Bayesian consensus clustering for multivariate longitudinal data

In clinical and epidemiological studies, there is a growing interest in studying the heterogeneity among patients based on longitudinal characteristics to identify subtypes of the study population. Compared to clustering a single longitudinal marker, simultaneously clustering multiple longitudinal markers allow additional information to be incorporated into the clustering process, which reveals co-existing longitudinal patterns and generates deeper biological insight. In the current study, we propose a Bayesian consensus clustering (BCC) model for multivariate longitudinal data. Instead of arriving at a single overall clustering, the proposed model allows each marker to follow marker-specific local clustering and these local clusterings are aggregated to find a global (consensus) clustering. To estimate the posterior distribution of model parameters, a Gibbs sampling algorithm is proposed. We apply our proposed model to the primary biliary cirrhosis study to identify patient subtypes that may be associated with their prognosis. We also perform simulation studies to compare the clustering performance between the proposed model and existing models under several scenarios. The results demonstrate that the proposed BCC model serves as a useful tool for clustering multivariate longitudinal data.     

Higher Preimplantation Opioid Doses Associated With Long‐Term Spinal Cord Stimulation Failure in 211 Patients With Failed Back Surgery Syndrome

ObjectiveSpinal cord stimulation (SCS) is an effective treatment in failed back surgery syndrome (FBSS). We studied the effect of preimplantation opioid use on SCS outcome and the effect of SCS on opioid use during a two-year follow-up period.Materials and methodsThe study cohort included 211 consecutive FBSS patients who underwent an SCS trial from January 1997 to March 2014. Participants were divided into groups, which were as follows: 1) SCS trial only (n = 47), 2) successful SCS (implanted and in use throughout the two-year follow-up period, n = 131), and 3) unsuccessful SCS (implanted but later explanted or revised due to inadequate pain relief, n = 29). Patients who underwent explantation for other reasons (n = 4) were excluded. Opioid purchase data from January 1995 to March 2016 were retrieved from national registries.ResultsHigher preimplantation opioid doses associated with unsuccessful SCS (ROC: AUC = 0.66, p = 0.009), with 35 morphine milligram equivalents (MME)/day as the optimal cutoff value. All opioids were discontinued in 23% of patients with successful SCS, but in none of the patients with unsuccessful SCS (p = 0.004). Strong opioids were discontinued in 39% of patients with successful SCS, but in none of the patients with unsuccessful SCS (p = 0.04). Mean opioid dose escalated from 18 ± 4 MME/day to 36 ± 6 MME/day with successful SCS and from 22 ± 8 MME/day to 82 ± 21 MME/day with unsuccessful SCS (p < 0.001).ConclusionsHigher preimplantation opioid doses were associated with SCS failure, suggesting the need for opioid tapering before implantation. With continuous SCS therapy and no explantation or revision due to inadequate pain relief, 39% of FBSS patients discontinued strong opioids, and 23% discontinued all opioids. This indicates that SCS should be considered before detrimental dose escalation.