Preventing heart disease: is treating the high risk sufficient?

Monte Carlo simulation was used to assess the effects of several intervention strategies on coronary heart disease mortality rates in a Finnish and a North American cohort. Lowering total serum cholesterol by 4%, smoking by 15%, and diastolic blood pressure by 3% for the whole cohort would be expected to reduce the incidence of non-fatal myocardial infarction by at least 13% and coronary heart disease deaths by at least 18%. Lowering serum cholesterol by 34%, diastolic blood pressure to 90 mmHg, and reducing smoking by 20% in the subset of the population with all three risk factors in the highest quartile would result in a 6-8% reduction in non-fatal myocardial infarction and a 2-9% reduction in deaths from coronary heart disease in these cohorts. These data demonstrate that in populations with a relatively high incidence of heart disease, treating the entire population will produce larger effects than focusing only on high-risk populations.     

Network analytic methods for epidemiological risk assessment

The authors measure the efficacy of three methods for predicting the time to infection for susceptible individuals in a population undergoing an HIV epidemic. The methods differ in whether they require detailed information of the contact network and whether they require knowledge of the initial source of infection. Efficacy is evaluated using simulations for 20 different contact patterns. Only the risk score that uses both kinds of information accounts for more than 15 per cent of individual variability. The efficacy of this score ranges from 10 per cent in very unstructured populations to 60 per cent for spatially localized contact networks. This improved performance may be explained by the larger fraction of the total variability not due to the disease dynamics. When all variables are dichotomized, the two poorer methods produce odds ratios between 1.4 and 2.3. The odds ratio for the risk score with full information ranges from 2.5 to 17. Risk assessment protocols and intervention programmes are encouraged to assess contact patterns and detect sources of infection.     

Ausfallhonorar wegen Nichterscheinens zu einem Exklusiv-Termin

Abstrakt 1. Nimmt ein Patient einen ihm von seinem (Zahn-)Arzt einger?umten Exklusiv-Termin nicht wahr, obwohl er auf dessen Eigenschaft ausdrücklich hingewiesen wurde, so hat er dem (Zahn-)Arzt den Behandlungsausfall abzüglich eines angemessenen Eigenanteils des (Zahn-)Arztes zu ersetzen. 2. Die Ersatzpflicht tritt auch dann ein, wenn der Patient den Termin nicht in der in dem Behandlungsvertrag vorgesehenen Frist absagt. Eine hierfür seitens des (Zahn-)Arztes bestimmte Frist von zwei Tagen vor Behandlungsbeginn stellt sich für den Patienten grunds?tzlich auch nicht als unangemessene Benachteiligung i.S. des § 307 BGB dar. 3. Ein Anspruch des Arztes entf?llt auch bei nur mündlicher Vereinbarung nicht unter dem Gesichtspunkt des § 4 Abs. 5b BMV-Z, denn diese Vorschrift ist teleologisch dahin zu reduzieren, dass nur zahn?rztliche Honoraransprüche aus erfolgten Behandlungen schriftlich vereinbart werden müssen. Soweit es jedoch um einen vertraglichen Anspruch wegen einer Leistungsst?rung geht, vermag das Schriftformerfordernis des § 4 Abs. 5b BMV-Z grunds?tzlich nicht einzugreifen. (Leits?tze des Bearbeiters)     

