PREDICT-GTN 1: Can we improve the FIGO scoring system in gestational trophoblastic neoplasia?

Gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN) patients are treated according to the eight-variable International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) scoring system, that aims to predict first-line single-agent chemotherapy resistance. FIGO is imperfect with one-third of low-risk patients developing disease resistance to first-line single-agent chemotherapy. We aimed to generate simplified models that improve upon FIGO. Logistic regression (LR) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) modelling (n = 4191) generated six models (M1-6). M1, all eight FIGO variables (scored data); M2, all eight FIGO variables (scored and raw data); M3, nonimaging variables (scored data); M4, nonimaging variables (scored and raw data); M5, imaging variables (scored data); and M6, pretreatment hCG (raw data) + imaging variables (scored data). Performance was compared to FIGO using true and false positive rates, positive and negative predictive values, diagnostic odds ratio, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, Bland-Altman calibration plots, decision curve analysis and contingency tables. M1-6 were calibrated and outperformed FIGO on true positive rate and positive predictive value. Using LR and MLP, M1, M2 and M4 generated small improvements to the ROC curve and decision curve analysis. M3, M5 and M6 matched FIGO or performed less well. Compared to FIGO, most (excluding LR M4 and MLP M5) had significant discordance in patient classification (McNemar's test P < .05); 55-112 undertreated, 46-206 overtreated. Statistical modelling yielded only small gains over FIGO performance, arising through recategorisation of treatment-resistant patients, with a significant proportion of under/overtreatment as the available data have been used a priori to allocate primary chemotherapy. Streamlining FIGO should now be the focus.     

Bone Microarchitecture Phenotypes Identified in Older Adults Are Associated With Different Levels of Osteoporotic Fracture Risk

Prevalence of osteoporosis is more than 50% in older adults, yet current clinical methods for diagnosis that rely on areal bone mineral density (aBMD) fail to detect most individuals who have a fragility fracture. Bone fragility can manifest in different forms, and a “one-size-fits-all” approach to diagnosis and management of osteoporosis may not be suitable. High-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQCT) provides additive information by capturing information about volumetric density and microarchitecture, but interpretation is challenging because of the complex interactions between the numerous properties measured. In this study, we propose that there are common combinations of bone properties, referred to as phenotypes, that are predisposed to different levels of fracture risk. Using HR-pQCT data from a multinational cohort (n = 5873, 71% female) between 40 and 96 years of age, we employed fuzzy c-means clustering, an unsupervised machine-learning method, to identify phenotypes of bone microarchitecture. Three clusters were identified, and using partial correlation analysis of HR-pQCT parameters, we characterized the clusters as low density, low volume, and healthy bone phenotypes. Most males were associated with the healthy bone phenotype, whereas females were more often associated with the low volume or low density bone phenotypes. Each phenotype had a significantly different cumulative hazard of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and of any incident osteoporotic fracture (p < 0.05). After adjustment for covariates (cohort, sex, and age), the low density followed by the low volume phenotype had the highest association with MOF (hazard ratio = 2.96 and 2.35, respectively), and significant associations were maintained when additionally adjusted for femoral neck aBMD (hazard ratio = 1.69 and 1.90, respectively). Further, within each phenotype, different imaging biomarkers of fracture were identified. These findings suggest that osteoporotic fracture risk is associated with bone phenotypes that capture key features of bone deterioration that are not distinguishable by aBMD. © 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).     

A Tool to Assess Patient and Surrogate Knowledge About the POLST (Physician Orders for Life-Sustaining Treatment) Program

ContextIt is especially important that patients are well informed when making high-stakes, preference-sensitive decisions like those on the Physician Orders for Life-Sustaining Treatment (POLST) form. However, there is currently no way to easily evaluate whether patients understand key concepts when making these important decisions.ObjectivesTo develop a POLST knowledge survey.MethodsExpert (n = 62) ratings of key POLST facts were used to select items for a POLST knowledge survey. The survey was administered to nursing facility residents (n = 97) and surrogate decision-makers (n = 112). A subset (n = 135) were re-administered the survey after a standardized advance care planning discussion to assess the scale's responsiveness to change.ResultsThe 19-item survey demonstrated adequate reliability (α = 0.72.). Residents' scores (x = 11.4, standard deviation 3.3) were significantly lower than surrogate scores (x = 14.7, standard deviation 2.5) (P < 0.001). Scores for both groups increased significantly after administration of a standardized advance care planning discussion (P < 0.001). Although being a surrogate, age, race, education, cognitive functioning, and health literacy were significantly associated with higher POLST Knowledge Survey scores in univariate analyses, only being a surrogate (P < 0.001) and being white (P = 0.028) remained significantly associated with higher scores in multivariate analyses.ConclusionThe 19-item POLST Knowledge Survey demonstrated adequate reliability and responsiveness to change. Findings suggest the survey could be used to identify knowledge deficits and provide targeted education to ensure adequate understanding of key clinical decisions when completing POLST.