Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Brazilian primary care: Diagnostic competence and case-finding.

AIMS: The developing world is particularly at risk of an increasing health burden due to an increased prevalence of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) secondary to increasing tobacco consumption. However, research is scarce. The objectives of this study were to assess the current competence for diagnosing COPD in primary care in a resource-limited setting in Brazil, and to develop a local patient profile for case-finding. METHODS: 34 general practitioners (GPs) in five areas of northern Brazil recruited adult patients with principal complaints of cough and/or shortness of breath who then had spirometry (n = 142). RESULTS: For the dichotomous variable 'COPD' the degree of agreement between GP diagnosis (n = 64, 18.3%) and spirometric outcome (n = 36, 25.4%) was poor, with Kappa = 0.055 (SE 0.087) and DOR = 1.35. False-positive and false-negative diagnosis proportions were 19.8% and 75%, respectively. Independent risk factors were 'smoking history of more than five pack years' and 'presence of both dyspnoea and cough'. It requires the testing of 2.2 smokers with more than five pack years to detect one patient at risk. CONCLUSIONS: COPD is a common yet underdiagnosed disease in Brazilian primary care. Spirometry improves diagnostic competence and case-finding substantially. If applied in a pre-selected high-risk population, we believe spirometry can be a cost-effective diagnostic tool for case-finding in the resource-limited setting. This study provides important baseline information for effective guideline implementation.     

Cause-specific mortality: understanding uncertain tips of the disease iceberg.

STUDY OBJECTIVE--To determine the extent to which individual diseases, when recorded as being present shortly before death, were certified as causes of death. DESIGN--Retrospective cohort study in which the "subjects" were computerised linked records. SETTING--Six districts in the Oxford Regional Health Authority area (covering a population of 1.9 million people). SUBJECTS--Linked abstracts of hospital records and death certificates for people who died within four weeks and, for some diseases, within one year of hospital admission. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--The percentage of people with each disease for whom the disease was recorded as the underlying cause of death, was recorded elsewhere on the death certificate, or was not certified as a cause of death at all. RESULTS--Three broad patterns of certification are distinguished. Firstly, there were diseases that were usually recorded on death certificates when death occurred within four weeks of hospital care of them. Examples included lung cancer (on 91% of such death certificates), breast cancer (92%), leukaemia and lymphoma (90%), anterior horn cell disease (89%), multiple sclerosis (89%), myocardial infarction (90%), stroke (93%), aortic aneurysm (87%), and spina bifida (89%). These diseases were also usually certified as the underlying cause of death. Secondly, there were diseases which, when present within four weeks of death, were commonly recorded on death certificates but often not as the underlying cause of death. Examples included tuberculosis (on 76% of such certificates; underlying cause on 54%), thyroid disease (49%; 21%), diabetes mellitus (69%; 30%) and hypertension (43%; 22%). Thirdly, there were conditions which, when death occurred within four weeks of their treatment, were recorded on the death certificate in a minority of cases only. Examples of these included fractured neck of femur (on 25% of such certificates), asthma (37%), and anaemia (22%). Not surprisingly, there was "convergence" in certification practice towards the common cardiovascular and respiratory causes of death. There was also evidence that conditions regarded as avoidable causes of death may not have been certified when present at death in some patients. CONCLUSION--When uses are made of mortality statistics alone, it is important to know which category of certification practice the disease of interest is likely to be in. Linkage between morbidity and mortality records, and multiple cause analysis of mortality, would considerably improve the ability to quantify mortality associated with individual diseases.     

Some epidemiological observations on medicinal and non-medicinal poisoning in preschool children.

STUDY OBJECTIVE--The aim was to identify and compare rates of admission to hospital of preschool children for medicinal and non-medicinal poisoning in a defined population. DESIGN--The study was an analysis of computerised abstracts of hospital inpatient records for poisoning. SETTING--Six districts in southern England covered by the Oxford record linkage study. SUBJECTS--The subjects were children under six years of age residing in the six districts from 1975 to 1986. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS--6152 children, drawn from an average annual resident population of 164,000 children in 1975-1986, experienced 6562 hospital admissions for poisoning before six years; 3702 (56.4%) were attributed to medicinal and 2860 (43.6%) to non-medicinal agents. Of the latter, 646 (9.8% of the total) were recorded under the International classification of diseases code, described as "noxious food" (almost exclusively plant material). Average annual admission rates in children under six were 1.88 per 1000 for medicinal agents and 1.45 for non-medicinal substances. Analgesics accounted for 28.1% of the admissions for medicinal poisoning; berries and mushrooms for 97.4% of the plant materials; and corrosive aromatics, acids and alkalis for 22.0% of the other non-medicinals. Admission rates were higher in males than females in each category of poisoning. In children aged 1-4 years there was a significant decrease in admission rates between 1975 and 1986, averaging per annum 5.8% for medicinal poisoning, 6.9% for non-medicinal poisoning (excluding plant material), and 12.8% for plant material poisoning. Significant seasonal variation was found for each class of poisoning. CONCLUSIONS--Admission rates for medicinal and non-medicinal poisoning in preschool children declined between 1975 and 1986. The decline could reflect a change in thresholds for admission although, if so, this would be against the general trend in paediatric medical admissions, which is upward. An alternative explanation is a decline in the incidence of poisoning.     

