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目的探索泊松分布在手足口病早期预警中的应用。方法使用杭州市2009—2011年手足口病数据建立数据库,采用移动平均位数法计算每周疾病期望发病数,用Poisson分布计算每周发生聚集性疫情的概率,如果概率小于某检验水准,则发出预警信号,通过现场流行病学调查对预警信号进行核实。结果在检验水准α=0.05的情况下,通过Poisson检验,发出预警信号44起,经核实33起预警信号出现聚集性疫情,预警信号阳性预测值为75.00%,灵敏度为94.29%,特异度为35.29%,约登指数为29.58%。比移动平均控制图法和《传染病自动预警信息系统》效能高。结论泊松分布结合移动平均位数法可作为手足口病的一种简单便捷的预警方法推广。 相似文献
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钱思源 《中国临床药理学杂志》2015,(14)
产品使用说明书是提供给医师和患者关于药物安全有效性信息最为重要的平台,也是法律文本。本文从风险控制的角度出发,阐述了说明书黑框警告的主要内容和必要性。 相似文献
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ObjectiveThe purpose of this research was to evaluate the predictive capacity of five Early Warning Scores in relation to the clinical evolution of adult patients with different types of trauma.Research MethodologyWe conducted a longitudinal, prospective, observational study, calculating the Early Warning Scores [Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS-2), VitalPAC Early Warning Score (ViEWS), Modified Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (MREMS), and Rapid Acute Physiology Score (RAPS)] upon arrival of patients to the emergency department.SettingIn total, 445 cases of traumatic injuries were included in the study.Main Outcome MeasuresThe predictive capacity was verified with the data on admission to intensive care units (ICU) and mortality at two, seven and 30 days.Results201 patients were hospitalized and 244 were discharged after being attended in the emergency department. 91 cases (20.4%) required ICU care and 4.7% of patients died (21 patients) within two days, 6.5% (29 patients) within seven days and 9.7% (43 patients) within 30 days. The highest area under the curve for predicting the need for ICU care was obtained by the National Early Warning Score 2 and the VitalPAC Early Warning Score. For predicting mortality, the Modified Rapid Emergency Medicine Score obtained the best scores for two-day mortality, seven-day mortality and 30-day mortality.ConclusionsEvery Early Warning Score analyzed in this study obtained good results in predicting adverse effects in adult patients with traumatic injuries, creating an opportunity for new clinical applications in the emergency department. 相似文献
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针对南京军区南京总医院在药事管理中存在的问题及实际需求,提出了具有系统层和功能应用层的医院药事管理信息系统架构,并在此架构下开发了具有合理用药安全审核、门诊处方点评预警干预、抗菌药物临床应用管理等6个功能模块的医院药事管理信息系统。该文详细介绍了该系统的设计要求、系统结构与功能及技术特点。实际应用表明,该药事管理信息系统可为医务和药物管理人员提供全面、详细、准确和有价值的药物使用等相关信息,有效提高了医政管理部门的监管力度及医院的诊疗质量。 相似文献
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Yasemin Tekd eker Zafer ukurova Deniz
zel Bilgi Oya Hergünsel 《Therapeutic apheresis and dialysis : official peer-reviewed journal of the International Society for Apheresis, the Japanese Society for Apheresis, the Japanese Society for Dialysis Therapy》2020,24(4):445-452
The aim of our study is to evaluate the impact of early vs. late initiation of continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), defined by clinical information system (CIS) software using an early warning algorithm based on acute kidney injury network (AKIN) stages, on survival outcome of critically ill intensive care unit (ICU) patients with acute kidney injury (AKI). Of 1144 patients (mean [SD] age: 61.3 [17.9] years, 57.7% were males) hospitalized in ICU over a 2‐year‐period from January 2016 to December 2017, a total of 272 patients who had developed AKI requiring CRRT were included in this retrospective cross‐sectional study. Data on patient demographics (age, gender), reason for ICU hospitalization, AKIN stage, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, indications for CRRT, and time of CRRT initiation with respect to AKIN early warning algorithm were retrieved from hospital records and the CIS software database. Survivorship status was assessed based on total, in‐hospital and 90‐day post‐discharge mortality rates and analyzed with respect to CRRT onset before vs. after AKIN alarm. CRRT was initiated before the AKIN alarm in 41(15.0%) patients, and after the AKIN alarm in 231(85.0%) patients involving treatment within 0–24 h of alarm in 146 (63.2%) patients and within 24–120 h of alarm in 85 (36.8%) patients. Mortality occurred in 175 (64.3%) patients involving 25 (61.0%) out of 41 patients who received CRRT before AKIN alarm and 150 (64.9%) out of 231 patients who received CRRT after AKIN alarm. Mortality rate was significantly higher in those who received CRRT 24–120 h vs. 0–24 h after the AKIN alarm (82.4% vs. 54.8%, P < 0.001). Pre‐ and post‐CRRT SOFA scores were significantly lower in patients who received CRRT 0–24 h vs. 24–120 h after the AKIN alarm (P = 0.009 and P = 0.004, respectively), while pre‐CRRT APACHE II scores were significantly lower in patients who received CRRT before vs. after the AKIN alarm (P = 0.008). In conclusion, our findings indicate the potential role of using AKIN stage‐based early warning system in guiding time to start CRRT and improved survival in critically ill patients with AKI, provided that the CRRT was initiated within the early (first 24 h) of the alarming AKIN Stage II–III events. Future well‐designed clinical trials addressing early vs. late initiation of CRRT in critical care patients with AKI are needed to find and answer to the ongoing controversy and help clinicians in refining their indications for starting CRRT. 相似文献
29.
