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1.
Summary The predictive component of human smooth pursuit was studied by perturbing sinusoidal target motion at unpredictable instants. The disturbances consisted of either a brief period of stabilization of the target on the fovea or a replacement of the sine by a ramp displacement for half a period. To minimize the effects of a possible change of the tracking strategy by the subject the transitions were masked and only the initial part of the response to the disturbance was analyzed. After stabilization on the fovea the eye oscillation continued at the frequency of the preceding target movement for about one half-cycle, whereupon the oscillation was rapidly damped. The mean unidirectional smooth eye acceleration was 70% of the mean unidirectional target acceleration prior to the stabilization. This suggests that during pursuit of a sinusoidal target movement about 75% of the oculomotor response is generated by predictive processes. When the sine was replaced by a ramp, starting at the velocity zero-crossing, the eye accelerated away from the target for ca. 180 ms irrespective of the frequency of prior tracking. In contrast, when the ramp started at the peak velocity of the sinusoidal target motion the eye accelerated away from the target for more than a quarter period. After foveal stabilization during pursuit of a pseudorandom stimulus, the eye continued to oscillate for less than one period at approximately the highest frequency present in the stimulus. The frequency characteristics of human smooth pursuit of predictable as well as unpredictable target motion were correctly simulated by a model, which derived its predictive properties from a lead element, tuned to the current frequency of the target motion.  相似文献   
2.
Autoimmunity may be associated with acute or chronic inflammation. In order to determine whether the inflammatory marker C-reactive protein (CRP) was an indicator of inflammatory events that precede, predict, or associate with islet autoimmunity or type 1 diabetes, CRP was measured in sequential antibody-negative, seroconversion, and follow-up-positive samples from 65 prospectively studied islet autoantibody-positive children. Although changes in CRP concentrations were observed in some children, overall CRP concentrations were similar in antibody-negative samples (median, 0.21 mg/L), antibody-positive samples (median, 0.26 mg/L), and samples at seroconversion (median, 0.26 mg/L). CRP concentrations at diabetes onset (median, 0.59 mg/L) were not significantly increased over antibody-negative samples (P = 0.07). CRP concentrations did not predict diabetes development. CRP concentrations were related to age (r = 0.26; P < 0.001) and were increased in samples obtained from October to January (P < 0.001). These findings suggest that CRP concentrations are not a valuable marker of progression to type 1 diabetes and highlight the importance of correcting analyses for seasonal variations.  相似文献   
3.
The predictability of individual differences in activation processes was investigated in a multi-method laboratory-field study. Male students of physical education (N=58) were examined under various emotionally activating and physically demanding conditions (mental arithmetic, reaction time, free speech, cold pressor test, bicycle ergometer). The assessment included multi-channel recordings of pre-start phases in an athletic stadium and performance on a 1000 m run. Basal heart rate was also recorded during sleep. This multi-situational assessment was repeated after three weeks, three months, and, for most (N=42) subjects, after one year. Significant relationships exist between scores from corresponding conditions of relaxation, anticipation, and performance of physical exercise. However, with the exception of heart rate, correlation coefficients are rather small and seem to be of questionable predictive validity. A generalizability study further supports the general conclusion: To increase the practical relevance in psychophysiological investigations of stress/strain phenomena, such studies should directly assess individual differences in the criterion situations themselves.  相似文献   
4.
Anticipatory smooth pursuit before the expected appearance of a moving target can reduce the initial retinal blur caused by the 100-ms delay of visual feedback. Humans, though, can only voluntarily generate smooth velocities up to about 5°/s without a moving target. However, previous experiments have shown that repetitive brief presentations of a moving target every few seconds appear to charge an internal store, the contents of which can later be released to generate higher velocity anticipatory movements. This store’s longevity was assessed here by repetitively presenting a moving target for 500 ms at different known intervals up to 7.2 s. Target motion at 25°/s or 50°/s was tested, with presentations in alternate directions or the same direction. Anticipatory velocity, measured 100 ms after target onset, decreased with increasing interval for all target motion conditions. A decrease was still seen when accurate timing cues were given before each presentation, suggesting that the drive for anticipatory pursuit is held in a short-term store lasting a few seconds which can enhance the low velocities produced by volition alone. The results also demonstrate that high-velocity anticipatory pursuit helps to overcome the temporal delays in the system and allows target velocity to be matched at an earlier time. Received: 27 August 1997 / Accepted: 22 December 1997  相似文献   
5.
