Sample size re-estimation for clinical trials with longitudinal negative binomial counts including time trends

In some diseases, such as multiple sclerosis, lesion counts obtained from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are used as markers of disease progression. This leads to longitudinal, and typically overdispersed, count data outcomes in clinical trials. Models for such data invariably include a number of nuisance parameters, which can be difficult to specify at the planning stage, leading to considerable uncertainty in sample size specification. Consequently, blinded sample size re-estimation procedures are used, allowing for an adjustment of the sample size within an ongoing trial by estimating relevant nuisance parameters at an interim point, without compromising trial integrity. To date, the methods available for re-estimation have required an assumption that the mean count is time-constant within patients. We propose a new modeling approach that maintains the advantages of established procedures but allows for general underlying and treatment-specific time trends in the mean response. A simulation study is conducted to assess the effectiveness of blinded sample size re-estimation methods over fixed designs. Sample sizes attained through blinded sample size re-estimation procedures are shown to maintain the desired study power without inflating the Type I error rate and the procedure is demonstrated on MRI data from a recent study in multiple sclerosis.     

The Multimedia activity recall for children and adolescents (MARCA): development and evaluation

Background  

Self-report recall questionnaires are commonly used to measure physical activity, energy expenditure and time use in children and adolescents. However, self-report questionnaires show low to moderate validity, mainly due to inaccuracies in recalling activity in terms of duration and intensity. Aside from recall errors, inaccuracies in estimating energy expenditure from self-report questionnaires are compounded by a lack of data on the energy cost of everyday activities in children and adolescents. This article describes the development of the Multimedia Activity Recall for Children and Adolescents (MARCA), a computer-delivered use-of-time instrument designed to address both the limitations of self-report recall questionnaires in children, and the lack of energy cost data in children.     

Association between PCBs and lower embryonic weight in black-crowned night herons in San Francisco Bay

Reproductive problems, including congenital malformations, reduced hatching success, and decreased survival of hatchlings, have been observed in colonial-nesting water birds at the San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge (SFBNWR). Twenty-four black-crowned night heron (Nycticorax nycticorax) eggs were collected from SFBNWR in 1983. Twelve of these were collected from separate nests when late-stage embryos were pipping, and an additional egg was randomly collected from each nest for organochlorine analysis. Overt anomalies and skeletal defects were not apparent. Embryonic weights (with partially absorbed yolk sacs removed) were 15% lower (p less than 0.05) in SFBNWR embryos compared to control embryos from the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center (PWRC). Crown-rump length and femur length were shorter for SFBNWR embryos. The geometric mean polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentration in SFBNWR eggs was 4.1 ppm wet weight, with a range of 0.8-52.0 ppm. A negative correlation (r = -0.61; p less than 0.05) existed between embryonic weight and log-transformed PCB residues in whole eggs collected from the same nest at SFBNWR, suggesting a possible impact of PCBs on embryonic growth. A correlation with embryonic weight did not occur for DDE [1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl) ethylene] residues. Liver microsomal aryl hydrocarbon hydroxylase activity was neither significantly elevated nor correlated with PCB, DDE, or PCB plus DDE log-transformed residues. It is unknown whether the apparent association between PCBs and lower weight is persistent through hatching.