Li Zongbin Liu Chunwei Guo Jun Shi Yajun Li Yang Wang Jinli Wang Jing Chen Yundai 《中国医学科学杂志(英文版)》2020,35(1):13-19
Objective To examine if the variations at sea level would be able to predict subsequent susceptibility to acute altitude sickness in subjects upon a rapid ascent to high altitude.Methods One hundred and six Han nationality male individuals were recruited to this research. Dynamic electrocardiogram, treadmill exercise test, echocardiography, routine blood examination and biochemical analysis were performed when subjects at sea level and entering the plateau respectively. Then multiple regression analysis was performed to construct a multiple linear regression equation using the Lake Louise Score as dependent variable to predict the risk factors at sea level related to acute mountain sickness (AMS).Results Approximately 49.05% of the individuals developed AMS. The tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (22.0±2.66 vs. 23.2±3.19 mm, t=1.998, P=0.048) was significantly lower in the AMS group at sea level, while count of eosinophil [(0.264±0.393)×109/L vs. (0.126±0.084)×109/L, t=-2.040, P=0.045], percentage of differences exceeding 50 ms between adjacent normal number of intervals (PNN50, 9.66%±5.40% vs. 6.98%±5.66%, t=-2.229, P=0.028) and heart rate variability triangle index (57.1±16.1 vs. 50.6±12.7, t=-2.271, P=0.025) were significantly higher. After acute exposure to high altitude, C-reactive protein (0.098±0.103 vs. 0.062±0.045 g/L, t=-2.132, P=0.037), aspartate aminotransferase (19.7±6.72 vs. 17.3±3.95 U/L, t=-2.231, P=0.028) and creatinine (85.1±12.9 vs. 77.7±11.2 mmol/L, t=-3.162, P=0.002) were significantly higher in the AMS group, while alkaline phosphatase (71.7±18.2 vs. 80.6±20.2 U/L, t=2.389, P=0.019), standard deviation of normal-to-normal RR intervals (126.5±35.9 vs. 143.3±36.4 ms, t=2.320, P=0.022), ejection time (276.9±50.8 vs. 313.8±48.9 ms, t=3.641, P=0.001) and heart rate variability triangle index (37.1±12.9 vs. 41.9±11.1, t=2.020, P=0.047) were significantly lower. Using the Lake Louise Score as the dependent variable, prediction equation were established to estimate AMS: Lake Louise Score=3.783+0.281×eosinophil-0.219×alkaline phosphatase+0.032×PNN50.Conclusions We elucidated the differences of physiological variables as well as noninvasive cardiovascular indicators for subjects after high altitude exposure compared with those at sea level. We also created an acute high altitude reaction early warning equation based on the physiological variables and noninvasive cardiovascular indicators at sea level. 相似文献
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近年来新发传染病频发,在全球范围内造成了巨大的经济和社会损失。气候变化驱动的地球环境改变打破了生态系统平衡,使得野生动物栖息地丧失,并影响病原体及其中间宿主的繁殖、存活、传播及分布范围,从而加剧了新发传染病的风险。由于气候变化、人类活动、生态环境、野生动物与病原体之间的复杂联系,未来应通过多学科和多领域的合作以应对新发传染病的重大挑战。 相似文献