Role of IL-2 in rat fetal thymocyte development

Early during rat thymus ontogeny, an important proportion of thymocytes expresses IL-2R and contains IL-2 mRNA. To investigate the role of the IL-2-IL-2R complex in rat T cell maturation, we supplied either recombinant rat IL-2 or blocking anti-CD25 mAb to rat fetal thymus organ cultures (FTOC) under several experimental conditions. The IL-2 treatment initially stimulated the growth of thymocytes and, as a result, induced T cell differentiation, but the continuous addition of IL-2 to rat FTOC, as well as the anti-CD25 administration, resulted in cell number decrease and inhibition of thymocyte maturation. These results indicate that immature rat thymocytes bear functional high- affinity IL-2R and that IL-2 promotes T cell differentiation as a consequence of its capacity to stimulate cell proliferation. Modifications in TCR alpha beta repertoire and increased numbers of NKR- P1+ cells, largely NK cells, were also observed in IL-2-treated FTOC. Furthermore, IL-2-responsiveness of different thymocyte subsets changed throughout thymic ontogeny. Immature CD4-CD8-cells responded to IL-2 in two stages, early in thymus development and around birth, in correlation with the maturation of two distinct waves of thymic cell progenitors. Mature CD8+ thymocytes maximally responded to IL-2 around birth, supporting a role for IL-2 in the increased proliferation of mature thymocytes observed in vivo in the perinatal period. Taken together, these findings support a role for IL-2 in rat T cell development.      

Using serum cholesterol to identify high risk and stimulate behavior change: will it work?

If the measurement of serum cholesterol is to be used to identify a sub-population at high risk of subsequent disease and to stimulate behavior change in this group to lower serum cholesterol, the test must be able to both discriminate and motivate the group. The ability of the test to motivate has been documented in a randomized trial. This paper therefore tests, in a cohort of United States men ages 40-59 at entry, the ability of serum cholesterol to discriminate between individuals who would and would not die from coronary heart disease. While risk of death increased with increasing serum cholesterol, the values for men who developed coronary heart disease overlapped the values of the men who did not develop the disease. Overall test accuracy declined from 92% correctly classified when 5% of the population was defined as "at high risk" to 55% when 50% of the population was defined as "at high risk". On a receiver operating curve, defining 5% of the men as "high risk" yielded a false positive rate of 5% and a true positive rate of 8%. Increasing the proportion of men defined as "at high risk" to 50% increased the true positive rate to 75% but also increased the false positive rate to over 50%. Monte Carlo simulation demonstrated that lowering mean serum cholesterol 0.78 mmol/l in the entire population would lower deaths from coronary heart disease by 28%. The same effect could be achieved by lowering the serum cholesterol of all people in the top 20% of the distribution to 4.66 mmol/l.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

Serum concentrations of oestradiol-17beta, progesterone, relaxin and chorionic gonadotrophin during blastocyst implantation in natural pregnancy cycle and in embryo transfer cycle in the rhesus monkey

The present study was undertaken to assess the temporal association between the profiles of serum concentrations of oestradiol-17beta, progesterone, chorionic gonadotrophin (CG) and relaxin in pregnancies established naturally, and after embryo transfer, as well as in failed pregnancies in rhesus monkeys. In naturally mated cycles (group 1) a conception rate of 75% was obtained. In group 1, the mean day of CG detection in serum was 11.5 +/- 1.9 day post-ovulation, and for relaxin, 9.0 +/- 2.5 day post-ovulation. In group 2, embryo transfer to synchronous, non-mated surrogate recipients was performed; seven embryo transfer cycles yielded three pregnancies which were allowed to continue to term and normal infants were delivered. In embryo transfer cycles the mean day of CG detection was 14.8 +/- 1.8 day post- ovulation, and for relaxin, 11.4 +/- 2.6 day post-ovulation. A delay of about 3 days was observed in the appearance in circulation of CG (P < 0.05) and also of relaxin (P < 0.05) between natural mated and embryo transfer conception cycles. Significant differences (P < 0.05 for progesterone and P < 0.03 for oestradiol) were obtained for the areas under the curves for progesterone and oestradiol between days 12 and 16 in conception cycles compared with failed pregnancies. These data provide the first observation of the normal hormonal signals associated with maternal recognition of transferred embryos during the peri- implantation period, and suggest that the use of such an experimental primate embryo transfer model may help to elucidate components of maternal and embryonic signal-response mechanisms during embryo implantation.      

A rapid microagglutination test for the diagnosis of Legionella pneumophila (serogroup 1) infection

A rapid microagglutination test has been developed which can be performed in 30 minutes. Ninety-seven percent of 96 patients diagnosed as having Legionella pneumophila (serogroup 1) infection by indirect immunofluorescence were also detected by the rapid microagglutination test.