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Background

Payers frequently rely on budget impact model (BIM) results to help determine drug coverage policy and its effect on their bottom line. It is unclear whether BIMs typically overestimate or underestimate real-world budget impact.

Objective

We examined how different modeling assumptions influenced the results of 6 BIMs from the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER).

Study Design

Retrospective analysis of pharmaceutical sales data.

Methods

From ICER reports issued before 2016, we collected estimates of 3 BIM outputs: aggregate therapy cost (ie, cost to treat the patient population with a particular therapy), therapy uptake, and price. We compared these against real-world estimates that we generated using drug sales data. We considered 2 classes of BIM estimates: those forecasting future uptake of new agents, which assumed “unmanaged uptake,” and those describing the contemporaneous market state (ie, estimates of current, managed uptake and budget impact for compounds already on the market).

Results

Differences between ICER's estimates and our own were largest for forecasted studies. Here, ICER's uptake estimates exceeded real-world estimates by factors ranging from 7.4 (sacubitril/valsartan) to 54 (hepatitis C treatments). The “unmanaged uptake” assumption (removed from ICER's approach in 2017) yields large deviations between BIM estimates and real-world consumption. Nevertheless, in some cases, ICER's BIMs that relied on current market estimates also deviated substantially from real-world sales data.

Conclusions

This study highlights challenges with forecasting budget impact. In particular, assumptions about uptake and data source selection can greatly influence the accuracy of results.  相似文献   
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BACKGROUND: Computer-assisted image analysis has been proposed for human hair growth studies. METHODS: The performances of Trichoscan, a commercially available automated system combining epiluminiscence microscopy with digital image analysis, developed for office-based hair growth measurements, have been evaluated comparatively on the same skin sites using standardized photographic equipment and calibrated processing for contrast-enhanced phototrichogram (CE-PTG) analysis. This reference method has been validated with scalp biopsies and histological examination of serial sectioning. RESULTS: Besides edge effects, hair fibres escaped the Trichoscan analysis for various reasons including, but not limited to, thickness, pigmentation, closeness and crossing. CONCLUSION: Most of these problems have been identified in the late 1980s and remain largely unsolved by the processing software that was evaluated in 2004. Therefore claims promoting the Trichoscan method for accurate hair measurements in clinical trials on scalp and body hair are not supported by the present investigation. The speed at which the analysis is performed is outweighed by the errors in signal detection. Therefore we suggest that improvements must be clearly documented before Trichoscan is established for quantified diagnostic purposes and detailed hair cycle monitoring during hair trials.  相似文献   
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双波长紫外分光光度法测定贝母中腺苷和胸苷的含量   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
将4种贝母的甲醇提取物经薄层色谱法粗分离后,直接用双波长紫外分光光度法测定其含量。结果表明,该方法线性关系好,腺苷和胸苷标准曲线的相关系数均为0.9999,同时也发现平贝、炉贝和伊贝中腺苷都占核苷总量60%以上,而浙贝中仅占约40%,提示贝母生药的抗凝血活性可能与贝母中核苷类化合物的种类和含量的差别有关。  相似文献   
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Hypoxia is related to poor prognosis because it is associated to chemo-and radioresistance. During recent years the evolution of imaging methods like PET/CT and MRI has meant the appearance of new perspectives with direct implications in radiation therapy. We discuss previous experiences in staging, planning and in the follow-up process with these techniques for measuring tumour hypoxia.  相似文献   
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Toxicity testing of sediment samples from the Rio Santiago and its main tributaries was performed using a battery of tests that included the ECHA dipstick biocide monitor, the MetPad test, the lettuce seed germination and the root elongation test, the nematode test, spot plate test, and the SOS Chromotest. Assessment was carried out on organic extracts, pore water, and direct sediment. Results of bioassays showed toxicity sources from tributaries and canals flowing into the river and areas being degraded by insults from industrial spills. © by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.  相似文献   
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Abstract Pericardial tamponade remains a diagnostic challenge to the clinician especially when the patient is well compensated hemodynamically. We report an unusual case who sought medical help 1 month after having been stabbed in his chest. An investigation revealed a perforation of the myocardium and a pericardial tamponade. The patient survived thanks to a large organized clot that plugged the perforation. The patient was exposed to increased risk due to delayed onset, recognition, and therapy of the tamponade. Most reports on this subject deal with acute pericardial tamponade. Only few cases of delayed pericardial tamponade have been reported. A review of the relevant literature and the therapeutic approaches are discussed.  相似文献   
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