Mathematically optimal decisions in forensic age assessment

Forensic age estimation generally involves considerable amounts of uncertainty. Forensic age indicators such as teeth or skeleton images predict age only approximately, and this is likely to remain true even for future forensic age indicators. Thus, forensic age assessment should aim to make the best possible decisions under uncertainty. In this paper, we apply mathematical theory to make statistically optimal decisions to age assessment. Such an application is fairly straightforward assuming there is a standardized procedure for obtaining age indicator information from individuals, assuming we have data from the application of this procedure to a group of persons with known ages, and assuming the starting point for each individual is a probability distribution describing prior knowledge about the persons age. The main problem is then to obtain such a prior. Our analysis indicates that individual priors rather than a common prior for all persons may be necessary. We suggest that caseworkers, based on individual case information, may select a prior from a menu of priors. We show how information may then be collected over time to gradually increase the robustness of the decision procedure. We also show how replacing individual prior distributions for age with individual prior odds for being above an age limit cannot be recommended as a general method. Our theoretical framework is applied to data where the maturity of the distal femur and the third molar is observed using MRI. As part of this analysis we observe a weak positive conditional correlation between maturity of the two body parts.

     

Increased Levels of Soluble Tumour Necrosis Factor Receptor-I (P55) and Decreased IgG1 Reactivities in HIV-1 Patients with Cytomegalovirus Disease

The purpose of the study was to investigate potential associations between tumour necrosis factor (TNF), soluble TNF receptors (sTNF-Rs), immunoglobulin (Ig)G subclasses and development of cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease amongst human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 patients. We enrolled HIV-1 patients with CD4 counts less than 100/μl in a prospective study and followed them over 1 year for development of CMV disease. Concentrations of TNF, sTNF-RI, sTNF-RII and IgG subclass reactivities were measured by ELISA; levels of CMV pp65 antigenaemia were determined as numbers of pp65 expressing cells/100 000 cells and were measured by staining of leucocytes; and HIV-1 RNA loads were measured by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Eighteen patients studied with CMV disease had higher levels of sTNF-RI than 18 similar patients without CMV disease. Concentrations of sTNF-RI correlated with levels of CMV antigenaemia in blood samples collected before the development of CMV disease. Patients with CMV disease had lower levels of IgG₁ reactivities to CMV than patients without CMV disease. We conclude that increased levels of sTNF-RI and decreased IgG₁ reactivities are associated with an increased risk of development of CMV disease among HIV-1 patients.     

Adenosine instead of supranormal potassium in cardioplegic solution improves cardioprotection.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether adenosine instead of supranormal potassium in cold crystalloid cardioplegia gives satisfactory cardiac arrest and improved cardioprotection. Cold crystalloid cardioplegia with adenosine, procaine and magnesium (A) was compared with standard cold crystalloid hyperkalemic cardioplegia (K). METHODS: Sixteen pigs were randomized to receive either cold K (n=8) or A (n=8), where hyperkalemia was substituted with 1.2 mM adenosine. The cold (6 degrees C) cardioplegia was given intermittently and antegradely, with an aortic cross-clamp time of 1 h. Hemodynamic data was continuously measured and pressure-volume conductance catheters were used to determine global left ventricular systolic and diastolic function. Coronary flow and O2 content differences allowed determination of left ventricular energetics. Blood samples, and left ventricular microdialysis were used to measure parameters of ischemia. Measurements were done at 1 and 2 h after cross-clamp release. RESULTS: Mean arterial pressure was reduced with 55 mmHg (standard deviation, SD: 19) in the K group versus 30 mmHg (SD: 14) in the A group 2 h after cross-clamp release (p=0.030). Left ventricular contractility expressed as slope of the preload recruitable stroke work index (Mw) was reduced to 53% (SD: 14) in the K group versus 78% (SD: 23) in the A group 2h after cross-clamp release (p=0.046). Reduction of maximum of first derivate of pressure with respect to time (dP/dtmax) was 804 mmHg/s (SD: 189) in the K group versus 538 mmHg/s (SD: 184) in the A group (p=0.033). The slope of the myocardial oxygen consumption-pressure volume area was at 2 h reperfusion increased from 1.37 (SD: 0.64) to 2.86 (SD: 1.27) in the K group, whereas no shift was detected in the A group (p=0.019). Cardiac troponin T measured in the coronary sinus 1 h after cross-clamp release was 1.25 microg/l (SD: 0.64) in the K group versus 0.73 microg/l (SD: 0.31) in the A group (p=0.046). CONCLUSION: Adenosine instead of supranormal potassium in cold crystalloid cardioplegia gives satisfactory cardiac arrest, improves post cardioplegic left ventricular systolic function and efficiency, and attenuates myocardial cell damage.     

