Postoperative nomogram for disease-specific survival after an R0 resection for gastric carcinoma.

PURPOSE: Few published studies have addressed individual patient risk after R0 resection for gastric cancer. We developed and internally validated a nomogram that combines these factors to predict the probability of 5-year gastric cancer-specific survival on the basis of 1,039 patients treated at a single institution. METHODS: Nomogram predictor variables included age, sex, primary site (distal one-third, middle one-third, gastroesophageal junction, and proximal one-third), Lauren histotype (diffuse, intestinal, mixed), number of positive lymph nodes resected, number of negative lymph nodes resected, and depth of invasion. Death as a result of gastric cancer was the predicted end point. The concordance index was used as an accuracy measure, with bootstrapping to correct for optimistic bias. Calibration plots were constructed. RESULTS: Gastric cancer-specific survival at 5 years was 50%. A nomogram was constructed on the basis of a Cox regression model. The bootstrap-corrected concordance index was 0.80. When compared with the predictive ability of American Joint Committee on Cancer stage, the nomogram discrimination was superior (P <.001). Nomogram calibration appeared to be excellent. CONCLUSION: A nomogram was developed to predict 5-year disease-specific survival after R0 resection for gastric cancer. This tool should be useful for patient counseling, follow-up scheduling, and clinical trial eligibility determination.     

Postoperative nomogram predicting the 10-year probability of prostate cancer recurrence after radical prostatectomy.

PURPOSE: A postoperative nomogram for prostate cancer recurrence after radical prostatectomy (RP) has been independently validated as accurate and discriminating. We have updated the nomogram by extending the predictions to 10 years after RP and have enabled the nomogram predictions to be adjusted for the disease-free interval that a patient has maintained after RP. METHODS: Cox regression analysis was used to model the clinical information for 1,881 patients who underwent RP for clinically-localized prostate cancer by two high-volume surgeons. The model was externally validated separately on two independent cohorts of 1,782 patients and 1,357 patients, respectively. Disease progression was defined as a rising prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, clinical progression, radiotherapy more than 12 months postoperatively, or initiation of systemic therapy. RESULTS: The 10-year progression-free probability for the modeling set was 79% (95% CI, 75% to 82%). Significant variables in the multivariable model included PSA (P = .002), primary (P < .0001) and secondary Gleason grade (P = .0006), extracapsular extension (P < .0001), positive surgical margins (P = .028), seminal vesicle invasion (P < .0001), lymph node involvement (P = .030), treatment year (P = .008), and adjuvant radiotherapy (P = .046). The concordance index of the nomogram when applied to the independent validation sets was 0.81 and 0.79. CONCLUSION: We have developed and validated as a robust predictive model an enhanced postoperative nomogram for prostate cancer recurrence after RP. Unique to predictive models, the nomogram predictions can be adjusted for the disease-free interval that a patient has achieved after RP.     

Machine learning for survival analysis: a case study on recurrence of prostate cancer

Machine learning techniques have recently received considerable attention, especially when used for the construction of prediction models from data. Despite their potential advantages over standard statistical methods, like their ability to model non-linear relationships and construct symbolic and interpretable models, their applications to survival analysis are at best rare, primarily because of the difficulty to appropriately handle censored data. In this paper we propose a schema that enables the use of classification methods--including machine learning classifiers--for survival analysis. To appropriately consider the follow-up time and censoring, we propose a technique that, for the patients for which the event did not occur and have short follow-up times, estimates their probability of event and assigns them a distribution of outcome accordingly. Since most machine learning techniques do not deal with outcome distributions, the schema is implemented using weighted examples. To show the utility of the proposed technique, we investigate a particular problem of building prognostic models for prostate cancer recurrence, where the sole prediction of the probability of event (and not its probability dependency on time) is of interest. A case study on preoperative and postoperative prostate cancer recurrence prediction shows that by incorporating this weighting technique the machine learning tools stand beside modern statistical methods and may, by inducing symbolic recurrence models, provide further insight to relationships within the modeled data.     

