Predicting outbreaks: a spatial risk assessment of West Nile virus in British Columbia

Background  

West Nile virus (WNv) has recently emerged as a health threat to the North American population. After the initial disease outbreak in New York City in 1999, WNv has spread widely and quickly across North America to every contiguous American state and Canadian province, with the exceptions of British Columbia (BC), Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland. In this study we develop models of mosquito population dynamics for Culex tarsalis and C. pipiens, and create a spatial risk assessment of WNv prior to its arrival in BC by creating a raster-based mosquito abundance model using basic geographic and temperature data. Among the parameters included in the model are spatial factors determined from the locations of BC Centre for Disease Control mosquito traps (e.g., distance of the trap from the closest wetland or lake), while other parameters were obtained from the literature. Factors not considered in the current assessment but which could influence the results are also discussed.     

Mitochondrial antigens as targets of cellular and humoral auto-immunity in primary biliary cirrhosis

Several factors point toward an auto-immune pathogenesis for primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC), mostly based on the presence of serum auto-antibodies to mitochondrial antigens (AMAs) and autoreactive T cells (both helper and cytotoxic). Interestingly, epitopes recognized by AMA and T-cell clones are located within overlapping areas of the antigens. Moreover, a role for an imbalance in cytokine pattern and for natural-killer lymphocytes has also been proposed. Despite several experimental reports, no clear evidence is available regarding the interaction of these factors leading to bile duct destruction. This article reviews the current reports regarding the auto-immune reaction against mitochondrial auto-antigens in PBC.     

Genes and (auto)immunity in primary biliary cirrhosis

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is a chronic autoimmune cholestatic liver disease most commonly encountered in postmenopausal women; it is characterized by high-titer serum autoantibodies to mitochondrial antigens, elevated serum IgM, progressive destruction of intrahepatic bile ducts, and ultimately liver cirrhosis and failure. The cytopathic mechanisms leading to the selective destruction of intrahepatic cholangiocytes are still largely unknown. The current theory on the pathogenesis of PBC indicated that environmental factors might trigger autoimmunity in genetically susceptible individuals. In fact, genetic predisposition is critical to disease onset and progression, yet peculiar among autoimmune diseases, as indicated by the lack of a strong association with major histocompatibility complex haplotypes. Further, the recently reported concordance rate among monozygotic twins strengthens the importance of genetic factors, while also indicating that additional factors, possibly infectious agents or xenobiotics, intervene to trigger the disease. In this review, the available data regarding the genetic factors associated with PBC susceptibility and progression, as well as the available evidence regarding the immunomediated pathogenesis of PBC, will be critically illustrated and discussed.     

The enigma of primary biliary cirrhosis

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is a chronic cholestatic disease characterized by a striking predominance in female patients (with most cases diagnosed between ages 40 and 60 yr) as well as serum auto-antibodies to mitochondrial antigens, elevated serum immunoglobulin M, progressive destruction of intrahepatic bile ducts, and, ultimately, liver cirrhosis and failure (1). The precise mechanisms leading to selective destruction of biliary epithelial cells lining intrahepatic bile ducts are still unknown, although numerous immunomediated pathways have been proposed. Genetic background appears to be important in determining susceptibility to the disease (2), but no clear association with alleles in the major histocompatibility complex has been identified. Molecular mimicry either by infections (3) or xenobiotics (4) has been proposed to be capable of breaking tolerance in genetically predisposed individuals, thus leading to onset of PBC. This article describes and discusses the available data regarding the immunomediated pathogenesis of PBC (with particular attention to auto-antibodies and autoreactive T-cells) and presents the recent evidence indicating a role for either xenobiotic chemicals or novel infectious agents in the induction of the disease.     

Discovery and Validation of a Urinary Exosome mRNA Signature for the Diagnosis of Human Kidney Transplant Rejection

BackgroundDeveloping a noninvasive clinical test to accurately diagnose kidney allograft rejection is critical to improve allograft outcomes. Urinary exosomes, tiny vesicles released into the urine that carry parent cells’ proteins and nucleic acids, reflect the biologic function of the parent cells within the kidney, including immune cells. Their stability in urine makes them a potentially powerful tool for liquid biopsy and a noninvasive diagnostic biomarker for kidney-transplant rejection.MethodsUsing 192 of 220 urine samples with matched biopsy samples from 175 patients who underwent a clinically indicated kidney-transplant biopsy, we isolated urinary exosomal mRNAs and developed rejection signatures on the basis of differential gene expression. We used crossvalidation to assess the performance of the signatures on multiple data subsets.ResultsAn exosomal mRNA signature discriminated between biopsy samples from patients with all-cause rejection and those with no rejection, yielding an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.87 to 0.98), which is significantly better than the current standard of care (increase in eGFR AUC of 0.57; 95% CI, 0.49 to 0.65). The exosome-based signature’s negative predictive value was 93.3% and its positive predictive value was 86.2%. Using the same approach, we identified an additional gene signature that discriminated patients with T cell–mediated rejection from those with antibody-mediated rejection (with an AUC of 0.87; 95% CI, 0.76 to 0.97). This signature’s negative predictive value was 90.6% and its positive predictive value was 77.8%.ConclusionsOur findings show that mRNA signatures derived from urinary exosomes represent a powerful and noninvasive tool to screen for kidney allograft rejection. This finding has the potential to assist clinicians in therapeutic decision making.     

