Prognostic Factors in Elderly Patients with Acute Myeloid Leukaemia

Acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) is predominantly a disease of the elderly; the median age of incidence is 64 years, and 60% of all cases are over 60. With improved chemotherapy regimens and maximal supportive care, remission rates of up to 60% may be achieved in selected elderly patients. Whilst intensive chemotherapy is the treatment of choice for fit patients, it may be inappropriate for debilitated patients with poor prognosis disease in whom supportive care or palliative chemotherapy may be more suitable. AML in the elderly exhibits biological differences from AML in younger patients, and elderly patients may be unable to withstand the rigors of the intensive treatment regimens given to younger patients.     

The predictive value of specific immunoglobulin E levels for the first diagnosis of cow''s milk allergy. A critical analysis of pediatric literature

Investigators have tried to identify a level of seric specific immunoglobulin E (IgE) that had a sufficient predictive value to diagnose a food allergy without having will resort to the food challenge. To search in literature, all the studies that have estimated the possibility to identify a level of seric specific cow milk IgE with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 95% for the first diagnosis of cow's milk allergy (CMA) in pediatric age. We have identified six studies, nearly all studies suffer from relevant methodological bias. Proposed cut-off are all different. The studied pediatric populations were highly selected. Also neglecting the methodological bias of the studies and the great difference of value between the proposed cut-off, it always remains to consider that the pre-test probability of having a CMA between the children enrolled in the six studies included in this review is particularly high. The likelihood ratio helps to transfer the results of a study on a diagnostic test just to our population, and it is more realistic rather than to entrust itself to the PPV or the negative predictive value, that are much influenced from the prevalence of the disease in the studied population.     

A model to predict long-term sustained response to interferon therapy in chronic hepatitis C

Interferon therapy is used widely for chronic hepatitis C but only a minority of treated patients achieve a long-lasting sustained response. We have developed, by logistic regression, a mathematical model to estimate the probability of sustained response in an individual patient with chronic hepatitis C when treated with interferon-α (IFN-α). The model, which includes age, sex, disease duration, pretreatment serum γ-glutamyl-transpeptidase, alanine aminotransferase and virus genotype, was developed from a database of 307 patients and validated in a new set of 200 patients. It performed well as goodness-of-fit ( P = 0.71 and P = 0.15 in the development and test sample, respectively) and discrimination (area under receiver operating curve = 0.79 in the development and 0.78 in the test sample, respectively). This model may provide decision support in the treatment of chronic hepatitis C with IFN-α.     

Membrane-coated fiber array approach for predicting skin permeability of chemical mixtures from different vehicles.

A membrane-coated fiber (MCF) array approach was developed for quantitative assessment of skin absorption from chemical mixtures, which was based on the similarity in the absorption mechanisms of the MCF membrane and the stratum corneum of the skin. A set of probe compounds were used to detect the relative molecular interaction strengths of chemicals with the vehicle and the membranes, which provided a linkage between the skin permeability (log k) and MCF partition coefficients (log KF). A predictive model was established via multiple linear regression analysis of the data matrix of experimentally measured log k value and log KFm values; log k=a0+a1 log KF1+a2 log KF2+...+an log KFm, where m is the number of diverse MCFs. Twenty-five probe compounds and three MCFs (polydimethylsiloxane for lipophilic, polyacrylate for polarizable, and CarboWax for polar interactions) were used to demonstrate the model development processes in the MCF array approach. The skin permeability of the probe compounds was measured with conventional diffusion cell experiments using dermatomed porcine skin. Three predictive models were established for skin permeability prediction from chemical mixtures in water, 50% ethanol, and 1% sodium lauryl sulfate (SLS) with R2 values of 93, 91, and 83, respectively. The log k and log KF values were considerably altered by the addition of ethanol or SLS into the dose vehicle; however, their correlations to skin permeability remained strong under various conditions. These results suggested that the experimentally based MCF array approach can be used to predict skin absorption from chemical mixtures in different vehicles or formulations.     

Predictive testing for Huntington's disease: I. Predictors of uptake in South Wales

In Wales, predictive testing for Huntington's disease (HD) has not been offered proactively to families and uptake of testing is low in comparison to other centres. Little is known of those not requesting testing, particularly those not in direct contact with the genetics service. This study examined differences between a cohort of 22 test applicants and a random group of 32 'non-requesters', drawn from the South Wales HD register. Respondents were interviewed by means of a semi-structured schedule in their own homes. The study groups differed significantly on a number of variables including: knowledge of the availability of testing; perceived attitudes of family members and significant others to testing; length of knowledge and perceived stressfulness of being at risk; and perceived ability to cope with an unfavourable result. Overall, knowledge of testing procedures was poor and at-risk individuals' understanding of genetic terminology was at odds with scientific distinctions. Discussion focuses on the organisational and psychological factors associated with lack of knowledge of the availability of testing and the interpretation of reported coping capacities.     

