Forensic age estimation generally involves considerable amounts of uncertainty. Forensic age indicators such as teeth or skeleton images predict age only approximately, and this is likely to remain true even for future forensic age indicators. Thus, forensic age assessment should aim to make the best possible decisions under uncertainty. In this paper, we apply mathematical theory to make statistically optimal decisions to age assessment. Such an application is fairly straightforward assuming there is a standardized procedure for obtaining age indicator information from individuals, assuming we have data from the application of this procedure to a group of persons with known ages, and assuming the starting point for each individual is a probability distribution describing prior knowledge about the persons age. The main problem is then to obtain such a prior. Our analysis indicates that individual priors rather than a common prior for all persons may be necessary. We suggest that caseworkers, based on individual case information, may select a prior from a menu of priors. We show how information may then be collected over time to gradually increase the robustness of the decision procedure. We also show how replacing individual prior distributions for age with individual prior odds for being above an age limit cannot be recommended as a general method. Our theoretical framework is applied to data where the maturity of the distal femur and the third molar is observed using MRI. As part of this analysis we observe a weak positive conditional correlation between maturity of the two body parts.
Clinical Oral Investigations - The aims of this study are to assess different saliva substitutes for their efficacy to lubricate the oral cavity, and to relate this oral lubrication to the ability... 相似文献
The recognition that neurogenesis does not stop with adolescence has spun off research towards the reduction of brain disorders by enhancing brain regeneration. Adult neurogenesis is one of the tougher problems of developmental biology as it requires the generation of complex intracellular and pericellular anatomies, amidst the danger of neuroinflammation. We here review how a multitude of regulatory pathways optimized for early neurogenesis has to be revamped into a new choreography of time dependencies. Distinct pathways need to be regulated, ranging from neural growth factor induced differentiation to mitochondrial bioenergetics, reactive oxygen metabolism, and apoptosis. Requiring much Gibbs energy consumption, brain depends on aerobic energy metabolism, hence on mitochondrial activity. Mitochondrial fission and fusion, movement and perhaps even mitoptosis, thereby come into play. All these network processes are interlinked and involve a plethora of molecules. We recommend a deep thinking approach to adult neurobiology. 相似文献
Peacekeeping missions involve experiences that may impact the mental health of participating soldiers. However, research on the long-term mental health consequences of peacekeeping is sparse. The present study aimed to find the prevalence of mental health problems (MHPs), possible MHP predictors, and associations between predictors and MHPs in Norwegian peacekeepers 18–38 years after deployment to a United Nations peacekeeping mission. We used data from a cross-sectional, postdeployment survey of Norwegian peacekeepers who served in Lebanon between 1978 and 1998 (N = 10,605). Participants were assessed for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD); anxiety; depression; insomnia; alcohol misuse; drug misuse; and exposure to pre-, peri-, and postdeployment stressors. Logistic regressions were executed to explore key variables associated with MHPs. Total MHP prevalence was 15.1%, 95% CI [14.4, 15.8]. The estimates for specific disorders were 0.1% for drug misuse, 3.4% for alcohol misuse, 4.0% for depression, 6.2% for PTSD, 6.4% for anxiety, and 9.3% for insomnia. Postdeployment stressors, OR = 1.91, 95% CI [1.79, 2.04]; employment status, OR = 1.41, 95% CI [1.33, 1.48]; and traumatic exposure during deployment, OR = 1.11, 95% CI [1.09, 1.12], were positively related to PTSD, χ2(17, N = 8,568) = 1,791.299, p < .001. Similar patterns were found for the other MHPs. Considering that most participants (84.9%) reported low symptom levels, our findings challenge the widespread public perception that most peacekeepers have MHPs. Moreover, our results indicate that future peacekeepers should be prepared for challenges they may face not only during deployment but also in the years following their homecoming. 相似文献