PREDICT-GTN 1: Can we improve the FIGO scoring system in gestational trophoblastic neoplasia?

Gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN) patients are treated according to the eight-variable International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) scoring system, that aims to predict first-line single-agent chemotherapy resistance. FIGO is imperfect with one-third of low-risk patients developing disease resistance to first-line single-agent chemotherapy. We aimed to generate simplified models that improve upon FIGO. Logistic regression (LR) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) modelling (n = 4191) generated six models (M1-6). M1, all eight FIGO variables (scored data); M2, all eight FIGO variables (scored and raw data); M3, nonimaging variables (scored data); M4, nonimaging variables (scored and raw data); M5, imaging variables (scored data); and M6, pretreatment hCG (raw data) + imaging variables (scored data). Performance was compared to FIGO using true and false positive rates, positive and negative predictive values, diagnostic odds ratio, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, Bland-Altman calibration plots, decision curve analysis and contingency tables. M1-6 were calibrated and outperformed FIGO on true positive rate and positive predictive value. Using LR and MLP, M1, M2 and M4 generated small improvements to the ROC curve and decision curve analysis. M3, M5 and M6 matched FIGO or performed less well. Compared to FIGO, most (excluding LR M4 and MLP M5) had significant discordance in patient classification (McNemar's test P < .05); 55-112 undertreated, 46-206 overtreated. Statistical modelling yielded only small gains over FIGO performance, arising through recategorisation of treatment-resistant patients, with a significant proportion of under/overtreatment as the available data have been used a priori to allocate primary chemotherapy. Streamlining FIGO should now be the focus.     

Effects of tamoxifen on normal breast tissue histological composition: Results from a randomised six-arm placebo-controlled trial in healthy women

Tamoxifen prevents recurrence of breast cancer and is suggested for preventive risk-reducing therapy. Tamoxifen reduces mammographic density, a proxy for therapy response, but little is known about its effects in remodelling normal breast tissue. Our study, a substudy within the double-blinded dose-determination trial KARISMA, investigated tamoxifen-specific changes in breast tissue composition and histological markers in healthy women. We included 83 healthy women randomised to 6 months daily intake of 20, 10, 5, 2.5, 1 mg of tamoxifen or placebo. The groups were combined to “no dose” (0-1 mg), “low-dose” (2.5-5 mg) or “high-dose” (10-20 mg) of tamoxifen. Ultrasound-guided biopsies were collected before and after tamoxifen exposure. In each biopsy, epithelial, stromal and adipose tissues was quantified, and expression of epithelial and stromal Ki67, oestrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) analysed. Mammographic density using STRATUS was measured at baseline and end-of-tamoxifen-exposure. We found that different doses of tamoxifen reduced mammographic density and glandular-epithelial area in premenopausal women and associated with reduced epithelium and increased adipose tissue. High-dose tamoxifen also decreased epithelial ER and PR expressions in premenopausal women. Premenopausal women with the greatest reduction in proliferation also had the greatest epithelial reduction. In postmenopausal women, high-dose tamoxifen decreased the epithelial area with no measurable density decrease. Tamoxifen at both low and high doses influences breast tissue composition and expression of histological markers in the normal breast. Our findings connect epithelial proliferation with tissue remodelling in premenopausal women and provide novel insights to understanding biological mechanisms of primary prevention with tamoxifen.     

Biomarkers on patient T cells diagnose active tuberculosis and monitor treatment response

BACKGROUND. The identification and treatment of individuals with tuberculosis (TB) is a global public health priority. Accurate diagnosis of pulmonary active TB (ATB) disease remains challenging and relies on extensive medical evaluation and detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) in the patient’s sputum. Further, the response to treatment is monitored by sputum culture conversion, which takes several weeks for results. Here, we sought to identify blood-based host biomarkers associated with ATB and hypothesized that immune activation markers on Mtb-specific CD4⁺ T cells would be associated with Mtb load in vivo and could thus provide a gauge of Mtb infection.METHODS. Using polychromatic flow cytometry, we evaluated the expression of immune activation markers on Mtb-specific CD4⁺ T cells from individuals with asymptomatic latent Mtb infection (LTBI) and ATB as well as from ATB patients undergoing anti-TB treatment.RESULTS. Frequencies of Mtb-specific IFN-γ⁺CD4⁺ T cells that expressed immune activation markers CD38 and HLA-DR as well as intracellular proliferation marker Ki-67 were substantially higher in subjects with ATB compared with those with LTBI. These markers accurately classified ATB and LTBI status, with cutoff values of 18%, 60%, and 5% for CD38⁺IFN-γ⁺, HLA-DR⁺IFN-γ⁺, and Ki-67⁺IFN-γ⁺, respectively, with 100% specificity and greater than 96% sensitivity. These markers also distinguished individuals with untreated ATB from those who had successfully completed anti-TB treatment and correlated with decreasing mycobacterial loads during treatment.CONCLUSION. We have identified host blood-based biomarkers on Mtb-specific CD4⁺ T cells that discriminate between ATB and LTBI and provide a set of tools for monitoring treatment response and cure.TRIAL REGISTRATION. Registration is not required for observational studies.FUNDING. This study was funded by Emory University, the NIH, and the Yerkes National Primate Center.