基于FT-CMR的心脏功能评估参数对心房颤动冷冻球囊消融患者治疗后复发的预测效能分析

目的 探讨分析基于心脏磁共振特征追踪技术(FT-CMR)的心脏功能评估参数对心房颤动冷冻球囊消融患者治疗后复发的预测效能。方法 选取2019年6月至2020年12月收治的126例预行冷冻球囊消融术的心房颤动患者为研究对象,术前均进行心脏磁共振检查,根据术后6个月内患者有无复发将其分为窦性心律组72例和房颤复发组54例。比较两组患者左心房应变及应变率参数,采用FT-CMR评估患者心脏功能,并进行单因素、多因素logistic回归分析,探讨FT-CMR心脏功能评估参数对心房颤动冷冻球囊消融术后复发的预测价值。结果 房颤复发组患者女性、高血压、糖尿病、非阵发性心房颤动比例显著高于窦性心律组(P<0.05)。房颤复发组患者左心房总应变(Es)、左心房正向应变率峰值(SRs)、左心房被动应变(Ee)、心室舒张早期负向应变率峰值(SRe)、左心房整体纵向应变(PLAS)参数值低于窦性心律组(P<0.05)。Logistic多因素回归分析结果显示,性别(OR=3.511,95%CI:1.036～11.906)、PLAS(OR=1.089,95%CI:1.039～1.141)是心房颤动冷冻...     

Predicting Emotional Response to Unsuccessful Fertility Treatment: A Prospective Study

The predictive value of a comprehensive model with personality characteristics, stressor related cognitions, coping and social support was tested in a sample of 187 nonpregnant women. The emotional response to the unsuccessful treatment was predicted out of vulnerability factors assessed before the start of the treatment. The results indicated the importance of neuroticism as a vulnerability factor in emotional response to a severe stressor. They also underlined the importance of helplessness and marital dissatisfaction as additional risk factors, and acceptance and perceived social support as additional protective factors, in the development of anxiety and depression after a failed fertility treatment. From clinical point of view, these results suggest fertility-related cognitions and social support should receive attention when counselling women undergoing IVF or ICSI treatment.     

Predictive value of early HCV RNA quantitation for sustained response in nonresponders receiving daily interferon and ribavirin therapy

The prognostic value of early hepatitis C virus (HCV)-RNA load was evaluated among nonresponder patients to previous interferon (IFN) therapy treated with daily IFN and ribavirin. One hundred-six nonresponders (83 men), mean age 44.8 +/- 11 years, were treated with IFN-alpha 2b 3 MU/day for 24 weeks, followed by 3 MU x 3/week for 24 weeks plus ribavirin 1-1.2 g/day for 48 weeks. HCV RNA was quantified by Versant HCV RNA 3.0 assay (Bayer). The predictive values of the baseline and the change in viral load at week 1, 4, and 12 for sustained virological responses were analyzed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, as well as predictive values of >2 log(10) drop from baseline by weeks 1, 4, and 12 in combination with undetectable HCV RNA for sustained virological response. Thirty-two patients (30.2%) were sustained virological responders. The highest area under the curve was obtained at week 4. The unquantifiable HCV RNA level, in combination with at least a 2 log(10) drop in viral load by week 4 and week 12, had a negative predictive value of 96% and 97%, respectively. Nonresponse can be predicted as early as week 4 or week 12 in nonresponders treated with daily IFN and ribavirin.     

The motivation of at-risk individuals and their partners in deciding for or against predictive testing for Huntington''s disease

Sixty-six percent of the at-risk persons and 74% of the partners in a large survey in Belgium have the intention of making use of predictive testing for Huntington's disease. One third of them, however, have expressed the intention of postponing the final decision for various reasons. The intention to be tested is not at all related to sociodemographic characteristics. A thorough exploration of the reasons for being in favour of or against taking the test reveals that the motivation inspiring this very personal decision is very complex. In the group of at-risk persons, less than half of the variation in the intention to be tested is explained by the role of a series of specific reasons as predictor variables in a regression analysis. The proportion of explained variation is slightly higher in the group of partners. 'To have certainty about my own future' and 'to make arrangements for the future' play a major part in the decision of the total group. 'Making decisions concerning children' and to a larger extent 'informing children about their risk status' are important factors in deciding in favour of the test.