BackgroundIrrespective of the treatment method, union is the ultimate goal of any fracture treatment. However, nowadays, rather than the physician-based clinico-radiological methods, the patient-reported outcome measurements assessing their quality of life and function are gaining much popularity. This is specifically true in the part of the world where the patient needs almost complete degree of hip/knee flexion – for social, cultural, religious or occupational reason(s). The ability to squat can assess the mobility and stability of joints and thus the quality of squatting is a proxy reflection of the functional outcome after fixation of lower limb fracture. Thus, we studied to determine the inter-observer and intra-observer reliability of Radiographic Union Score for Tibia (RUST) and Squat and Smile (S & S) test in clinical photograph. We further calculated the sensitivity and specificity of S & S test in predicting healing of lower limb fracture fixed by intramedullary interlocking nail considering RUST as the gold standard.MethodsThis was a retrospective study of prospectively collected data of solid Surgical Implant Generation Network (SIGN) intramedullary interlocking nailing from a single, university-based, high volume tertiary center where 56 consecutive adults with either tibial or femoral shaft fractures fixed with a SIGN nail within one year and not requiring any surgery till minimum of eighteen-month follow-up were included. Cases without either Anterior-Posterior (AP) view and/or Lateral (Lat.) view follow-up x-ray(s) or proper S & S clinical photograph (at least 1.5-year post fixation) were excluded. The x-rays (RUST criteria) and clinical photograph (S & S grading) were scored by two independent and blinded observers each and repeated after 1 month.ResultsThe overall intra-observer reliability was from 0.773 to 0.825 and inter-observer reliability from 0.635 to 0.757 for RUST scoring which was from 0.687 to 0.785 and from 0.301 to 0.650 respectively for S & S scoring. The sensitivity and specificity of S & S in predicting fracture healing were up to 82.22% and 63.64% respectively.ConclusionThe S & S test is reliable to predict the healing of lower limb fracture fixed with an intramedullary nail. The test is more useful to determine healed fractures than to determine non-healed ones. (sensitivity being higher than specificity)  相似文献   
6.
肝硬化并发重度食管静脉曲张的临床预测与评估   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
目的 回顾性研究肝硬化重度食管静脉曲张的临床预测方法与评估。方法 收集2002年1月~2004年12月收住我院的肝硬化31例,重度食管静脉曲张者20例(64.5%),无静脉曲张者11例(35.5%),入院时行胃镜直视和腹部超声检查,并除外已行内镜下曲张静脉硬化剂或皮圈结扎治疗者。记录外周血小板计数、B超下脾脏长径及门静脉宽度、胆红素、白蛋白和凝血酶原时间等各项检查结果,并按Child-Pugh分级法对患者进行评分,相关数据进行统计分析。结果 外周血血小板数值和脾脏长径与食管重度静脉曲张之间有显著相关性(P分别为0.042和0.024),血清总胆红素值、白蛋白、凝血酶原时问、Child-Pugh值及超声下门脉宽度与食管静脉曲张程度之间则无显著相关性(P值分别为0.141、0.952、0.095、0.088和0.124);与无静脉曲张患者相比较,血小板计数〈60000个/mm^3判断食管重度静脉曲张的敏感性和特异性分别为60%和为80%,脾脏长径〉150mm判断重度静脉曲张的敏感性和特异性分别为65%和92.9%。结论 血小板计数和脾脏长径作为非侵入性方法可用于预测肝硬化患者有无重度食管静脉曲张。  相似文献   
7.
PURPOSE: To evaluate the role of 3-D US measurement of the endometrium during early IVF-pregnancy and before the appearance of gestational sac in the prediction of pregnancies outcome. METHODS: 60 pregnant women following IVF treatment were included in the study. The women underwent transvaginal 3D US measurements of endometrial volume and thickness on day 15-17 post ET. Patients were followed and classified according to pregnancy outcome into 2 further groups. The group with early pregnancy loss and the group with ongoing pregnancy. RESULTS: While no differences were observed between those who miscarried and those who did not in gestational age, endometrial thickness or volume, spontaneous early pregnancy loss was significantly higher in patients with endometrial volume <2 mL as compared to those with endometrial volume >2 mL. CONCLUSIONS: 3-D US measurement of endometrial volume of less than 2 mL during early IVF pregnancy and prior to the appearance of gestational sac is a powerful predictor of pregnancy loss.  相似文献   
8.
