Sample size re-estimation for clinical trials with longitudinal negative binomial counts including time trends

In some diseases, such as multiple sclerosis, lesion counts obtained from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are used as markers of disease progression. This leads to longitudinal, and typically overdispersed, count data outcomes in clinical trials. Models for such data invariably include a number of nuisance parameters, which can be difficult to specify at the planning stage, leading to considerable uncertainty in sample size specification. Consequently, blinded sample size re-estimation procedures are used, allowing for an adjustment of the sample size within an ongoing trial by estimating relevant nuisance parameters at an interim point, without compromising trial integrity. To date, the methods available for re-estimation have required an assumption that the mean count is time-constant within patients. We propose a new modeling approach that maintains the advantages of established procedures but allows for general underlying and treatment-specific time trends in the mean response. A simulation study is conducted to assess the effectiveness of blinded sample size re-estimation methods over fixed designs. Sample sizes attained through blinded sample size re-estimation procedures are shown to maintain the desired study power without inflating the Type I error rate and the procedure is demonstrated on MRI data from a recent study in multiple sclerosis.     

The Multimedia activity recall for children and adolescents (MARCA): development and evaluation

Background  

Self-report recall questionnaires are commonly used to measure physical activity, energy expenditure and time use in children and adolescents. However, self-report questionnaires show low to moderate validity, mainly due to inaccuracies in recalling activity in terms of duration and intensity. Aside from recall errors, inaccuracies in estimating energy expenditure from self-report questionnaires are compounded by a lack of data on the energy cost of everyday activities in children and adolescents. This article describes the development of the Multimedia Activity Recall for Children and Adolescents (MARCA), a computer-delivered use-of-time instrument designed to address both the limitations of self-report recall questionnaires in children, and the lack of energy cost data in children.     

Validation of a simplified technique for using the POPQ pelvic organ prolapse classification system

Our objective was to determine the inter-examiner agreement of a simplified pelvic organ prolapse quantification (POPQ) exam and to assess its correlation with the standard POPQ exam. This study consists of two parts; both were preformed in a prospective, randomized, blinded fashion on women presenting with complaints attributed to pelvic organ support defects. The first study was done to determine the inter-examiner reliability of a simplified POPQ exam. The simplified POPQ exam is based on the POPQ with similar ordinal staging but with only four points measured instead of nine. Forty-eight women underwent exams by five different investigators. The order of exams was randomized and the examiners were blinded to the results of each other’s findings. The results of these two exams were compared using weighted kappa statistics. The second part of the study was done to determine the inter-system agreement between the simplified vs standard POPQ exam. A group of 49 women were examined by four different investigators: one using the simplified and the other using standard POPQ exams. The order of the exams was randomized and the examiners were blinded to the results of each other’s exam. Kendall’s tau-b statistics were used to determine the inter-system agreement. For the inter-examiner reliability of the POPQ exam, the average age was 60±13 years. The weighted kappa statistics for the inter-examiner reliability of the simplified prolapse classification system were 0.86 for the overall stage, 0.89 and 0.86 for the anterior and posterior vaginal walls, respectively, 0.82 for the apex/cuff, and 0.72 for the cervix. All demonstrate significant agreement. For the inter-system association between the simplified POPQ and standard POPQ, the average age was 61±15 year. The Kendall’s tau-b value for overall stage was 0.90, 0.83, and 0.87 for the anterior and posterior walls respectively, and 0.78 for the cuff/apex and 0.98 for the cervix. There is good inter-examiner agreement of a simplified POPQ classification system and it appears to have good inter-system association with the POPQ.IUGA Standardization of Terminology Committee members: Robert Freeman MD (chairman), Steven Swift, Eckhard Petri MD, Richard J. Scotti MD, and Peter Dwyer MD.     

Responses to tuberculin in the guinea-pig eye as a model of cell mediated immune responses in the external eye.

The clinical and histological findings in an animal model of ocular cell mediated immune responses are described. These were evoked in sensitised guinea-pigs by dropping tuberculin into the conjunctival sac or injecting it under the palpebral conjunctiva. When tuberculin was dropped into the conjunctival sac, higher doses were required to evoke a strong response than when it was injected subconjunctivally. When high doses of antigen were used for challenge, a mild response was observed in unchallenged contralateral eyes. The cellular response at low doses of tuberculin consisted predominantly of mononuclear cells. At higher doses the cellular infiltrate was more pronounced, and polymorphonuclear cells tended to predominate 24 hours after challenge, while at 48 hours mononuclear cells predominated.