Establishing the Cost-Effectiveness of New Pharmaceuticals under Conditions of Uncertainty—When Is There Sufficient Evidence?

Decisions about which health-care interventions represent adequate value to collectively funded health-care systems are as widespread as they are unavoidable. In the case of new pharmaceuticals, many countries now require formal cost-effectiveness analysis to inform this decision-making process. This requires evidence on parameters associated with health-related utilities, treatment effects, resource use, and costs, for which data from available regulatory trials are invariably absent or highly uncertain. This uncertainty results from a number of factors including the predominance of intermediate end points in the clinical evidence-base and the limited period of follow-up of patients in clinical studies. Despite these imperfections in the evidence base, decisions about whether new pharmaceuticals are sufficiently cost-effective for reimbursement cannot be side-stepped. Data limitations do, however, require the use of rigorous analytical methods to support decision making. Probabilistic decision models and value of information analysis offer a means of structuring decision problems, synthesizing all available data, characterizing the uncertainty in the decision, quantifying the cost of uncertainty, and establishing the expected value of perfect information. This analytical framework is important because it addresses two fundamental questions about new pharmaceuticals. First, is the product expected to be cost-effective on the basis of existing evidence? Second, is additional research concerning the product itself cost-effective? In addressing these questions, the analytical framework can establish when sufficient evidence exists to sustain a claim for a new pharmaceutical to be cost-effective.     

基于实验均方误差F值的基因表达数据最佳聚类评判方法研究

目的 近年来产生了一些用于分析基因表达数据的聚类算法，却很少有关于评价聚类算法方法的研究。本研究的目的是尝试建立一个定量的评价基因表达数据聚类结果的方法。方法 本研究提供了一个系统的评价聚类结果的方法，利用我们提出的实验均方误差F值对几个常见的聚类算法进行比较。结果 利用F值对类质量的评价和利用已有的生物学知识对类进行分析的结果一致。结论 实验均方误差F值可以定量地评判用于基因表达数据的聚类算法。     

利用CO_2培养箱敞开式不换液羊水细胞培养方法的改进

本文对羊水培养方法进行了改进研究,探讨了培养液 pH 值对羊水细胞生长的影响。结果表明用 CO_2培养箱敞开培养,在 CO_2浓度为5.4%时羊水细胞最容易贴壁生长,一次性加液中间不换液可保持细胞生长的微环境稳定,是羊水细胞培养成功的关键。     

医院文化的哲学伦理内核及其在现代医院管理中的重要作用

医院管理不是孤立自存的现象,由于管理者和被管理都生活在一定的医院文化氛围之中,因此,医院文化的哲学内核是现代医院管理知识的精髓,医院组织的价值观念、道德准则和思维方式,深刻地影响和制约着现代医院管理的原则和方法,决定着现代医院管理的实施和成败。     

从信息经济学的角度看病案信息经济价值

本文从信息经济学的角度出发，分析了病案信息的经济价值、市场需求及其开发利用，揭示了病案信息利用对相关市场参与者的利润、效用、福利增进的机制及在疾病控制中的重大作用，指明了加强病案信息开发的重要性和紧迫性，并提出建议。     

50例正常生育力男子精液和血液激素的一年动态观察

作者对南京市50名正常男子,每月1次、连续12个月测定了精液常规、某些精液生化和血清激素水平。结果表明:精子密度每次之间波动范围较大,冬季数值比夏季显著为高(P<0.01)。其它指标包括正常形态精子、活动精子、前向运动级别、精液果糖、硷性磷酸酶、酸性磷酸酶及血清,FSH LH T 则变动不显著。精液常规中除精子密度和各参数关系不明显外,所有其它参数之间呈正相关;但精液常规、精液生化和血清激素三者互不相关。从本组研究结果,作者提出了南京市正常男子这些指标的参考正常值。     

The predictive value of specific immunoglobulin E levels for the first diagnosis of cow''s milk allergy. A critical analysis of pediatric literature

Investigators have tried to identify a level of seric specific immunoglobulin E (IgE) that had a sufficient predictive value to diagnose a food allergy without having will resort to the food challenge. To search in literature, all the studies that have estimated the possibility to identify a level of seric specific cow milk IgE with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 95% for the first diagnosis of cow's milk allergy (CMA) in pediatric age. We have identified six studies, nearly all studies suffer from relevant methodological bias. Proposed cut-off are all different. The studied pediatric populations were highly selected. Also neglecting the methodological bias of the studies and the great difference of value between the proposed cut-off, it always remains to consider that the pre-test probability of having a CMA between the children enrolled in the six studies included in this review is particularly high. The likelihood ratio helps to transfer the results of a study on a diagnostic test just to our population, and it is more realistic rather than to entrust itself to the PPV or the negative predictive value, that are much influenced from the prevalence of the disease in the studied population.     

An Analysis of Chromosome on Sterility Caused by Azoospermia or Oligospermia

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Chronic occupational exposure to organic solvents

Summary Twenty-two persons (20 men and 2 women) were examined for their external and internal exposure to the glycol ether 1-methoxypropan-2-ol (PGME) during the production, leak testing and mounting of brake-hoses. For the measurement of external exposure, personal air monitoring was the method of choice. Average concentrations of PGME of 82.2 mg/m³ (22.3 ppm), 68.6 mg/m³ (18.6 ppm) and 11.3 mg/m³ (3.1 ppm) were found in the air of the brakehose production, leak test and mounting areas, respectively. For the estimation of internal exposure to PGME, this glycol ether was measured in both urine and blood. The biological samples were taken post-shift. The highest internal exposure levels were found in the brakehose production section and in the leak test area. The average post-shift concentrations for PGME in workers in the brakehose production section were 4.6 mg/l in urine and 13.5 mg/l in blood; the corresponding figures for workers in the leak test area were 4.2 mg/l in urine and 11.0 mg/l in blood. In blood and urine samples of workers engaged in the mounting area, PGME levels were below the detection limits. The elimination kinetics of PGME were also studied in three highly exposed persons, and mean excretion half-lives of PGME of approximately 4.4 h were found. On the basis of our results we made a rough calculation of a future biological tolerance value: we would except that concentrations of 38-109 mg per litre of blood and 10–31 mg per litre of urine would correspond to the German MAK value for PGME (375 mg/m³).