Lung function development in the first 2 yr of life is independent of allergic diseases by 2 yr

The aim of the study was to assess if lung function at birth predicts lung function at 2 yr and secondly, if lung function development was influenced by the common phenotypes of recurrent bronchial obstruction (rBO) or atopic eczema (AE) by 2 yr. Lung function was assessed at birth (n = 802) and at 2 yr within the prospective birth cohort study 'the Environment and Childhood Asthma Study' in Oslo. The 135 children with lung function measured at birth by tidal flow volume (TFV) loops and passive respiratory mechanics, who were included in a nested case-control study were reinvestigated at 2 yr with clinical examination, TFV loops (n = 90) (mean age 26.6 (3.7 s.d.) months), skin prick test and parental interview. Children were categorized into quartiles (lower, middle two, upper) according to time to peak tidal expiratory flow/total expiratory time (t(PTEF)/t(E)) at birth as well as clinical phenotype based on the presence of rBO and/or AE (ever) by 2 yr. The observed reduction in mean t(PTEF)/t(E) from birth to 2 yr within the quartiles, were not significantly different after controlling for 'regression to the mean'. t(PTEF)/t(E) at birth correlated significantly with t(PTEF)/t(E) at 2 yr, (r = 0.475, p < 0.001). Children with both rBO and AE by 2 yr had significantly lower t(PTEF)/t(E) at 2 yr (p = 0.002) and at birth (p = 0.027), compared with children with no rBO or AE. Clinical phenotype at 2 yr did not influence the change in t(PTEF)/t(E) from birth to 2 yr. This study demonstrates a clear tracking of lung function from birth, not influenced by rBO or AE by 2 yr.     

Cluster headache: phospholipid metabolism in polymorphonuclear cells

Our group has previously reported significant changes in the incorporation of precursors into glycerophospholipids, particularly phosphatidylserine, in polymorphonuclear cells obtained from the peripheral blood of cluster headache patients, when compared with controls. The potential of these results led to further work using both the previous methodology and a modified isolation technique to obtain polymorphonuclear cells in as pure a state as possible. Neither the new results obtained using the original technique, nor the results with high purity polymorphonuclear cells from controls and cluster headache patients, confirm the marked changes in precursor uptake into glycerophospholipids originally reported.     

Quantitative changes of cerebral neocortical structure in insulin-treated long-term streptozocin-induced diabetes in rats

The brains of rats with streptozocin-induced diabetes treated with a low-dose insulin regimen (1 IU/day) were studied with morphometric techniques. After 1 yr of diabetes, brain weight decreased slightly (1350 +/- 71 vs. 1521 +/- 55 mg, 2P less than .01) as did the volume of the neocortex (498 +/- 36 vs. 567 +/- 40 mm3, 2P less than .05). A significant loss of neocortical neurons occurred (38 +/- 2 X 10(6) vs. 46 +/- 3 X 10(6), 2P less than .01), and the length of the capillary network in the neocortical tissue shortened disproportionately (405 +/- 102 vs. 631 +/- 47 m, 2P less than .01), leading to increased diffusion distance. The mechanisms underlying cerebral loss in this model are unknown, but abnormalities of the vascular supply with prolongation of the route of diffusion might play a role.     

Nimodipine treatment of subarachnoid hemorrhage

In a pilot study of 6 patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage caused by a ruptured intracranial (grade IV (Hunt and Hess) aneurysm the hemodynamics and plasma-nimodipine concentrations have been observed during a 3-week period of treatment. We found that 3 patients developed reversible hypotension during the nimodipine treatment and that the hypotension tendency could be related to the plasmanimodipine level and not to a more or less severe sensitivity to nimodipine.

Repeated measurements of blood pressure, plasma-nimodipine and regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) are necessary for the purpose of obtaining the optimum treatment and for evaluating the effect of treatment.