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The authors measure the efficacy of three methods for predicting the time to infection for susceptible individuals in a population undergoing an HIV epidemic. The methods differ in whether they require detailed information of the contact network and whether they require knowledge of the initial source of infection. Efficacy is evaluated using simulations for 20 different contact patterns. Only the risk score that uses both kinds of information accounts for more than 15 per cent of individual variability. The efficacy of this score ranges from 10 per cent in very unstructured populations to 60 per cent for spatially localized contact networks. This improved performance may be explained by the larger fraction of the total variability not due to the disease dynamics. When all variables are dichotomized, the two poorer methods produce odds ratios between 1.4 and 2.3. The odds ratio for the risk score with full information ranges from 2.5 to 17. Risk assessment protocols and intervention programmes are encouraged to assess contact patterns and detect sources of infection.  相似文献   
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Thirty-five patients hospitalized for recent angiographically documented arterial occlusion in the legs (27 femoropopliteal arteries and eight grafts) benefited from local fibrinolytic therapy delivered at the site of the occlusion with a 4- or 5-F catheter. This therapy combined a continuous urokinase (UK) infusion of 1,000 U/kg/hour and a lysyl plasminogen (LYS-PLG) infusion of 15 microkatals every 30 minutes. Angiographically confirmed lysis was obtained in 85% of the cases. Only 3% of the patients had major and 6% had minor groin hematomas. Only two patients had concentrations of fibrinogen as low as 100 mg/dl. Intravascular infusion of UK-LYS-PLG is as effective as streptokinase. Its excellent tolerance makes it a good alternative in the treatment of acute ischemia in the lower limbs.  相似文献   
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HLA and Thyrotoxicosis (Graves' Disease) in Chinese   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
HLA locus A and B typing was performed on 86 Chinese thyrotoxicosis (Graves' Disease) patients and 238 normal Chinese subjects. The frequency of HLA-Bw46 (Sin 2) was found to be significantly higher among the patients than controls (X2= 26.15, corrected P <.003, relative risk = 3.74). The risk associated with Bw46 was reflected in the Bw46 heterozygotes. The relative risks of the joint occurrence of Bw46/B40 and Bw46/B13 were 8.74 and 5.88 respectively.  相似文献   
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Spatial-temporal regulation of bone morphogenetic protein (BMP) and Wnt activity is essential for normal cardiovascular development, and altered activity of these growth factors causes maldevelopment of the cardiac outflow tract and great arteries. In the present study, we show that SOST, a Dan family member reported to antagonize BMP and Wnt activity, is expressed within the medial vessel wall of the great arteries containing smooth muscle cells. The ascending aorta, aortic arch, brachiocephalic artery, common carotids, and pulmonary trunk were all associated with SOST expressing smooth muscle cells, while the heart itself, including the valves, and more distal arteries, that is, pulmonary arteries, subclavian arteries, and descending aorta, were negative. SOST was expressed from embryonic day 15.5 up to the neonatal period. SOST expression, however, did not correspond with inhibition of Smad-dependent BMP activity or beta-catenin-dependent Wnt activity in the great arteries. Activity of both signaling pathways was already down-regulated before induction of SOST expression.  相似文献   
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