Sample size re-estimation for clinical trials with longitudinal negative binomial counts including time trends

In some diseases, such as multiple sclerosis, lesion counts obtained from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are used as markers of disease progression. This leads to longitudinal, and typically overdispersed, count data outcomes in clinical trials. Models for such data invariably include a number of nuisance parameters, which can be difficult to specify at the planning stage, leading to considerable uncertainty in sample size specification. Consequently, blinded sample size re-estimation procedures are used, allowing for an adjustment of the sample size within an ongoing trial by estimating relevant nuisance parameters at an interim point, without compromising trial integrity. To date, the methods available for re-estimation have required an assumption that the mean count is time-constant within patients. We propose a new modeling approach that maintains the advantages of established procedures but allows for general underlying and treatment-specific time trends in the mean response. A simulation study is conducted to assess the effectiveness of blinded sample size re-estimation methods over fixed designs. Sample sizes attained through blinded sample size re-estimation procedures are shown to maintain the desired study power without inflating the Type I error rate and the procedure is demonstrated on MRI data from a recent study in multiple sclerosis.     

Increased alpha suppression with age during involuntary memory retrieval

Recent work suggests that while voluntary episodic memory declines with age, involuntary episodic memory, which comes to mind spontaneously without intention, remains relatively intact. However, the neurophysiology underlying these differences has yet to be established. The current study used electroencephalography (EEG) to investigate voluntary and involuntary retrieval in older and younger adults. Participants first encoded sounds, half of which were paired with pictures, the other half unpaired. EEG was then recorded as they listened to the sounds, with participants in the involuntary group performing a sound localization cover task, and those in the voluntary group additionally attempting to recall the associated pictures. Participants later reported which sounds brought the paired picture to mind during the localization task. Reaction times on the localization task were slower for voluntary than involuntary retrieval and for paired than unpaired sounds, possibly reflecting increased attentional demands of voluntary retrieval and interference from reactivation of the associated pictures respectively. For the EEG analyses, young adults showed greater alpha event-related desynchronization (ERD) during voluntary than involuntary retrieval at frontal and occipital sites, while older adults showed pronounced alpha ERD regardless of intention. Additionally, older adults showed greater ERD for paired than unpaired sounds at occipital sites, likely reflecting visual reactivation of the associated pictures. Young adults did not show this alpha ERD memory effect. Taken together, these data suggest that involuntary memory is largely preserved with age, but this may be due to older adults' greater recruitment of top-down control even when demand for such control is limited.