Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture

We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision making in specific timeframes and circumstances. The case on coffee in Latin America identifies altitudinal thresholds at which incremental vs. transformative adaptation pathways are robust options. The final case uses three crop–climate simulation studies to demonstrate how uncertainty can be characterized at different time horizons to discriminate where robust adaptation options are possible. We find that impact approaches, which use predictive models, are increasingly useful over longer lead times and at higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that extreme events are important in determining predictability across a broad range of timescales. The results demonstrate the potential for robust knowledge and actions in the face of uncertainty.     

Effects of climate changes on skin diseases

Global climate is changing at an extraordinary rate. Climate change (CC) can be caused by several factors including variations in solar radiation, oceanic processes, and also human activities. The degree of this change and its impact on ecological, social, and economical systems have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing CC as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Moreover, studies based on observations and predictive models show how CC could affect human health. On the other hand, only a few studies focus on how this change may affect human skin. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, it is not surprising that cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. The current review focuses on the effects of CC on skin diseases showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence, clinical pattern and natural course of some dermatoses.     

Forest policy developments in Victoria

The changes in Victorian forestry since 1982 are described and explained in terms of cultural influences in forestry over the last 70 years. A hindsight recommendation is made that foresters should have been more conciliatory to the environmental movement in the seventies. Some views are given about the desirability of the changes and what future changes may be in store.     

GERMINATION AND EMERGENCE OF EUCALYPT SEED WHEN SOWN AT DEPTH

Eucalypts sometimes scatter their seed while the capsules are retained on the tree. At other times the capsules fall to the ground intact, and the seed spills out of them in little heaps. Several specie were sown at various depths simulating these two conditions. The most promising young plants were obtained from seedlings that emerged from a soil cover of from 0.2 to 0.3 in. All species, whether sown scattered or in heaps, could push through half an inch of soil. E. globulus emerged from a soil cover of as much as 1.5 in. when germinating in heaps. The relationship between the results obtained and observations on seed germinating in the forest are discussed.     

Epidemiology of Bluetongue in India

Bluetongue (BT) is an insectborne endemic disease in India. Although infections are observed in domestic and wild ruminants, the clinical disease and mortality are observed only in sheep, especially in the southern states of the country. The difference in disease patterns in different parts of the country could be due to varied climatic conditions, sheep population density and susceptibility of the sheep breeds to BT. Over the five decades after the first report of BT in 1964, most of the known serotypes of bluetongue virus (BTV) have been reported from India either by virus isolation or by detection of serotype‐specific antibodies. There have been no structured longitudinal studies to identify the circulating serotypes throughout the country. At least ten serotypes were isolated between 1967 and 2000 (BTV‐1–4, 6, 9, 16–18, 23). Since 2001, the All‐India Network Programme on Bluetongue and other laboratories have isolated eight different serotypes (BTV‐1–3, 9, 10, 12, 16, 21). Genetic analysis of these viruses has revealed that some of them vary substantially from reference viruses, and some show high sequence identity with modified live virus vaccines used in different parts of the world. These observations have highlighted the need to develop diagnostic capabilities, especially as BT outbreaks are still declared based on clinical signs. Although virus isolation and serotyping are the gold standards, rapid methods based on the detection of viral nucleic acid may be more suitable for India. The epidemiological investigations also have implications for vaccine design. Although only a handful serotypes may be involved in causing outbreaks every year, the combination of serotypes may change from year to year. For effective control of BT in India, it may be pertinent to introduce sentinel and vector traps systems for identification of the circulating serotypes and to evaluate herd immunity against different serotypes, so that relevant strains can be included in vaccine formulations.