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Forensic age estimation generally involves considerable amounts of uncertainty. Forensic age indicators such as teeth or skeleton images predict age only approximately, and this is likely to remain true even for future forensic age indicators. Thus, forensic age assessment should aim to make the best possible decisions under uncertainty. In this paper, we apply mathematical theory to make statistically optimal decisions to age assessment. Such an application is fairly straightforward assuming there is a standardized procedure for obtaining age indicator information from individuals, assuming we have data from the application of this procedure to a group of persons with known ages, and assuming the starting point for each individual is a probability distribution describing prior knowledge about the persons age. The main problem is then to obtain such a prior. Our analysis indicates that individual priors rather than a common prior for all persons may be necessary. We suggest that caseworkers, based on individual case information, may select a prior from a menu of priors. We show how information may then be collected over time to gradually increase the robustness of the decision procedure. We also show how replacing individual prior distributions for age with individual prior odds for being above an age limit cannot be recommended as a general method. Our theoretical framework is applied to data where the maturity of the distal femur and the third molar is observed using MRI. As part of this analysis we observe a weak positive conditional correlation between maturity of the two body parts.

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Red cell exchange (RCE) is a common procedure in adults with sickle cell disease (SCD). Implantable dual lumen Vortex (DLV) ports can be used for RCE in patients with poor peripheral venous access. We performed a retrospective cohort study of RCE procedures performed in adults with SCD. The main objective of the study was to compare the inlet speed, duration of procedures and rate of complications performed through DLV ports to those performed through temporary central venous and peripheral catheters. Twenty‐nine adults with SCD underwent a total of 318 RCE procedures. Twenty adults had DLV ports placed and 218 procedures were performed using DLV ports. Mean length of follow‐up after DLV port placement was 397 ± 263 days. Six DLV ports were removed due to infection and 1 for malfunction after a mean of 171 ± 120 days. Compared to temporary central venous and peripheral catheters, DLV port procedures had a greater rate of procedural complications, a longer duration, and a lower inlet speed (all P < 0.01). When accounting for the maximum allowable inlet speed to avoid citrate toxicity, 40% of DLV port procedures were greater than 10% below maximum speed, compared to 7 and 14% of procedures performed through temporary central venous and peripheral catheters (P < 0.0001). In conclusion, DLV ports can be used for RCE in adults with SCD, albeit with more procedural complications and longer duration. The smaller internal diameter and longer catheter of DLV ports compared to temporary central venous catheters likely accounts for the differences noted. J. Clin. Apheresis 30:353–358, 2015. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.  相似文献   
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Delayed contrast enhancement after injection of a gadolinium-chelate (Gd-chelate) is a reference imaging method to detect myocardial tissue changes. Its localization within the thickness of the myocardial wall allows differentiating various pathological processes such as myocardial infarction (MI), inflammatory myocarditis, and cardiomyopathies. The aim of the study was first to characterize benign myocarditis using quantitative delayed-enhancement imaging and then to investigate whether the measure of the extracellular volume fraction (ECV) can be used to discriminate between MI and myocarditis.In 6 patients with acute benign myocarditis (32.2 ± 13.8 year-old, subepicardial late gadolinium enhancement [LGE]) and 18 patients with MI (52.3 ± 10.9 year-old, subendocardial/transmural LGE), myocardial T1 was determined using the Modified Look-Locker Imaging (MOLLI) sequence at 3 Tesla before and after Gd-chelate injection. T1 values were compared in LGE and normal regions of the myocardium. The myocardial T1 values were normalized to the T1 of blood, and the ECV was calculated from T1 values of myocardium and blood pre- and post-Gd injection.In both myocarditis and MI, the T1 was lower in LGE regions than in normal regions of the left ventricle. T1 of LGE areas was significantly higher in myocarditis than in MI (446.8 ± 45.8 vs 360.5 ± 66.9 ms, P = 0.003) and ECV was lower in myocarditis than in MI (34.5 ± 3.3 vs 53.8 ± 13.0 %, P = 0.004).Both inflammatory process and chronic fibrosis induce LGE (subepicardial in myocarditis and subendocardial in MI). The present study demonstrates that the determination of T1 and ECV is able to differentiate the 2 histological patterns.Further investigation will indicate whether the severity of ECV changes might help refine the predictive risk of LGE in myocarditis.  相似文献   
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