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Forensic age estimation generally involves considerable amounts of uncertainty. Forensic age indicators such as teeth or skeleton images predict age only approximately, and this is likely to remain true even for future forensic age indicators. Thus, forensic age assessment should aim to make the best possible decisions under uncertainty. In this paper, we apply mathematical theory to make statistically optimal decisions to age assessment. Such an application is fairly straightforward assuming there is a standardized procedure for obtaining age indicator information from individuals, assuming we have data from the application of this procedure to a group of persons with known ages, and assuming the starting point for each individual is a probability distribution describing prior knowledge about the persons age. The main problem is then to obtain such a prior. Our analysis indicates that individual priors rather than a common prior for all persons may be necessary. We suggest that caseworkers, based on individual case information, may select a prior from a menu of priors. We show how information may then be collected over time to gradually increase the robustness of the decision procedure. We also show how replacing individual prior distributions for age with individual prior odds for being above an age limit cannot be recommended as a general method. Our theoretical framework is applied to data where the maturity of the distal femur and the third molar is observed using MRI. As part of this analysis we observe a weak positive conditional correlation between maturity of the two body parts.

  相似文献   
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Delayed contrast enhancement after injection of a gadolinium-chelate (Gd-chelate) is a reference imaging method to detect myocardial tissue changes. Its localization within the thickness of the myocardial wall allows differentiating various pathological processes such as myocardial infarction (MI), inflammatory myocarditis, and cardiomyopathies. The aim of the study was first to characterize benign myocarditis using quantitative delayed-enhancement imaging and then to investigate whether the measure of the extracellular volume fraction (ECV) can be used to discriminate between MI and myocarditis.In 6 patients with acute benign myocarditis (32.2 ± 13.8 year-old, subepicardial late gadolinium enhancement [LGE]) and 18 patients with MI (52.3 ± 10.9 year-old, subendocardial/transmural LGE), myocardial T1 was determined using the Modified Look-Locker Imaging (MOLLI) sequence at 3 Tesla before and after Gd-chelate injection. T1 values were compared in LGE and normal regions of the myocardium. The myocardial T1 values were normalized to the T1 of blood, and the ECV was calculated from T1 values of myocardium and blood pre- and post-Gd injection.In both myocarditis and MI, the T1 was lower in LGE regions than in normal regions of the left ventricle. T1 of LGE areas was significantly higher in myocarditis than in MI (446.8 ± 45.8 vs 360.5 ± 66.9 ms, P = 0.003) and ECV was lower in myocarditis than in MI (34.5 ± 3.3 vs 53.8 ± 13.0 %, P = 0.004).Both inflammatory process and chronic fibrosis induce LGE (subepicardial in myocarditis and subendocardial in MI). The present study demonstrates that the determination of T1 and ECV is able to differentiate the 2 histological patterns.Further investigation will indicate whether the severity of ECV changes might help refine the predictive risk of LGE in myocarditis.  相似文献   
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Introduction

In the phase II/III KEYNOTE-010 study (ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01905657), pembrolizumab significantly prolonged overall survival over docetaxel in patients with previously treated, programmed death ligand 1–expressing (tumor proportion score ≥ 1%), advanced NSCLC. Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) results are reported here.

Methods

Patients were randomized 1:1:1 to pembrolizumab 2 or 10 mg/kg every 3 weeks or docetaxel 75 mg/m2 every 3 weeks. HRQoL was assessed using European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) Quality of Life Questionnaire (QLC) Core 30 (C30), EORTC QLQ–Lung Cancer 13 (LC13), and EuroQoL-5D. Key analyses included mean baseline-to-week-12 change in global health status (GHS)/quality of life (QoL) score, functioning and symptom domains, and time to deterioration in a QLQ-LC13 composite endpoint of cough, dyspnea, and chest pain.

Results

Patient reported outcomes compliance was high across all three instruments. Pembrolizumab was associated with better QLQ-C30 GHS/QoL scores from baseline to 12 weeks than docetaxel, regardless of pembrolizumab dose or tumor proportion score status (not significant). Compared with docetaxel, fewer pembrolizumab-treated patients had “deteriorated” status and more had “improved” status in GHS/QoL. Nominally significant improvement was reported in many EORTC symptom domains with pembrolizumab, and nominally significant worsening was reported with docetaxel. Significant prolongation in true time to deterioration for the QLQ-LC13 composite endpoint emerged for pembrolizumab 10 mg/kg compared to docetaxel (nominal two-sided p = 0.03), but not for the 2-mg/kg dose.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that HRQoL and symptoms are maintained or improved to a greater degree with pembrolizumab than with docetaxel in this NSCLC patient population.  相似文献   
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