Perceived future career prospects in general practice: quantitative results from questionnaire surveys of UK doctors

BackgroundThere are more studies of current job satisfaction among GPs than of their views about their future career prospects, although both are relevant to commitment to careers in general practice.AimTo report on the views of GPs compared with clinicians in other specialties about their future career prospects.MethodQuestionnaires were sent to the doctors at different times after graduation, ranging from 3 to 24 years.ResultsBased on the latest survey of each graduation year of the 20 940 responders, 66.2% of GPs and 74.2% of hospital doctors were positive about their prospects and 9.7% and 8.3%, respectively, were negative. However, with increasing time since graduation and increasing levels of seniority, GPs became less positive about their prospects; by contrast, over time, surgeons became more positive. Three to 5 years after graduation, 86.3% of those training in general practice were positive about their prospects compared with 52.9% of surgical trainees: in surveys conducted 12–24 years after graduation, 60.2% of GPs and 76.6% of surgeons were positive about their prospects.ConclusionGPs held broadly positive views of their career prospects, as did other doctors. However, there was an increase in negativity with increasing time since graduation that was not seen in hospital doctors. Research into the causes of this negativity and policy measures to ameliorate it would contribute to the continued commitment of GPs and may help to reduce attrition.     

Peptic ulcer, cimetidine, and motor neurone disease--a record linkage study.

A previous cohort study suggested that there might be an association between use of cimetidine and motor neurone disease. The Oxford Record Linkage Study was used to explore this hypothesis. In the analysis the presence of a peptic ulcer in patients after 1976 was taken as a proxy for cimetidine (and ranitidine) use. The past history of 540 patients with motor neurone disease in this period was compared with that of 1370 patients with multiple sclerosis (neurological controls) and over 240,000 control patients with a variety of other conditions. Among those with motor neurone disease, five had been previously admitted to hospital with peptic ulcer in comparison with an expected number of 7.4 (morbidity ratio 0.68, 95% confidence interval: 0.2 to 1.6). The corresponding figures for those with multiple sclerosis were 12 and 9.7 respectively (morbidity ratio 1.24, 95% confidence interval: 0.6 to 2.2). This study provides some evidence against the possibility that cimetidine (and ranitidine) are related to motor neurone disease.     

Trends in mortality after hospital admission for liver cirrhosis in an English population from 1968 to 1999

BACKGROUND: Population based mortality rates from liver cirrhosis, and alcohol consumption, have increased sharply in Britain in the past 35 years. Little is known about the long term trends over time in mortality rates after hospital admission for liver cirrhosis. AIMS: To analyse time trends in mortality in the year after admission for liver cirrhosis from 1968 to 1999. SUBJECTS: A total of 8192 people who were admitted to hospital in a defined population of Southern England. METHODS: Analysis of hospital discharge statistics linked to death certificate data. The main outcome measures were case fatality rates (CFRs) and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs). RESULTS: At 30 days after admission, CFR was 15.9% and the SMR was 93 (86 in men and 102 in women, compared with 1 in the general population). At one year, the overall CFR was 33.6% and SMR was 16.3. There was no improvement from 1968 to 1999 in mortality rates. SMRs were highest for alcoholic cirrhosis of the liver (27.4 at one year) but lower for biliary cirrhosis (11.4) and chronic hepatitis (10.0). Mortality from most of the main causes of death, including accidents and suicides, was increased. CONCLUSIONS: The high mortality rates after hospital admission, and the fact that they have not fallen in the past 30 years, show that liver cirrhosis remains a disease with a very poor prognosis. Increased mortality from accidents, suicides, and mental disorders, particularly among those with alcoholic cirrhoses, indicates that prognosis is influenced by behavioural as well as by physical pathology.