Validation of PATHFx 2.0: An open-source tool for estimating survival in patients undergoing pathologic fracture fixation

Treatment decisions in patients with metastatic bone disease rely on accurate survival estimation. We developed the original PATHFx models using expensive, proprietary software and now seek to provide a more cost-effective solution. Using open-source machine learning software to create PATHFx version 2.0, we asked whether PATHFx 2.0 could be created using open-source methods and externally validated in two unique patient populations. The training set of a well-characterized, database records of 189 patients and the bnlearn package within R Version 3.5.1 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing), was used to establish a series of Bayesian belief network models designed to predict survival at 1, 3, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. Each was externally validated in both a Scandinavian (n = 815 patients) and a Japanese (n = 261 patients) data set. Brier scores and receiver operating characteristic curves to assessed discriminatory ability. Decision curve analysis (DCA) evaluated whether models should be used clinically. DCA showed that the model should be used clinically at all time points in the Scandinavian data set. For the 1-month time point, DCA of the Japanese data set suggested to expect better outcomes assuming all patients will survive greater than 1 month. Brier scores for each curve demonstrate that the models are accurate at each time point. Statement of Clinical Significance: we successfully transitioned to PATHFx 2.0 using open-source software and externally validated it in two unique patient populations, which can be used as a cost-effective option to guide surgical decisions in patients with metastatic bone disease.     

Relationship of "bleeding on probing" and "gingival index bleeding" as clinical parameters of gingival inflammation

Abstract Bleeding on probing (BOP) and the gingival index have been used to clinically characterize the degree of gingival inflammation. It is, however, unclear to what extent these parameters correlate to each other and to probing pocket depth (PD). The purpose of this clinical study was to evaluate the association between BOP and GI bleeding (scores of 2 and 3), as well as the relationship of these variables to PD, in a group of patients presenting with naturally-occurring gingivitis. Based on screening examinations of 125 subjects with at least 20 teeth, no more than 4 sites with PD over 6 mm, a BOP frequency of 30% or greater, and no systemic condition that would influence the inflammatory response, were selected. 2 weeks after screening they were examined at 6 sites per tooth for plaque index, GI, PD and BOP. A standardized pressure sensitive probe (Florida Probe) with 20 g probing force was used for BOP and PD measurements. In this population, means of 40.9% (S.E.= 1.36) BOP sites and 35.3% (S.E, = 1.81) GI bleeding sites per patient were found. A total of 20,008 sites ranging in PD up to 5.9 mm were evaluated; however, the majority of sites (19,723, 98.6%) presented with <4 mm PD. When sites were evaluated, BOP demonstrated a positive correlation with PD, whereas GI bleeding correlated with PH. For sites characterized by the absence of BOP as well as the absence of GI bleeding (scores 0 and 1), the highest % of agreement between the 2 indices (77.7%) was found in shallow sites (0.1–2 mm). In contrast, when sites presenting with both BOP and GI bleeding were analyzed, the highest % of agreement (85,4%) was found for sites with PD >4.0 mm. In this gingivitis population group, it appears that BOP and GI bleeding evaluate distinct inflammatory1 conditions of the gingival tissues, and the relationship between the 2 clinical parameters may vary according to PD at the individual site examined.