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Background
Payers frequently rely on budget impact model (BIM) results to help determine drug coverage policy and its effect on their bottom line. It is unclear whether BIMs typically overestimate or underestimate real-world budget impact.Objective
We examined how different modeling assumptions influenced the results of 6 BIMs from the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER).Study Design
Retrospective analysis of pharmaceutical sales data.Methods
From ICER reports issued before 2016, we collected estimates of 3 BIM outputs: aggregate therapy cost (ie, cost to treat the patient population with a particular therapy), therapy uptake, and price. We compared these against real-world estimates that we generated using drug sales data. We considered 2 classes of BIM estimates: those forecasting future uptake of new agents, which assumed “unmanaged uptake,” and those describing the contemporaneous market state (ie, estimates of current, managed uptake and budget impact for compounds already on the market).Results
Differences between ICER's estimates and our own were largest for forecasted studies. Here, ICER's uptake estimates exceeded real-world estimates by factors ranging from 7.4 (sacubitril/valsartan) to 54 (hepatitis C treatments). The “unmanaged uptake” assumption (removed from ICER's approach in 2017) yields large deviations between BIM estimates and real-world consumption. Nevertheless, in some cases, ICER's BIMs that relied on current market estimates also deviated substantially from real-world sales data.Conclusions
This study highlights challenges with forecasting budget impact. In particular, assumptions about uptake and data source selection can greatly influence the accuracy of results. 相似文献Main outcome measures In all subjects expiratory volumes were determined and urinary analysis was conducted for hydroxyproline, calcium, phosphorus, and cortisol levels. Osteocalcin, calcium, phosphorus, cortisol, alkaline phosphatase, and γ-glutamyltransferase levels were measured in blood samples. Bone density of the lumbar spine was determined by means of dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. Nutrition evaluation was based on a 3-day food diary analyzed using progiciel Nutri 91. The nutritional parameters examined were calcium; phosphorus; magnesium; zinc; vitamins A, C, and D; protein; total fiber; oxalates; energy; caffeine; and alcohol in relation to bone density.
Subjects Thirty-one patients with moderate to severe asthma who had been taking more than 1,000 μg beclomethasone per day or the equivalent for more than 2 years and 27 patients with mild asthma who were taking less than 500 μg beclomethasone per day or the equivalent.
Statistical analyses performed Four factor analysis of variance with hierarchized interactions of four levels, Duncan's test, Pearson correlation coefficients.
Results Blood levels of osteocalcin and protein intake were lower in patients with moderate to severe asthma than in those with mild asthma (P<.05). Significant correlations (P<.02) were observed between bone density and calcium intake (r=.40), phosphorus intake (r=.35), protein intake (r=.30), and serum alkaline phosphatase level (r=−.30). Bone density was not significantly different between the two groups of patients with asthma.
Applications A follow-up of patients with asthma who are taking inhaled corticosteroids is needed to assess bone density, osteocalcin levels, and dietary intakes of calcium. Verify if osteocalcin level decreases over time in patients with moderate to severe asthma, monitor possible modifications in bone density, and verify if the correlation between dietary calcium and bone density is maintained. J Am Diet Assoc. 1997;97:1401–1406. 相似文献