PREDICT-GTN 1: Can we improve the FIGO scoring system in gestational trophoblastic neoplasia?

Gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN) patients are treated according to the eight-variable International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) scoring system, that aims to predict first-line single-agent chemotherapy resistance. FIGO is imperfect with one-third of low-risk patients developing disease resistance to first-line single-agent chemotherapy. We aimed to generate simplified models that improve upon FIGO. Logistic regression (LR) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) modelling (n = 4191) generated six models (M1-6). M1, all eight FIGO variables (scored data); M2, all eight FIGO variables (scored and raw data); M3, nonimaging variables (scored data); M4, nonimaging variables (scored and raw data); M5, imaging variables (scored data); and M6, pretreatment hCG (raw data) + imaging variables (scored data). Performance was compared to FIGO using true and false positive rates, positive and negative predictive values, diagnostic odds ratio, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, Bland-Altman calibration plots, decision curve analysis and contingency tables. M1-6 were calibrated and outperformed FIGO on true positive rate and positive predictive value. Using LR and MLP, M1, M2 and M4 generated small improvements to the ROC curve and decision curve analysis. M3, M5 and M6 matched FIGO or performed less well. Compared to FIGO, most (excluding LR M4 and MLP M5) had significant discordance in patient classification (McNemar's test P < .05); 55-112 undertreated, 46-206 overtreated. Statistical modelling yielded only small gains over FIGO performance, arising through recategorisation of treatment-resistant patients, with a significant proportion of under/overtreatment as the available data have been used a priori to allocate primary chemotherapy. Streamlining FIGO should now be the focus.     

Leveraging strong social ties among young men in Dar es Salaam: A pilot intervention of microfinance and peer leadership for HIV and gender-based violence prevention

Gender inequality is at the core of the HIV patterns that are evident in sub-Saharan Africa. Gender-based violence (GBV) and lack of economic opportunity are important structural determinants of HIV risk. We piloted a microfinance and health promotion intervention among social networks of primarily young men in Dar es Salaam. Twenty-two individuals participated in the microfinance component and 30 peer leaders were recruited and trained in the peer health leadership component. We collected and analysed observational data from trainings, monitoring data on loan repayment, and reports of peer conversations to assess the feasibility and acceptability of the intervention. Eighteen of the loan recipients (82%) paid back their loans, and of these 15 (83%) received a second, larger loan. Among the loan defaulters, one died, one had chronic health problems, and two disappeared, one of whom was imprisoned for theft. The majority of conversations reported by peer health leaders focused on condoms, sexual partner selection, and HIV testing. Few peer leaders reported conversations about GBV. We demonstrated the feasibility and acceptability of this innovative HIV and GBV prevention intervention. The lessons learned from this pilot have informed the implementation of a cluster-randomised trial of the microfinance and peer health leadership intervention.