Hand Surgery in Different Countries: Hand Surgery in Saudi Arabia

Hand surgery is a unique field that incorporates multiple specialties, aiming to provide the patient with a best possible functional and aesthetic results. Hand surgeons deal with different pathologies that require skills in several aspects of surgery. The field of hand surgery has evolved significantly over the past decades across the globe. This specialty has also been evolving in Saudi Arabia over the past 25 years. Some of the services offered to patients include specialized centers for brachial plexus, peripheral nerve, and pediatric hand surgery as well as centers for work-related hand injuries. There has also been significant contribution to the hand surgery literature from the hand surgeons working in Saudi Arabia, with hundreds of papers published in journals pertaining to hand surgery, orthopedic surgery, and plastic surgery, as well as the publication of several novel mutations causing congenital hand defects in journals concerned with genetics. The recent approval of a hand and microsurgery fellowship program in Saudi Arabia will also help boost this field in the country and the region.     

Efficacy and tolerability of anti-asthma herbal medicine intervention in adult patients with moderate-severe allergic asthma

BACKGROUND: Chinese herbal medicine has a long history of human use. A novel herbal formula, anti-asthma herbal medicine intervention (ASHMI), has been shown to be an effective therapy in a murine model of allergic asthma. OBJECTIVE: This study was undertaken to compare the efficacy, safety, and immunomodulatory effects of ASHMI treatment in patients with moderate-severe, persistent asthma with prednisone therapy. METHODS: In a double-blind trial, 91 subjects underwent randomization. Forty-five subjects received oral ASHMI capsules and prednisone placebo tablets (ASHMI group) and 46 subjects received oral prednisone tablets and ASHMI placebo capsules (prednisone group) for 4 weeks. Spirometry measurements; symptom scores; side effects; and serum cortisol, cytokine, and IgE levels were evaluated before and after treatment. RESULTS: Posttreatment lung function was significantly improved in both groups as shown by increased FEV(1) and peak expiratory flow findings (P<.001). The improvement was slightly but significantly greater in the prednisone group (P<.05). Clinical symptom scores, use of beta(2)-bronchodilators, and serum IgE levels were reduced significantly, and to a similar degree in both groups (P<.001). T(H)2 cytokine levels were significantly reduced in both treated groups (P<.001) and were lower in the prednisone-treated group (P<.05). Serum IFN-gamma and cortisol levels were significantly decreased in the prednisone group (P<.001) but significantly increased in the ASHMI group (P<.001). No severe side effects were observed in either group. CONCLUSION: Anti-asthma herbal medicine intervention appears to be a safe and effective alternative medicine for treating asthma. In contrast with prednisone, ASHMI had no adverse effect on adrenal function and had a beneficial effect on T(H)1 and T(H)2 balance.     

Race is not independently associated with a positive prostate biopsy in men suspected of having prostate cancer

OBJECTIVES: To examine whether race is associated with the prostate biopsy result after controlling for other clinical factors in men undergoing ultrasound-guided prostate biopsy to evaluate an elevated serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) or an abnormal digital rectal examination (DRE), or both. METHODS: We reviewed the records of all men undergoing transrectal ultrasound-guided prostate biopsy at our facilities from January 1990 through March 1998. This included 1056 white men and 874 black men. Patient age, serum PSA, indication for prostate biopsy, and race were examined for association with the biopsy result. RESULTS: Of the 1 930 black and white men who underwent prostate biopsy, 639 (33%) had cancer, including 355 (41%) of 874 black men and 284 (27%) of 1056 white men. Serum PSA, abnormal DRE, and age were independent predictors of a prostate biopsy being positive for cancer. Race was not an independent predictor of cancer being identified in the prostate biopsy. CONCLUSIONS: After controlling for PSA, DRE, and age, black men were not at an increased risk of a positive prostate biopsy relative to white men. Our data do not support the need to consider race when estimating the probability that a man has prostate cancer.     