目的探讨趋势季节模型是否适用于细菌性痢疾(简称菌痢)的发病预测。方法利用我中心疾病监测信息系统2001-2006年鹤壁市菌痢发病资料,用趋势季节模型的方法预测2007-2009年鹤壁市各季度的菌痢发病率,观察预测发病率与实际发病率是否一致。结果用趋势季节模型的方法预测,2007年各季度预测发病率分别为0.32‰、1.55‰、4.08‰、0.96‰,实际发病率分别为0.37‰、1.31‰、3.77‰、0.94‰;2008年各季度预测发病率分别为0.29‰、1.41‰、3.96‰、0.36‰,实际发病率分别为0.44‰、0.91‰、4.04‰、0.52‰;2009年1、2、3、4季度预测发病率分别为0.26‰、1.27‰、3.31‰、0.56‰,实际发病率分别为0.17‰、1.20‰、2.67‰、0.43‰,利用趋势季节模型计算出的预测发病率与实际发病率均相接近。结论利用趋势季节模型预测我市菌痢的发病率是适用的,其它地区、其它疾病的发病只要符合趋势季节变化,均可使用该模型进行预测。  相似文献   
9.
Clinical risk factors are associated with increased probability of fracture in postmenopausal women. We sought to compare prediction models using self‐reported clinical risk factors, excluding BMD, to predict incident fracture among postmenopausal women. The GLOW study enrolled women aged 55 years or older from 723 primary‐care practices in 10 countries. The population comprised 19,586 women aged 60 years or older who were not receiving antiosteoporosis medication and were followed annually for 2 years. Self‐administered questionnaires were used to collect data on characteristics, fracture risk factors, previous fractures, and health status. The main outcome measure compares the C index for models using the WHO Fracture Risk (FRAX), the Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator (FRC), and a simple model using age and prior fracture. Over 2 years, 880 women reported incident fractures including 69 hip fractures, 468 “major fractures” (as defined by FRAX), and 583 “osteoporotic fractures” (as defined by FRC). Using baseline clinical risk factors, both FRAX and FRC showed a moderate ability to correctly order hip fracture times (C index for hip fracture 0.78 and 0.76, respectively). C indices for “major” and “osteoporotic” fractures showed lower values, at 0.61 and 0.64. Neither algorithm was better than the model based on age + fracture history alone (C index for hip fracture 0.78). In conclusion, estimation of fracture risk in an international primary‐care population of postmenopausal women can be made using clinical risk factors alone without BMD. However, more sophisticated models incorporating multiple clinical risk factors including falls were not superior to more parsimonious models in predicting future fracture in this population. © 2011 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research  相似文献   
10.
It is important for clinicians to understand which are the clinical signs, the patient characteristics and the procedures that are related with the occurrence of hypertrophic burn scars in order to carry out a possible prognostic assessment. Providing clinicians with an easy‐to‐ use tool for predicting the risk of pathological scars. A total of 703 patients with 2440 anatomical burn sites who were admitted to the Department of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, Burn Center of the Traumatological Hospital in Torino between January 1994 and May 2006 were included in the analysis. A Bayesian network (BN) model was implemented. The probability of developing a hypertrophic scar was evaluated on a number of scenarios. The error rate of the BN model was assessed internally and it was equal to 24·83%. While classical statistical method as logistic models can infer only which variables are related to the final outcome, the BN approach displays a set of relationships between the final outcome (scar type) and the explanatory covariates (patient's age and gender, burn surface area, full‐thickness burn surface area, burn anatomical area and wound‐healing time; burn treatment options such as advanced dressings, type of surgical approach, number of surgical procedures, type of skin graft, excision and coverage timing). A web‐based interface to handle the BN model was developed on the website www.pubchild.org (burns header). Clinicians who registered at the website could submit their data in order to get from the BN model the predicted probability of observing a pathological scar type.  相似文献   
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