Challenges with Forecasting Budget Impact: A Case Study of Six ICER Reports

Background

Payers frequently rely on budget impact model (BIM) results to help determine drug coverage policy and its effect on their bottom line. It is unclear whether BIMs typically overestimate or underestimate real-world budget impact.

Analysis of relative effectiveness of high-dose versus standard-dose influenza vaccines using an instrumental variable method

Background

Observational studies of the relative effectiveness of influenza vaccines are essential for public health decision making. Their estimates, however, are subject to bias due to unmeasured confounders. Instrumental variable (IV) methods can control for observed and unobserved confounders.

Defenses of the hamster lung against human neutrophil and porcine pancreatic elastase

Instillation of human neutrophil elastase (HNE) into hamster lungs produces milder emphysema but more pulmonary hemorrhage than an equivalent amount of porcine pancreatic elastase (PPE), whether equivalence is determined by elastolytic units or moles. We undertook a study of the mechanisms of these differences. 125I-HNE or 3H-PPE were instilled intratracheally into hamsters. The partitioning of radioactivity between bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BAL) and lung tissue was similar for HNE and PPE as were the half-lives, 45 and 51 min, respectively, for uncomplexed, enzymatically active HNE and PPE. In BAL there was preferential binding and inactivation of HNE by the hamsters' alpha-1-protease inhibitor (a-1-PI) whereas PPE was preferentially bound by alpha-2-macroglobulin (a-2-M). This was also observed in vitro when HNE and PPE were incubated with plasma from untreated hamsters. Nevertheless, when the sum of the elastase binding capacity of a-1-PI and a-2-M was considered, hamster plasma had similar binding capacities for HNE and PPE. It is known that the enzymatic activity of elastases is inhibited by formation of a stable complex with a-1-PI. On the other hand, elastases bound to a-2-M are protected against a-1-PI inhibition but can free themselves by proteolysis and exhibit elastolytic activity. Preferential inactivation of HNE by a-1-PI may be one mechanism that accounts for the lesser emphysema-inducing potency of HNE than of PPE.     

Doppler evaluation of normalized peak filling rate in normal children and children with left ventricular outflow obstruction.

To evaluate the early diastolic peak filling rate of the left ventricle, three groups of children (normal children, patients with aortic valvular stenosis, and patients with aortic coarctation) were examined with the peak filling rate normalized to stroke volume calculated from the mitral valve inflow Doppler recording as the peak E velocity divided by the velocity time integral. The normal value for this index in children was 6.78 +/- 0.99 SV/sec and did not vary with age, weight, body surface area, or heart rate. Compared with normal subjects, both patients with aortic stenosis and patients with coarctation had increased left ventricular mass, but patients with aortic stenosis had decreased normalized peak filling rates (5.3 +/- 0.84 SV/sec, p < 0.01), while patients with coarctation had normal rates (6.79 +/- 0.98 SV/sec, p = 0.97). Compared with patients with aortic coarctation, patients with aortic stenosis had higher Doppler gradients. Thus the Doppler index of peak filling rate normalized to stroke volume is particularly useful in children because it is independent of heart rate, age, weight, and body surface area. Patients with coarctation may have normal peak filling rates normalized to stroke volume despite increased left ventricular mass because of milder obstruction or better coronary artery perfusion compared with that of patients with aortic stenosis.     

Assessment of Seasonal Variability of Cytochemical Responses to Contaminant Exposure in the Blue Mussel <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mytilus edulis</Emphasis> (Complex)

A selected suite of cytochemical parameters in Mytilus edulis are altered in response to field and laboratory exposure to chemical contaminants. These biomarkers include lysosomal stability, nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate (NADPH)–ferrihemoprotein reductase activity, liposfuscin deposition, and accumulation of lysosomal and cytoplasmic unsaturated neutral lipid. Normal variations in physiological processes (influenced by exogenous seasonal changes in temperature, salinity, food availability, etc.) may alter the sensitivity of these biomarkers to contaminant exposure. To address this issue, M. edulis (complex) were sampled monthly from a reference nonurban site (Coupeville, Penn Cove) and a polluted urban site (Seacrest, Elliott Bay) in Puget Sound, WA, for a period of 15 months. Physiological measurements including total length, total weight, somatic and mantle weights (an indication of gonadal development and reproductive status), condition index, and the presence or absence of hemic neoplasia (HN, or leukemia) were recorded. Significant differences in lysosomal stability, lysosomal and cytoplasmic unsaturated neutral lipids, lipofuscin deposition, and NADPH–ferrihemoprotein reductase activity in cells of the digestive gland or digestive tubules were generally found in mussels taken throughout the year from Seacrest compared to mussels sampled from Coupeville, consistent with exposure to chemical contaminants. No seasonally influenced suppression of the entire suite of parameters as measures of contaminant exposure was evident. Therefore these biomarkers can be used to evaluate contaminant exposure in mussels throughout the entire year. Received: 16 December 2001/Accepted: 30 May 2002     

Pulmonary complications after tricyclic antidepressant overdose

We studied 82 consecutive patients admitted to the ICU with predominant tricyclic antidepressant overdose (mean plasma tricyclic level, 1,025 ng/ml) to determine the nature and incidence of respiratory complications. The majority of patients (80.4 percent) had a decreased arterial to alveolar oxygen tension ratio (PaO2/PAO2) on initial emergency room arterial blood gas analysis (mean, 0.56). Mechanical ventilation was required in 76.8 percent of the patients for a mean duration of 46.2 h. Chest radiograph abnormalities developed during the first 48 h in 32/82 patients (39 percent). The group with radiographic abnormalities had higher mean drug levels than the group without (p less than 0.05). Of 82 patients, nine (11 percent) developed radiographic evidence of bilateral alveolar infiltrates suggestive of acute lung injury. This group had significantly higher mean drug levels than the groups with other types of radiographic abnormalities (p less than 0.001). Charcoal was recovered from the airway of 18/72 patients who received activated charcoal slurry by nasogastric tube in the emergency room after endotracheal intubation. The group who aspirated did not show statistically significant difference in the incidence of chest radiograph abnormalities, gas exchange, or survival compared with the group that did not aspirate.