Factors predicting recovery of erections after radical prostatectomy

PURPOSE: Because preservation of functioning penile erections is a major concern for many patients considering treatment for localized prostate cancer, we analyzed various factors determined before and after radical retropubic prostatectomy to identify those significantly associated with recovery of erectile function. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Our prospective database of patients undergoing pelvic lymphadenectomy and radical retropubic prostatectomy was used to determine factors predictive of erection recovery after radical prostatectomy. The study included 314 consecutive men with prostate cancer treated with radical retropubic prostatectomy between November 1993 and December 1996. Preoperative potency satisfactory for intercourse and degree of neurovascular bundle preservation during the operation were documented. RESULTS: Patient age, preoperative potency status and extent of neurovascular bundle preservation but not pathological stage were predictive of potency recovery after radical prostatectomy. At 3 years after the operation 76% of men younger than age 60 years with full erections preoperatively who had bilateral neurovascular bundle preservation would be expected to regain erections sufficient for intercourse. Compared to the younger men, those 60 to 65 years old were only 56% (95% confidence interval [CI] 37 to 84) and those older than 65 years were 47% (95% CI 30 to 73) as likely to recover potency. Patients with recently diminished erections were only 63% (95% CI 38 to 100) as likely to recover potency as men with full erections preoperatively, and those with partial erections were only 47% (95% CI 23 to 96) as likely to recover potency. Resection of 1 neurovascular bundle reduced the chance of recovery to 25% (95% CI 10 to 61) compared to preserving both nerves. CONCLUSIONS: Knowledge of preoperative erectile function and patient age before the operation and the degree of neurovascular bundle preservation afterward may aid in patient counseling regarding potency recovery after radical prostatectomy.     

Validation of Partin tables for predicting pathological stage of clinically localized prostate cancer

PURPOSE: The accurate prediction of pathological stage of prostate cancer using preoperative factors is a critical aspect of treatment. In 1997 Partin et al published tables predicting pathological stage using clinical stage, Gleason score and prostate specific antigen (PSA). We tested the validity of the Partin tables. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From 1990 to 1996 inclusively 5,780 patients underwent bilateral pelvic lymphadenectomy and radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer at the Mayo Clinic. However, only 2,475 of these patients met all inclusion criteria of no preoperative treatment, known biopsy Gleason score, available preoperative PSA done either before biopsy or more than 28 days after biopsy and clinical stage T1, T2 or T3a. Among the 2,475 patients 15 had positive lymph nodes and planned prostatectomy was abandoned. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve area, observed and predicted Partin rates of each pathological stage, and positive and negative predictive values were used to compare the Mayo study to the Partin tables. RESULTS: The distribution of pathological stage was organ confined in 67% of Mayo cases versus 48% in the Partin study, extracapsular without seminal vesicle or node involvement in 18% versus 40%, seminal vesicle involvement without nodes in 9% versus 7% and were positive nodes in 6% versus 5%. Using the predicted probabilities of Partin et al the ROC curve area for predicted node positive disease was 0.84 for Mayo cases compared to an estimated 0. 82 in the Partin series. The ROC curve area for predicting organ confined cancer was 0.76 for the Mayo Clinic compared to an estimated 0.73 for the Partin series. The observed rates of node positive disease were similar to those predicted (Partin) based on clinical stage, PSA and Gleason score. For organ confined disease Mayo rates were consistently higher than those predicted from the Partin series using a cut point of 0.50 or greater. Positive and negative predictive values were 0.83 and 0.49 versus 0.63 and 0.70 for the Mayo Clinic and Partin series. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides strong evidence that sensitivity and specificity of the Partin tables for external clinical sites are similar to what was reported.     

Achieving optimal outcomes after radical prostatectomy.

PURPOSE: The most favorable outcome that can be achieved after radical prostatectomy is complete tumor resection without recurrence and full recovery of continence and potency. Risks of erectile dysfunction, incontinence, and disease recurrence are well described, but in isolation, do not adequately inform patients of the possibility of becoming cancer-free while at the same time returning to their preoperative functional state. We sought to determine the frequency of optimal outcomes after radical prostatectomy and the time to such outcomes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients who underwent radical prostatectomy performed at a tertiary referral center between July 1998 and July 2003 for clinical stage T1 to T3 prostate cancer were identified. Patients were excluded if they were incontinent or impotent preoperatively, or if they had received radiotherapy or neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy previously. Six hundred forty-seven patients were analyzed for time to recovery of full continence and potency without cancer recurrence after surgery. Optimal outcome probability was calculated with a Markov state transition model to simulate clinical outcomes in the first 4 years following radical prostatectomy. RESULTS: Mean patient age was 58 years, and mean pretreatment prostate-specific antigen was 6.9 ng/mL. Cancer-free status with full continence and potency was achieved in 30% of men at 12 months, 42% at 24 months, 47% at 36 months, and 53% at 48 months postoperatively. CONCLUSION: Optimal outcomes after radical prostatectomy can be achieved in a small majority of cases. Time to full recovery is primarily dictated by recovery of erectile function. This information is helpful for patients interested in their chances of returning to their preoperative functional state.