.001; and for postmenopausal women: r = -0.34, -0.24, and -0.25, all p < 0.01, for the total hip, midshaft, and ultradistal radius, respectively). IGFBP-2 remained an independent negative predictor of BMD in men, postmenopausal women, and all women combined after additional adjustment for bioavailable sex steroids, but not at all sites after adjustment for SHBG and muscle mass. In premenopausal women, IGFBP-2 had similar associations as seen in postmenopausal women, but they were weaker and not statistically robust. CONCLUSIONS: Among the IGF/IGFBPs in our study, IGFBP-2 was a key negative predictor of BMD among men and women, particularly postmenopausal women. Our findings suggest a potential role of the IGF/IGFBP system in regulating bone loss in aging men and women and identify a previously under-recognized, potentially deleterious role for IGFBP-2, a known inhibitor of IGF action that increases with age in both sexes. Whether the action of the IGF/IGFBP system on bone metabolism is mediated partly through its effects on muscle mass or SHBG deserves further study.     

The initial impact of computed tomography on mortality attributed to brain tumor.

The exponential growth in the number of computed tomography scanners in the United States between 1975 and 1977 was associated with a transient increase (11.9 and 14.4% for men and women, respectively) in annual crude mortality rates for primary malignant brain tumor from 1976 through 1978. This transient increase in mortality appears to have been an artifactual epiphenomenon associated with the introduction of a new technology.     

Longitudinal Gompertzian analysis of pancreatic cancer mortality in the U.S., 1962-1987: distinguishing between competitive and environmental influences upon evolving mortality patterns.

Pancreatic cancer (PanC) is an extraordinarily lethal neoplasm that is currently the fifth leading cause of cancer death in the United States. Annual age-specific mortality rates for PanC in the U.S. from 1962 to 1987 were subjected to longitudinal Gompertzian analysis. Age-specific PanC mortality rate distributions between age 30 and 60 years were determined by a common fixed intersect point and a variable competitive factor. The intersect point for PanC occurred at age 59.5 years and mortality rate 37.4 per 100,000 for men, and at age 53.2 years and mortality rate 7.9 per 100,000 for women. These intersect points are determined by genetic and environmental influences upon mortality. The observation that these points have remained fixed suggests that there has been no significant alteration in environmental etiopathogenic influences upon PanC mortality. Longitudinal Gompertzian analysis suggests that the emergence of PanC in the U.S. as a significant cause of cancer mortality has been the consequence of competitive influences upon PanC mortality dynamics.     

OLDER PEOPLE: THE EFFECT OF ACTIVITIES ON THEIR SOCIAL INTERACTIONS

This exploratory study, funded by the Australian Rotary Health Research Fund, investigated the factors affecting the social interactions of older people. The study was based on interviews with one hundred people aged 65 years and over to determine their past activities, present pursuits and the activities, if any, in which they would like to be involved. This article, the second of two, examines the results relating to the activities and social interactions of older people.     

Using the Gompertz-Strehler model of aging and mortality to explain mortality trends in industrialized countries.

Mortality trends in industrialized countries are characterized by declines in vascular disease (ischemic heart disease and stroke) and rises in cancers and degenerative diseases. These trends are typically analyzed by examining each disorder in isolation using the perspective of genetic and environmental influences. However, longitudinal Gompertzian analysis and the Gompertz-Strehler model of aging and mortality as modified by Lestienne suggest that age-specific mortality rates, for both general and disease-specific mortality, are an interrelated deterministic function of aggregate genetic, environmental and competitive influences. Consequently, evolving mortality trends and patterns appear to be influenced by three factors (with deterministic competition being the third factor), rather than just two factors (genetic and environmental) as commonly depicted.