Diagnosis and prognostic value of restrictive ventilatory disorders in the elderly: a systematic review of the literature

Although less extensively studied compared to pulmonary obstructive diseases, restrictive lung disease (RLD) is highly prevalent and frequently disabling in the adult and, more, the elderly population. The underlying conditions may be either primarily pulmonary diseases, such as idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, or non respiratory conditions secondarily affecting the lung, e. g. congestive heart failure, or else conditions affecting the lung expansion, e. g. obesity or rib cage deformity. The diagnosis is frequently based on the measurement of surrogate indexes such as the forced vital capacity (FVC) used as a proxy for total lung capacity (TLC). As a consequence, diagnosis of RLD is often characterized by poor specificity. In the elderly, worsening in the quality of life and poor prognosis are variably, but significantly, associated to RLD, being the underlying condition an important source of variability. Several causes of RLD are preventable and treatable conditions. A prompt identification of these conditions may allow to slow the decline of respiratory reserve and, thus, to preserve both personal independence and resistance to acute respiratory infections. This review gives an update on the latest evidence available on the prevalence and the prognosis of RLD in the elderly. Studies were identified through systematic searches of the electronic database MEDLINE. Reference list of eligible papers were also manually searched.     

Variable selection for discrete survival model with frailty in presence of left truncation and right censoring: Studying association of environmental toxicants on time-to-pregnancy

Understanding the association between mixtures of environmental toxicants and time-to-pregnancy (TTP) is an important scientific question as sufficient evidence has emerged about the impact of individual toxicants on reproductive health and that individuals are exposed to a whole host of toxicants rather than an individual toxicant. Assessing mixtures of chemical effects on TTP poses significant statistical challenges, namely (i) TTP being a discrete survival outcome, typically subject to left truncation and right censoring, (ii) chemical exposures being strongly correlated, (iii) appropriate transformation to account for some lipid-binding chemicals, (iv) non-linear effects of some chemicals, and (v) high percentage of concentration below the limit of detection (LOD) for some chemicals. We propose a discrete frailty modeling framework (named Discnet) that allows selection of correlated covariates while appropriately addressing the methodological issues mentioned above. Discnet is shown to have better and stable false negative and false positive rates compared to alternative methods in various simulation settings. We did a detailed analysis of the pre-conception endocrine disrupting chemicals and TTP from the LIFE study and found that older females, female exposure to cotinine (smoking), DDT conferred a delay in getting pregnant, which was consistent across various approaches to account for LOD as well as non-linear associations.     

Statistical Methods for Conditional Survival Analysis

We investigate the survival distribution of the patients who have survived over a certain time period. This is called a conditional survival distribution. In this paper, we show that one-sample estimation, two-sample comparison and regression analysis of conditional survival distributions can be conducted using the regular methods for unconditional survival distributions that are provided by the standard statistical software, such as SAS and SPSS. We conduct extensive simulations to evaluate the finite sample property of these conditional survival analysis methods. We illustrate these methods with real clinical data.     

The development of a brief self-report questionnaire to measure ‘recent’ Rash Impulsivity: A preliminary investigation of its validity and association with recent alcohol consumption

Background

Traditionally, impulsivity has been regarded as a stable trait. However, a series of longitudinal and behavioural laboratory studies has found that impulsivity can fluctuate within individuals, suggesting that it has a state as well as a trait manifestation. Whilst existing impulsivity questionnaires tap the former, there is no self-report instrument to assess recent fluctuations in impulsivity.Research aims and designThe present study set out to develop and undertake preliminary validation of a measure of ‘recent’ impulsivity, focusing in particular on Rash Impulsivity. Part of the construct validation of the resulting Recent Rash Impulsivity Scale (RRIS) entailed examining its association with recent alcohol intake, since there are well-documented reciprocal relationships between alcohol consumption and inhibitory control. In developing the RRIS, items from existing trait impulsivity questionnaires were converted into a ‘previous two weeks’ format. The pilot RRIS was then administered, along with a parallel trait version (Trait Rash Impulsivity Scale; TRIS) and a well-established trait impulsivity measure (the BIS-11; Patton, Stanford & Barratt, 1995), to two cohorts of first-year undergraduates aged 17 to 25 (N = 240), on two occasions one month apart. Information about habitual and recent alcohol intake was also gathered.

Results

Factor analyses on both the RRIS and TRIS identified two factors: ‘Cognitive Impulsivity’ (CogImp) and ‘Motor Impulsivity’ (MotImp). Consistent with the RRIS being sensitive to fluctuations in impulsivity, it was found that, as predicted: i) the RRIS was somewhat less strongly correlated than the TRIS with an established trait measure (the BIS-11; Patton et al., 1995); ii) the test–retest stability of ‘Total’ scores (CogImp and MotImp) was weaker for the RRIS than the TRIS; iii) there was evidence that the RRIS MotImp and Total scales were more strongly predicted by recent alcohol intake than were their trait equivalents; and iv) the RRIS CogImp and Total scales correlated more strongly with their trait equivalents in participants whose alcohol consumption had remained stable recently (relative to their habitual intake), compared to those whose consumption had recently changed.

Conclusions

These data suggest that transient changes in impulsivity can be assessed via self-report, and that the RRIS is sensitive to recent changes in alcohol intake. Subject to a more intensive and detailed validation, it is thus promising as a tool for tapping and characterising fluctuations in behavioural control and for exploring a range of factors to which this might be associated.     

Sleeping sickness in West Africa (1906-2006): changes in spatial repartition and lessons from the past

Objective To review the geography and history of sleeping sickness (Human African trypanosomiasis; HAT) over the past 100 years in West Africa, to identify priority areas for sleeping sickness surveillance and areas where HAT no longer seems active. Method History and geography of HAT were summarized based on a review of old reports and recent publications and on recent results obtained from medical surveys conducted in West Africa up to 2006. Results/conclusions Active HAT foci seem to have moved from the North to the South. Endemic HAT presently appears to be limited to areas where annual rainfall exceeds 1200 mm, although the reasons for this remain unknown. There has also been a shift towards the south of the isohyets and of the northern distribution limit of tsetse. Currently, the most severely affected countries are Guinea and Ivory Coast, whereas the northern countries seem less affected. However, many parts of West Africa still lack information on HAT and remain to be investigated. Of particular interest are the consequences of the recent political crisis in Ivory Coast and the resulting massive population movements, given the possible consequences on HAT in neighbouring countries.