Impact of acute rejection therapy on infections and malignancies in renal transplant recipients

BACKGROUND: Infections and malignancies are important causes of mortality and morbidity in renal allograft recipients. Their risk increases with increasing immunosuppression. METHODS: In an attempt to quantitate the increase in the risk of these complications in association with antirejection therapy, we reviewed the records of all renal allograft recipients of our center transplanted during the cyclosporin era. We sub-divided the patients into three groups based on acute rejection episodes during the first 6 months posttransplant, and the treatment for acute rejection: those who did not develop AR--group 1 (n=168); those who had one or more episodes of acute rejection and were treated with high dose corticosteroids --group 2 (n=169); those who in addition to corticosteroids required cytolytics (OKT3) and/or other drugs--group 3 (n=141). RESULTS: 52% patients in group 1, 71% patients in group 2 and 86% patients in group 3 had one or more episodes of infection during the first 6 months posttransplantation. Relative risk for group 2 and 3 were 1.56 (P=0.0002) and 2.98 (P<0.00001), respectively. Infection/patient rates at 6 months were 0.67, 1.23, and 2.79 in groups 1, 2, and 3 respectively. Groups 1 and 2 had a similar number of cases with squamous and basal cell carcinoma, however, there were few cases with these malignancies in group 3. No case of lymphoma was seen in group 1; there were four cases in group 2 and nine in group 3. There was no significant difference in patient survival in group 1 and 2, however, patients in group 3 had a reduced patient survival (1 vs. 3 P<0.001, 2 vs. 3 P=0.067). Graft survival was best in group 1 and worst in group 3 (1 vs. 2 P<0.05; 1 vs. 3 P<0.00001; 2 vs. 3 P<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: In renal transplant recipients the risk of infections and lymphoma increases with increasing immunosuppression and hence mortality and morbidity associated with it. When adding a potent immunosuppressive agent to rescue a kidney one needs to consider the serious and at times fatal side effects given the modest beneficial effect on long-term outcome.     

The Correlation Between the New Rigiscan Plus Software and the Final Diagnosis in the Evaluation of Erectile Dysfunction

Purpose

The computer generated recordings for 2 nights in 40 patients studied with the RigiScan^† device were reevaluated using the new RigiScan Plus software to test its value in improving the discrimination between psychogenic and organic erectile dysfunction.

Materials and Methods

Each man was evaluated for erectile dysfunction with a detailed medical and sexual history, physical examination, biothesiometry, plethysmography, 2 nights of ambulatory RigiScan monitoring and a psychological evaluation that usually included a private interview with the sexual partner. At the conclusion of evaluation each patient was broadly classified as having organic or psychogenic erectile dysfunction. The RigiScan reports were initially independently analyzed without the investigator's knowledge of the final diagnosis by determining the single best erectile event, with a minimal cutoff value of 60 percent erection for 5 minutes as necessary to be considered normal and the sum of measurements from the 2 nights. The original reading and final diagnosis were correlated. At this point the data were processed with the new RigiScan Plus software using 2 new measurements: 1) rigidity activity units and 2) tumescence activity units at the base and tip of the penis, and the results were correlated with the final diagnosis.

Results

Evaluation of the single best event again showed that tip rigidity was the best single predictor if the diagnostic criteria were modified to 70 percent tip rigidity for 5 minutes with an estimate of correct classification of 92.5 percent. Nearly the same accuracy was obtained by base single event rigidity, tip rigidity and base tumescence activity units (each 90 percent). The summary analysis of all erectile events during the 2 nights of evaluation that had a low correlation with the final diagnosis using the original software showed that the best overall predictor of final diagnosis was tip tumescence activity units (92.5 percent), followed by base rigidity and tumescence activity units (each 90 percent).

Conclusions

The RigiScan Plus software introduced 4 new parameters that facilitate interpretation of the RigiScan data. The new software did not improve the correlation with the final diagnosis compared to the subjective single best event analysis but added new objective parameters, measured and displayed by the software, that facilitate use of the data by the physician.