Sample size re-estimation for clinical trials with longitudinal negative binomial counts including time trends

In some diseases, such as multiple sclerosis, lesion counts obtained from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are used as markers of disease progression. This leads to longitudinal, and typically overdispersed, count data outcomes in clinical trials. Models for such data invariably include a number of nuisance parameters, which can be difficult to specify at the planning stage, leading to considerable uncertainty in sample size specification. Consequently, blinded sample size re-estimation procedures are used, allowing for an adjustment of the sample size within an ongoing trial by estimating relevant nuisance parameters at an interim point, without compromising trial integrity. To date, the methods available for re-estimation have required an assumption that the mean count is time-constant within patients. We propose a new modeling approach that maintains the advantages of established procedures but allows for general underlying and treatment-specific time trends in the mean response. A simulation study is conducted to assess the effectiveness of blinded sample size re-estimation methods over fixed designs. Sample sizes attained through blinded sample size re-estimation procedures are shown to maintain the desired study power without inflating the Type I error rate and the procedure is demonstrated on MRI data from a recent study in multiple sclerosis.     

The Importance of Venous Return in Starling‐Like Control of Rotary Ventricular Assist Devices

Rotary ventricular assist devices (VADs) are less sensitive to preload than the healthy heart, resulting in inadequate flow regulation in response to changes in patient cardiac demand. Starling‐like physiological controllers (SLCs) have been developed to automatically regulate VAD flow based on ventricular preload. An SLC consists of a cardiac response curve (CRC) which imposes a nonlinear relationship between VAD flow and ventricular preload, and a venous return line (VRL) which determines the return path of the controller. This study investigates the importance of a physiological VRL in SLC of dual rotary blood pumps for biventricular support. Two experiments were conducted on a physical mock circulation loop (MCL); the first compared an SLC with an angled physiological VRL (SLC‐P) against an SLC with a vertical VRL (SLC‐V). The second experiment quantified the benefit of a dynamic VRL, represented by a series of specific VRLs, which could adapt to different circulatory states including changes in pulmonary (PVR) and systemic (SVR) vascular resistance versus a fixed physiological VRL which was calculated at rest. In both sets of experiments, the transient controller responses were evaluated through reductions in preload caused by the removal of fluid from the MCL. The SLC‐P produced no overshoot or oscillations following step changes in preload, whereas SLC‐V produced 0.4 L/min (12.5%) overshoot for both left and right VADs. Additionally, the SLC‐V had increased settling time and reduced controller stability as evidenced by transient controller oscillations. The transient results comparing the specific and standard VRLs demonstrated that specific VRL rise times were improved by between 1.2 and 4.7 s ( = 3.05 s), while specific VRL settling times were improved by between 2.8 and 16.1 seconds ( = 8.38 s) over the standard VRL. This suggests only a minor improvement in controller response time from a dynamic VRL compared to the fixed VRL. These results indicate that the use of a fixed physiologically representative VRL is adequate over a wide variety of physiological conditions.     

The Multimedia activity recall for children and adolescents (MARCA): development and evaluation

Background  

Self-report recall questionnaires are commonly used to measure physical activity, energy expenditure and time use in children and adolescents. However, self-report questionnaires show low to moderate validity, mainly due to inaccuracies in recalling activity in terms of duration and intensity. Aside from recall errors, inaccuracies in estimating energy expenditure from self-report questionnaires are compounded by a lack of data on the energy cost of everyday activities in children and adolescents. This article describes the development of the Multimedia Activity Recall for Children and Adolescents (MARCA), a computer-delivered use-of-time instrument designed to address both the limitations of self-report recall questionnaires in children, and the lack of energy cost data in children.