Nonproportional hazards and unobserved heterogeneity in clustered survival data: When can we tell the difference?

Multivariate survival data are frequently encountered in biomedical applications in the form of clustered failures (or recurrent events data). A popular way of analyzing such data is by using shared frailty models, which assume that the proportional hazards assumption holds conditional on an unobserved cluster-specific random effect. Such models are often incorporated in more complicated joint models in survival analysis. If the random effect distribution has finite expectation, then the conditional proportional hazards assumption does not carry over to the marginal models. It has been shown that, for univariate data, this makes it impossible to distinguish between the presence of unobserved heterogeneity (eg, due to missing covariates) and marginal nonproportional hazards. We show that time-dependent covariate effects may falsely appear as evidence in favor of a frailty model also in the case of clustered failures or recurrent events data, when the cluster size or number of recurrent events is small. When true unobserved heterogeneity is present, the presence of nonproportional hazards leads to overestimating the frailty effect. We show that this phenomenon is somewhat mitigated as the cluster size grows. We carry out a simulation study to assess the behavior of test statistics and estimators for frailty models in such contexts. The gamma, inverse Gaussian, and positive stable shared frailty models are contrasted using a novel software implementation for estimating semiparametric shared frailty models. Two main questions are addressed in the contexts of clustered failures and recurrent events: whether covariates with a time-dependent effect may appear as indication of unobserved heterogeneity and whether the additional presence of unobserved heterogeneity can be detected in this case. Finally, the practical implications are illustrated in a real-world data analysis example.     

Is the Swiss Society for Social and Preventive Medicine what it should be? An invitation to a discussion

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Left ventricular pseudoaneurysm as a late complication of mitral annuloplasty

A 59-year-old hypertensive male, 1 year after uncomplicatedmitral annuloplasty for regurgitation with MAZE procedure, witha history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and repeatedpulmonary     

Long-term course of epilepsy in a large cohort of intellectually disabled patients.

This study was designed to describe the course of epilepsy (in terms of seizure frequency) and to assess the variables (antiepileptic therapy regimens and others) correlated to improvement. Seizure frequency (categories: seizure free, more than one seizure/year, monthly seizures, weekly seizures and daily seizures) and antiepileptic medication were retrospectively compared between 1992 and 2002 in a large cohort of 550 inpatients with chronic epilepsy and different degrees of intellectual disability or multiple handicaps. RESULTS: Seizure frequency decreased significantly (p<0.001). 218 of the 394 patients (55.3%) not seizure free in 1992 improved (changed into a better frequency category). The improvement rate was marginally higher in patients who had undergone a medication change (p=0.08). A high seizure frequency in 1992 (p=0.016) and older age (p=0.006), but not epilepsy syndrome or degree of intellectual disability, were predictors for improvement (stepwise logistic regression analysis). 56.4% of the improved patients were on combinations of two AEDs (17.4%, monotherapy; 20.2%, triple therapy). The most frequent therapy regimens in the improved patients were lamotrigine/valproate (48 patients), carbamazepine/phenobarbital (21) and carbamazepine only (19). Lamotrigine/valproate was effective in all kinds of epileptic syndromes. Most patients on lamotrigine had serum concentrations above 10microg/ml, approximately one half had dosages above 200mg/day. The rate of seizure freedom increased from 28.4 to 37.6%. The 84% of the patients seizure free in 1992 remained seizure free. Predictors for seizure freedom in 2002 were higher age (stepwise logistic regression, p<0.0005) and seizure freedom in 1992 (p<0.0005). CONCLUSIONS: Substantial improvement can be achieved even in intellectually disabled patients with chronic epilepsy. Although the rate of seizure freedom is reduced in comparison with a non-ID population, once seizure freedom has been achieved it is most likely to continue. For a majority of this patient population, monotherapy may not be sufficient. Lamotrigine/valproate appears to be a major therapeutic innovation.     

Die Bedeutung der Resection tuberculös erkrankter Gelenke für die Generalisation der Tuberculose

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Hassallsche K?rperchen in der Tonsilla palatina des Hundes

Zusammenfassung Es wurde über das Vorkommen derHassallschen Körperchen in der Tonsilla palatina der Hunde berichtetMit 3 Textabbildungen.     

Zur Lehre von der visceralen Syphilis

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Bericht des Blatterarztes Dr. Gercon Sailer über die Aufnahme in das Augsburger Elatterhaus von 1556

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Immunological and respiratory reactions in workers exposed to organic dusts

The relationship of skin reactivity and serum immunoglobulin E (IgE) levels to the prevalence of chronic respiratory symptoms and to ventilatory capacity is examined in workers exposed to different organic aerosols. The results from group of control workers similarly tested are also presented. Workers exposed to occupational allergens had positive skin tests more frequently than did controls, except for soy bean workers. Workers with positive skin tests to occupational allergens had a higher prevalence of almost all symptoms than those with negative skin tests although the differences did not always reach statistical significance. Workers with positive skin reactions in general had significantly higher serum IgE levels than did workers with negative skin reactions. There were across-shift reductions of ventilatory capacity in all groups of exposed workers, varying for forced vital capacity from 1.7% to 13.3%, for forced expiratory volume from 0.4%–21.9%, for maximum flow rates at 50% from 1.5% to 16.1% and for maximum flow rates at the last 25% of control vital capacity from 0% to 24.9%. There was, however, no correlation between acute and chronic lung function changes and skin reactivity or IgE values. Our data suggest that although exposure to organic aerosols may be associated with frequent immunologic reactions, these findings do not predict objective respiratory impairment.The research was supported in part by grant no. JBP 733 from the National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Md., USA, and by grant no. RO1 OHO-2593-04 from the National Institutes of Occupational Safety and Health, Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta, Ga., USA