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Forensic age estimation generally involves considerable amounts of uncertainty. Forensic age indicators such as teeth or skeleton images predict age only approximately, and this is likely to remain true even for future forensic age indicators. Thus, forensic age assessment should aim to make the best possible decisions under uncertainty. In this paper, we apply mathematical theory to make statistically optimal decisions to age assessment. Such an application is fairly straightforward assuming there is a standardized procedure for obtaining age indicator information from individuals, assuming we have data from the application of this procedure to a group of persons with known ages, and assuming the starting point for each individual is a probability distribution describing prior knowledge about the persons age. The main problem is then to obtain such a prior. Our analysis indicates that individual priors rather than a common prior for all persons may be necessary. We suggest that caseworkers, based on individual case information, may select a prior from a menu of priors. We show how information may then be collected over time to gradually increase the robustness of the decision procedure. We also show how replacing individual prior distributions for age with individual prior odds for being above an age limit cannot be recommended as a general method. Our theoretical framework is applied to data where the maturity of the distal femur and the third molar is observed using MRI. As part of this analysis we observe a weak positive conditional correlation between maturity of the two body parts.

  相似文献   
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Delayed contrast enhancement after injection of a gadolinium-chelate (Gd-chelate) is a reference imaging method to detect myocardial tissue changes. Its localization within the thickness of the myocardial wall allows differentiating various pathological processes such as myocardial infarction (MI), inflammatory myocarditis, and cardiomyopathies. The aim of the study was first to characterize benign myocarditis using quantitative delayed-enhancement imaging and then to investigate whether the measure of the extracellular volume fraction (ECV) can be used to discriminate between MI and myocarditis.In 6 patients with acute benign myocarditis (32.2 ± 13.8 year-old, subepicardial late gadolinium enhancement [LGE]) and 18 patients with MI (52.3 ± 10.9 year-old, subendocardial/transmural LGE), myocardial T1 was determined using the Modified Look-Locker Imaging (MOLLI) sequence at 3 Tesla before and after Gd-chelate injection. T1 values were compared in LGE and normal regions of the myocardium. The myocardial T1 values were normalized to the T1 of blood, and the ECV was calculated from T1 values of myocardium and blood pre- and post-Gd injection.In both myocarditis and MI, the T1 was lower in LGE regions than in normal regions of the left ventricle. T1 of LGE areas was significantly higher in myocarditis than in MI (446.8 ± 45.8 vs 360.5 ± 66.9 ms, P = 0.003) and ECV was lower in myocarditis than in MI (34.5 ± 3.3 vs 53.8 ± 13.0 %, P = 0.004).Both inflammatory process and chronic fibrosis induce LGE (subepicardial in myocarditis and subendocardial in MI). The present study demonstrates that the determination of T1 and ECV is able to differentiate the 2 histological patterns.Further investigation will indicate whether the severity of ECV changes might help refine the predictive risk of LGE in myocarditis.  相似文献   
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Background

In the emergency department, rib fractures are a common finding in patients who sustain chest trauma. Rib fractures may be a sign of significant, underlying pathology, especially in the elderly patients where rib fractures are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. To date, no studies have evaluated the ability of ultrasound to detect rib fractures using cadaver models and subsequently use this model as a teaching tool.

Objectives

The purpose of this study was to determine if it is possible to generate rib fractures on cadaver models which could be accurately identified using ultrasound.

Methods

This was a cross-sectional study performed during one session at a cadaver lab. A single hemithorax from four adult cadavers were used as models. Single rib fractures on each of rib five through eight were created. Four subjects, blinded to the normal versus fractured ribs, were asked to identify the presence of a fracture on each rib.

Results

A total of 8 of 16 potential ribs had fractured induced by study staff. Mean accuracy was 55% for all subjects. The overall sensitivity and specificity for detecting rib fractures was 50% (CI: 31.89–68.11) and 59.38% (CI: 35.69–73.55) respectively. The overall PPV and NPV was 55.17% and 54.29% respectively.

Conclusions

In this pilot study, subjects were not able to detect induced rib fractures using ultrasound on cadaver models. The use of this model as a teaching tool in the detection of rib fractures requires further investigation.  相似文献   
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