Bayesian consensus clustering for multivariate longitudinal data

In clinical and epidemiological studies, there is a growing interest in studying the heterogeneity among patients based on longitudinal characteristics to identify subtypes of the study population. Compared to clustering a single longitudinal marker, simultaneously clustering multiple longitudinal markers allow additional information to be incorporated into the clustering process, which reveals co-existing longitudinal patterns and generates deeper biological insight. In the current study, we propose a Bayesian consensus clustering (BCC) model for multivariate longitudinal data. Instead of arriving at a single overall clustering, the proposed model allows each marker to follow marker-specific local clustering and these local clusterings are aggregated to find a global (consensus) clustering. To estimate the posterior distribution of model parameters, a Gibbs sampling algorithm is proposed. We apply our proposed model to the primary biliary cirrhosis study to identify patient subtypes that may be associated with their prognosis. We also perform simulation studies to compare the clustering performance between the proposed model and existing models under several scenarios. The results demonstrate that the proposed BCC model serves as a useful tool for clustering multivariate longitudinal data.     

Higher Preimplantation Opioid Doses Associated With Long‐Term Spinal Cord Stimulation Failure in 211 Patients With Failed Back Surgery Syndrome

ObjectiveSpinal cord stimulation (SCS) is an effective treatment in failed back surgery syndrome (FBSS). We studied the effect of preimplantation opioid use on SCS outcome and the effect of SCS on opioid use during a two-year follow-up period.Materials and methodsThe study cohort included 211 consecutive FBSS patients who underwent an SCS trial from January 1997 to March 2014. Participants were divided into groups, which were as follows: 1) SCS trial only (n = 47), 2) successful SCS (implanted and in use throughout the two-year follow-up period, n = 131), and 3) unsuccessful SCS (implanted but later explanted or revised due to inadequate pain relief, n = 29). Patients who underwent explantation for other reasons (n = 4) were excluded. Opioid purchase data from January 1995 to March 2016 were retrieved from national registries.ResultsHigher preimplantation opioid doses associated with unsuccessful SCS (ROC: AUC = 0.66, p = 0.009), with 35 morphine milligram equivalents (MME)/day as the optimal cutoff value. All opioids were discontinued in 23% of patients with successful SCS, but in none of the patients with unsuccessful SCS (p = 0.004). Strong opioids were discontinued in 39% of patients with successful SCS, but in none of the patients with unsuccessful SCS (p = 0.04). Mean opioid dose escalated from 18 ± 4 MME/day to 36 ± 6 MME/day with successful SCS and from 22 ± 8 MME/day to 82 ± 21 MME/day with unsuccessful SCS (p < 0.001).ConclusionsHigher preimplantation opioid doses were associated with SCS failure, suggesting the need for opioid tapering before implantation. With continuous SCS therapy and no explantation or revision due to inadequate pain relief, 39% of FBSS patients discontinued strong opioids, and 23% discontinued all opioids. This indicates that SCS should be considered before detrimental dose escalation.     

疏血通脉汤联合傍针刺对中风后肩手综合征患者肢体痉挛、血液流变学及活动能力的影响

目的:探讨疏血通脉汤联合傍针刺治疗中风后肩手综合征(shoulder-hand syndrome after stroke,SHSAS)的临床疗效,并观察其对患者上肢肢体痉挛程度、血液流变学以及上肢活动能力的影响。方法:110例痰瘀阻络型SHSAS患者按照随机数字表法分为对照组与联合组,每组55例。两组患者均给予神经内科常规药物和肢体功能康复训练治疗。对照组联合傍针刺法治疗,联合组在对照组治疗基础上给予疏血通脉汤。两组患者均以4周为1个疗程,治疗1个疗程。记录比较两组患者治疗前后上肢肢体痉挛程度(Ashworth)、上肢活动能力(FMA)、肩手综合征量表(shoulder hand syndrome scale,SHSS)、视觉模拟评分(visual simulation scoring,VAS)、中医证候评分,高切全血黏度、低切全血黏度、血浆黏度和血小板聚集率等血液流变学指标,并比较治疗效果。结果:联合组有效率为96.36%,对照组有效率为83.64%,两组患者有效率比较,差异有统计学意义(P0.05)。治疗后,联合组高切全血黏度、低切全血黏度、血浆黏度与血小板聚集率水平均低于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P0.05);联合组Ashworth评分低于对照组、上肢FMA评分高于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P0.05);联合组SHSS评分和中医证候评分均低于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P0.05);联合组VAS评分低于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P0.05)。结论:疏血通脉汤联合傍针刺治疗SHSAS患者疗效显著,能有效改善患者血液流变学,缓解疼痛程度和上肢痉挛,提高上肢活动能力。     

论当前疾病预防控制体系面临的主要问题

对当前的疾病预防控制体系和机构面临的体系不健全、政府投入不充分、事业发展不平衡、人才缺失和能力不足、缺乏系统的理论指导、体系的碎片化严重、与社会经济发展的战略衔接不力、机构内部内生动力和活力不足以及体系治理能力不足等问题做了讨论分析,以期进一步分析在健康中国战略和事业单位机构改革等宏观环境变化所带来的机遇以及疾控体系的发展策略和具体措施,促进疾病预防控制事业在改革中谋发展。     

Direct insertion of an ultra‐slim upper endoscope for cholangioscopy in patients undergoing choledochoduodenostomy

Direct peroral cholangioscopy (POC) using an ultra‐slim upper endoscope is one modality of POC for intraductal endoscopic evaluation and treatment of the bile duct. Choledochoduodenostomy (CDS) is one modality of biliary bypass surgery that provides a new route to the bile duct. We carried out direct POC using an ultra‐slim upper endoscope without the use of accessories in 10 patients (four sump syndromes, three bile duct strictures and three intrahepatic duct stones) previously undergoing surgical CDS. Direct POC was successful in all patients. The use of an intraductal balloon catheter was required in one patient for advancement of the endoscope into the bile duct. Distal bile ducts with sump syndromes were cleared using baskets and water irrigation under direct POC. Cholangiocarcinoma was diagnosed in one patient with hilar bile duct stricture after cholangioscopic evaluation and a targeting forceps biopsy under direct POC. Intrahepatic duct stones were successfully extracted after intraductal fragmentation under direct POC. Oozing bleeding occurred during intraductal lithotripsy but stopped spontaneously. Direct POC using an ultra‐slim upper endoscope without the assistance of accessories can easily be carried out in patients undergoing CDS.